SEC Power Poll Ballot: Week Seven
by T Kyle King on Oct 19, 2009 9:54 PM EDT
in Football
74 comments
I’m still pretty bummed out over my sheer stupidity in forgetting to call in to John Frary’s radio show, and I am told that this season has done bad things to my usual decorum and sense of humor, and the weather is cold and wet and dreary, and, man, I’m glad we have an open date, but I don’t even have the energy to make this week’s SEC Power Poll as humorously dark and dour as the SEC Power Poll last year that followed the bloodletting from which both the Georgia Bulldogs and I have yet to recover, so here, without much fanfare, insight, or entertainment value, is how the SEC breaks down this week, at least from my vantage point as a college football blogger who is just counting down the days until women’s gymnastics season:
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0): If you doubt that ‘Bama is No. 1, you’re either a shameless Gator homer or you need to flip the calendar page over from August.
2. Florida Gators (6-0): The Sunshine State Saurians have futzed and fiddled their way to 6-0 in increasingly unimpressive fashion, to the point where it really is time for us all to admit that it isn’t that Florida is that good, it’s that the rest of the SEC East is that bad.
3. LSU Tigers (5-1): Not playing last Saturday cemented the Bayou Bengals claim to being the third-best team in the league. That ought to tell you something about how weak the SEC is this season.
4. South Carolina Gamecocks (5-2): The Palmetto State Poultry demonstrated decisively their rightful status in the top third of the league in a loss. That ought to tell you everything about how weak the SEC is this season.
5. Auburn Tigers (5-2): The Plainsmen may very well be the weakest 5-2 team in the country, unless you count Boston College.
6. Mississippi Rebels (4-2): Ole Miss may very well be the weakest 4-2 team in the country, unless you count Missouri.
7. Arkansas Razorbacks (3-3): The Hogs are starting to hit on all cylinders, assuming, of course, that pigs have cylinders. All right, that was some atrocious word choice right there. That was like a Mitch Hedberg joke that just never came together.
8. Kentucky Wildcats (3-3): On the plus side, I’m now marginally less worried about the Auburn game. On the other hand, I’m now considerably more worried about the Kentucky game. Ah, who am I kidding? I’m always disproportionately worried about Auburn. (I hate Auburn.) My worrying about Auburn has not decreased in the slightest, but my worrying about Kentucky has gone through the roof. Dang it, we’re going 5-7, aren’t we?
9. Tennessee Volunteers (3-3): This past weekend, Monte Kiffin’s defense not only pitched a shutout, it didn’t give up so much as a single yard of total offense! Lane Kiffin is more awesome than all five Backstreet Boys combined. He’s like Kung Fu Panda trapped in Daniel Tosh’s body. (Kudos to ausdawg85 for noting the resemblance.)
10. Georgia Bulldogs (4-3): Beating a team that sucks worse than you do doesn’t make your team suck less. It just means that the other team sucks more.
11. Mississippi St. Bulldogs (3-4): I feel badly about placing MSU this far down, because Dan Mullen rather clearly has put together the best 3-4 team in America. The reclamation project in Starkville was a huge undertaking, but Coach Mullen has made this a much better football team. Just as I am not altogether convinced that Arkansas shouldn’t be ranked higher than Ole Miss, I’m not entirely persuaded that Mississippi State fields the second-best Bulldog squad in the Southeastern Conference.
12. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-5): How bad is Vandy? They just lost to Georgia.
Read it and weep, SEC fans. Now I’m signing off for the night. Say, there’s no chance of bloggers getting furloughed with orders not to answer comments and e-mails, is there? ‘Cause, right now, that would sound like a pretty sweet deal. . . .
Go ‘Dawgs!
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You may have meant that sarcastically . . .
. . . but the statement you made in your subject line is, in fact, obviously true.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on Oct 19, 2009 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions
No, actually...
I was laughing that you think the BCS is a shameless Gator homer because they dont have Bama number 1. Considering the Gators have never been ranked at the top of the BCS, (besides this week), even though we have won the BCS championship twice since it started.
http://www.latimes.com/sports/college/basketball/la-sp-dufresne15-2009oct15,0,914301,full.column
got this from TSK
Yeah, considering the way ESPN has ignored . . .
. . . the Gators and given them no credit while paying no attention whatsoever to Tim Tebow, I can understand your thinking there.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on Oct 19, 2009 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Number 1 vs. Number 2
Number 2 BCS team has won 6 of the past 7 MNC beating the BCS number 1 at the end of the season.
by knowshon loves legos on Oct 20, 2009 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions
I dont have a problem with Bama
being number 1, in the long range of things it really doesnt matter.
But I dont see how you can claim only Gator fans would want UF at number 1, when we are number one in the BCS, and a few other polls, unless you are claiming that the BCS is for the Gators even though they have never been ranked number one in the BCS before…
What does ESPN have to do with anything, they also have Bama ranked over the Gators?
Do you seriously doubt that . . .
. . . ESPN’s relentless pimping of the Gators has no impact on the rankings? (By the way, ESPN’s involvement in the poll has to do with having the rights to release it on the air. Voters not employed by ESPN determine the outcome of that poll.)
Obviously, you’ve read way, way too much into a one-liner, but the bottom line is this: Alabama has played better football against a tougher slate than Florida has. Anyone who denies that is mistaken.
I regret that my glibness confused you. Please try to resist listing 4-2 teams that are weaker than Ole Miss, pointing out that Tennessee didn’t play a game last weekend, or otherwise offering additional indications that you’ve missed the point.
Go 'Dawgs!
Yes
I agree Bama wins are over more impressive teams, and of those wins they looked solid.
Yes your comment wasnt a big deal, but in the huge scheme of things, it just adds to the whole theory…Only reason poeople think Florida is any good is they must be Gay for Tebow and all those other rediculus comments. Heaven forbid if a professional sportscastor actually thinks Floida is a good team without being biased. Theres no way that could happen according to all the Florida haters. I wonder wich one I should believe.
UGA lost position in the polls
Last year with weak performances against teams in the first 3 weeks. Who’s to say UF doesn’t deserve the same fate for not really ‘wowing’ anyone all season, not to mention, they aren’t suffering 3249 season ending injuries as UGA had… in theory, they should be as good/better than last year.
I know in the end, UGA wasn’t a number 1 team, but for the first few weeks we were winning and winning the same way UF has been this season… so why is it different for UF? Because of the reasons TKK points out above.
by knowshon loves legos on Oct 20, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions
The difference
UGA lost in week 5 last season. UF is 6-0. Eventually, even though the wins appear unimpressive, the entire body of work starts to look impressive.
I wish the pollsters would drop us to #4. I don’t care – I think our team would benefit from the added motivation. The fact is, if you go undefeated and play in the SEC, you’ll play for the national championship.
I am also starting to take issue with Alabama’s schedule being so much tougher than ours. The only real difference is that Bama has played one tougher out of conference opponent. After watching Ga Tech treat Va Tech like a bunch of school girls, I’m not quite as impressed with that win anymore. In fact, I think the toughest team played by either team thus far is a night game in Baton Rouge against LSU.
I do not contend that Alabama has looked more impressive so far – they certainly have.
I don’t think that it is quite the runaway that Kyle insinuates.
I’ve seen this comment way too many times this season all over the blogosphere:
“I’m just not that impressed with that win after X team played against Y team on Saturday.”
This nonsense has got to stop. What exactly is an “impressive win” this season? The fact of the matter is, really no team has looked particularly impressive (sans ‘Bama) over the entirety of this season, and Florida’ OOC schedule is a joke that should always be taken into consideration when trying to rank teams. Yeah, Virginia Tech got beat the other night, but I think it’s pretty safe to say that they’re at least worthy of a top 25 ranking. One lousy game and a loss at a neutral site to a consensus Top 2 team in the country does not automatically make that win unimpressive. If you’re gonna play that game, then only beating teams currently in the Top 5 can ever count as being “impressive”.
That, to me, is ridiculous.
by get swoll yunel on Oct 20, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Not really my argument
"I’m just not that impressed with that win after X team played against Y team on Saturday."
VaTech lost on Saturday – pretty badly. They were pushed around the field worse than the score indicates. An impressive win would have been if they had beaten Ga Tech….or if they would have beaten Alabama. They were pushed around by both. Sorry, but I am not impressed with them.
Were you impressed with VT
…when it destroyed an undefeated Miami team? Does your impression of a team just depend on when somebody asks you? If so, doesn’t that say more about you than the team you’re evaluating?
To be honest - no.
I was not and the reason is that I watched the Miami/FSU game and saw two teams with decent offenses and absolutely no defense whatsoever. Being a Gator fan, I watch FSU and Miami pretty closely and I think they are both dreck this season. The ACC is lousy.
Obviously my impressions of teams change as the season goes on.
If your opinions of teams never change during the season, then you just aren’t knowledgable about football.
Erm...
The fact is, if you go undefeated and play in the SEC, you’ll play for the national championship.
If you go undefeated and play in any BCS conference, you will play in the BCS title game unless there are 3 or more undefeated BCS conference teams. There’s nothing special about the SEC there; in fact, the only undefeated BCS conference team to miss the title game was an SEC team (2004 Auburn). There have been no exceptions to this. If Cinci and Iowa run the talbe, and Florida, ’Bama, and Texas all lose a game, then the Bearcats and Hawkeyes will play for the BCS title. Fans of the SEC champion and the USC/Oregon winner and Texas will be up in arms if this happens, but it will happen nonetheless, and will be the correct outcome, given the polls and bowls system.
You are right there
But over the past several seasons, 1 loss (or even 2 loss in LSU’s case) SEC teams have been given the benefit of the doubt over 1 loss teams from other conferences.
Normally, I don't bet on it . . .
. . . but I’d put down cash money that says you’re wrong about that. I think a once-beaten conference champion Alabama, Florida, or Texas team gets the nod ahead of an unbeaten Cincinnati team.
I’m not saying that’s right—-although I’m not saying it’s wrong, either—-but there’s no doubt in my mind it would happen.
Believe it or not, the guys who put up all that money for the BCS bowl games actually care about television ratings. Alabama, Florida, and Texas all have substantially better television profiles than Cincinnati.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on Oct 20, 2009 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Believe it or not, the guys who put up all that money for the BCS bowl games actually care about television ratings. Alabama, Florida, and Texas all have substantially better television profiles than Cincinnati.
And the Bearcats (or any Big East team not named West Virginia, any ACC team not named Virginia Tech, or any non-BCS conference team except Notre Dame) will never get a discretionary BCS at-large bid because of that. But I think it’s extremely likely tthe BCS rankings will have Cinci and Iowa 1-2 if they’re the only major conference unbeatens left at the end of the regular season.
If so, they can air the national championship game on the Big Ten Network . . .
. . . because no one outside the Big Ten’s geographic footprint will watch it.
Whichever once-beaten team wins the SEC championship game leapfrogs at least one of those two teams by virtue of its victory on the first Saturday in December. Count on it.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on Oct 21, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Why would any poll voter except a blatant SEC homer
… think a one-loss SEC champ deserves a spot in the title game ahead of not only two undefeated BCS conference teams, but also a one-loss USC/Oregon winner, a one-loss Texas, and an undefeated TCU or Boise is beyond me. Which is the other reason you’d get the Cinci/Iowa game. West coast voters willing to jump Cinci or Iowa will support the Pac 10 champ. Southwest voters will support Texas. Mountain west voters will support the non-BCS teams (or the Pac 10 champ or Texas). And the midwest and northeast will be firmly behind Cinci/Iowa.
Boise? TCU?
Really? Let’s think about this… if Boise or TCU were to play in the National Championship Game against a 1-loss Florida team, what would the Vegas line be? Or Alabama? Southern Cal? Texas?
I think it’s a virtual certainty that any of those teams would be at least a 14-point favorite over Boise, and all would be at least 10-point favorites over TCU.
To make it to the NCG with such a weak schedule (in Boise’s case) would require them, at a minimum, to blow out everybody they played, which hasn’t happened. TCU plays in the Mountain West, which is a much tougher conference, so all blowouts wouldn’t be necessary, but mostly impressive wins would be, with a close call against maybe BYU or Utah.
I would understand undefeated Cincinnati vs. undefeated Iowa, though I’m not sure I would agree with it. The odds of a non-BCS team playing in the National Championship Game, though… at least, in the 2009 season… are very long.
by vineyarddawg on Oct 21, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not necessarily saying they would deserve it . . .
. . . although I’m not going to assume they wouldn’t, either.
I don’t know how the northeast as a whole would feel, but I know how one portion of the northeast would feel: Bristol, Conn., is home to an organization that has pumped quite a bit of money into the Southeastern Conference. Might their “votes” have some sway?
I think they just might, at that.
Go 'Dawgs!
gotta' disagree on this one
But I think it’s extremely likely tthe BCS rankings will have Cinci and Iowa 1-2 if they’re the only major conference unbeatens left at the end of the regular season.
If you look at the BCS standings, there is a HUGE margin between #2 and #3, and just as precipitous a fall from #3 to #4. A 1 loss SEC could very well jump unbeaten Cincy, who just doesn’t/won’t have the quality wins. Iowa? Probably not…they’ve got Sparty and a floundering OSU left. As long as ‘Zona and PSU and Michigan keep winning, that helps them tremendously. What’s Cincy’s high profile OOC? 4-3 Ore. St.?
"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch
by Stuck in the Plains on Oct 21, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Who does?
I mean, Florida’s best OOC win is going to be a mediocre FSU team (certainly worse than Oregon State). And if they win the SEC with one loss, they lost to a team that’s at best just barely in the top 25 now (and since Meyer has owned South Carolina, it’s more likely they drop a random game to a bad team). Alabama beat Virginia Tech, and at the end of the year I’d bet they win ACC roulette because they usually do, but at best they’re 11-2 after winning the ACC championship, and more likely 10-3. Neither will have played any other BCS conference teams or traditionally good non-BCS conference teams.
Meanwhile Cinci likely finishes with 3 wins over top 25 teams in USF (just outside the top 25 after losing to Cinci, but if they get one win out of WVU, Pitt, and Miami and take care of business against the rest of the Big East, they’ll be back), WVU, and Pitt. Plus respectable wins over Oregon State and Fresno (3-3, but they’ve been blowing out non-Boise WAC teams so far; it wouldn’t be at all surprising if they finish 9-3).
I think the biggest problem with Cincy is the whole
“who got beat by the team you beat” scenario. While I am bullish on Pitt, the rest is dreck: USF’s skeddie is terrible, and I don’t trust them to beat any of the three teams you list. WV is purely illusory, and is not done losing. They likewise won’t have too many decent pelts (Marshall?). Ditto Rutgers and UConn. We can absolutely eliminate wins over L’ville and ’Cuse. The best chance may be for A) Fresno and Ore. St. to go on a run and get ranked.
All that said, the Big East, is actually playing decent ball this year, and just isn’t going to get the love. (by “decent ball” I mean better than most of the ACC).
"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch
by Stuck in the Plains on Oct 21, 2009 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I doubt WVU does worse than splits Pitt/Cinci...
… really, my expectation is that Pitt, Cinci, and WVU rock-paper-scissors each other and run roughshod over the rest of the Big East… meaning the Bearcats end up winning the conference on tiebreakers.
Kind of Extreme
Georgia has beaten numbers 4 and 7 on your list, one of them on the road. I realize this isn’t a strong edition of the Bulldogs, but they’re 3-2 in league play, were somewhat screwed in losing to the number 3 team in your rankings and played one truly miserable game. They’ve looked at least as impressive as anyone from 4-9.
Don't worry about people calling you out on your decorum.
I think you’ve been as reasonable as might be expected of someone who has had a myriad of opposing teams’ fans visiting his blog for the sole purpose of waggling their rear ends in the air. (Mind you, this hasn’t been true of every opposing fan that has posted on this blog… but it sure seems like a lot more than last year, at least.)
And after the past 7 weeks, I think we’ve all got our emotions on somewhat of a shorter leash, anyway.
It does seem like a lot more than last year...
…which is very strange. I would have thought everyone would take their shots last year when we thought we were going to be great and ended us sucking a bit, rather than this year when many figured we would suck, and the results have simply borne that out.
Will
You may notice that SBNation doesn't recognize your strange word choice:
“Mississippi Rebels.” If you want autotagger to work properly, you must use the proper name – Ole Miss Rebels.
Destroying your traditions since [YEAR REDACTED].
Thanks
When did that change, by the way? I ask that because, when I originally used “Ole Miss Rebels,” it didn’t tag it, so I checked and found it was “Mississippi Rebels” . . . which sometimes gets tagged and sometimes doesn’t, based upon no pattern I am able to discern.
Thanks for pointing that out, though. I haven’t been excluding the Rebs on purpose.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on Oct 20, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
So, I must ask again (you totally skirted the question last time)
If Tennessee and Kentucky were playing on a neutral field this coming weekend, which team would you bet on?
Also, FWIW, I think yall beat Kentucky by at least a touchdown + field goal. They have played well the last two weekends. I will give them credit for that. But methinks their regression back to the mean is both inevitable and imminent.
________________________________
Eric Berry is better at football than you.
I don't bet on it . . .
. . . but, based upon each team’s performance in its previous game, I’d pick Kentucky, which beat a good team on the road, over Tennessee, which beat a bad team at home. A regression to the mean may well be imminent, but, based on what I’ve seen so far, I’d give the edge to the Wildcats at this moment. Obviously, that could change completely a week from now.
I’m sorry if I skirted the question last time; I don’t dispute that you asked it, since I’m sure you wouldn’t say you did if you didn’t, but, off the top of my head, I don’t recall it. I try to answer all inquiries honestly and fairly in the spirit in which they are asked. This sometimes gets me into trouble when I respond to snarky sarcasm with snarky sarcasm, but where, as here, I am asked a straightforward and reasonable question, I make every effort to provide a straightforward and reasonable answer. This does not seem to be something with which I any longer am credited in the blogosphere, but it is a standard to which I endeavor to adhere, irrespective of whether opposing fans believe it to be so (as it is increasingly clear that they do not).
Go 'Dawgs!
It was the week 4 version..
…with similarly worded question. This was your response:
I’m not saying Kentucky would beat Tennessee….although, at the moment, I don’t have any particular reason to think the Wildcats won’t win that game, aside from the fact that, for a long time, Kentucky hasn’t won that game. For the moment, though, the ’Cats have done more than the Vols this season.
There is absolutely no need to apologize. I probably should have just taken your response to mean: “I am not a gambling man.”
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Eric Berry is better at football than you.
Not a problem
As I said, I didn’t doubt that you asked it, I just didn’t remember it. Thanks for the clarification.
By the way, since we’re discussing Kentucky, I’ve been curious about this for a while . . . are you from the Bluegrass State? I couldn’t help noticing that Louisville native Cassius Clay is in your avatar, and, since “bourbon” refers specifically to sour mash whiskey made in Kentucky (just as “champagne” refers to sparkling wines made in a particular region of France), I wondered whether there was a connection.
Go 'Dawgs!
Very impressive, Kyle. Nice observations.
Originally, yes. Louisville. My folks are from there, and I (and my brothers) were born there. My parents (and several aunts and uncles) are UofL grads. My grandfather even taught at UofL. I actually didn’t live there very long — my parents moved when I was a youngster. But, yeah, that is definitely where it all started.
(My dad brainwashed me UofL basketball at a very young age, and I still root for the Cards…so long as they aren’t playing Tennessee.)
________________________________
Eric Berry is better at football than you.
Cool
Although everyone in my family is from Georgia and virtually everyone still lives in Georgia, I have a cousin who lived in Louisville for a while.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on Oct 20, 2009 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions
UT and a Louisville fan
My appologies…….j/k
First time I shot her, shot her in the side.
Hard to watch her suffer, but with the second shot she died...
I get basketball and football seasons that way.
At least historically.
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Eric Berry is better at football than you.
FWIW
I also predicted a 10-pt victory for South Carolina over Kentucky two weeks ago (to my fiancee, a perenially pessimistic Gamcock fan), yet the ‘Cocks didn’t put the ‘Cats aways until the final seconds. In fact, the Wildcats’ pffense actually looked much better after their starting quarterback was put out of the game. Kentucky is a much better team with Randall Cobb as their quarterback, and last week’s result against Auburn supports that assertion.
If UK were still using a traditional offense with a mediocre quarterback, I would pick UT over them every day and twice on Saturday, but a UK team with Randall Cobb at the helm is neither traditional nor mediocre. Georgia fans are worried about that game, and I would argue that the Tennessee faithful should be as well.
"If I had eight hours to cut down a tree, I'd spend six hours sharpening my axe." -Abraham Lincoln
by Tree Dawg Knight on Oct 20, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I would take UT over UK
That offense isn’t going anywhere against Tennessee’s defense – not with Cobb, not with Hartline, not even with Lorenzen. Of course, that is assuming that UT just pounds the ball on offense and Crompton doesn’t try to be a hero.
Fair enough...
I can see both sides of the coin. Yet if Tennessee were to play Auburn next week on a neutral field, who would you pick? Auburn, one would assume, wouldn’t do anything against Tennessee’s defense. The results from three weeks ago, however, beg to differ. You can’t assume that no team can move the ball effectively against Tennessee just because your team couldn’t move the ball effectively against Tennessee, which I believe is what you are doing. Your team has not moved the ball effectively against LSU or Arkansas, either, yet the hapless Washington (against LSU) and UGA (against Arkansas) offenses made those defenses look pathetic. That’s why we play the games!
"If I had eight hours to cut down a tree, I'd spend six hours sharpening my axe." -Abraham Lincoln
by Tree Dawg Knight on Oct 20, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
That was not my assumption
I have seen KY struggle offensively all season. UT has a strong defense.
To answer your Auburn question, I would probably call it a pick ’em. Having not seen Auburn play this season other than just a little agaist Kentucky, I would predict a low scoring game.
I would take UT over UK...
…but I doubt vegas would give me the option of simply choosing the winner (at least not at even money). If the game were played today at a neutral site this weekend, it would likely be UT -5.5. Or thereabouts.
________________________________
Eric Berry is better at football than you.
Why do I write half my comments in gibberish?
“If the game were played today at a neutral site this weekend”
wow.
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Eric Berry is better at football than you.
It's all right
We knew what you meant.
If you think comment threads are bad, try transcribing a normal everyday human conversation. It’s amazing how incoherent most of what we say is.
Go 'Dawgs!
Kidbourbon question
You seem to have a good feel for Vegas lines and trends, so just for fun, what do you think the line would be if Alabama were playing Florida this weekend (assuming a neutral site)?
I have come to really apprecaite Vegas lines – those guys are damn good at what they do.
Interesting that you say that.
I have a little ritual that I do every Monday. I print out the schedule for the next week’s games and set the lines myself. Takes about five minutes. And then whenever the actual lines are posted I compare them to my lines.
I have been doing this little ritual for the past two (maybe three) seasons, and I definitely feel like I have gained a better understanding of why the vegas lines are what they are (i.e. not predictors of outcome; predictors of public perception). And I have gotten pretty decent at predicting the lines.
In response to your question, I think it would be Alabama -2. Give or take.
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Eric Berry is better at football than you.
I do the same thing...
… and I think that’s about right. I might make it Bama -4… give bettors that field goal+ margin to entice a little more action.
by vineyarddawg on Oct 22, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Considering the point of Vegas lines
it should be no surprise to anyone that the lines have nothing to do with actually trying to predict the outcome. Their goal is to make money, not predict outcomes. Thus they want to devise odds (lines) that entice people to bid while at the same time minimizing their risk of having to pay out. So I suspect they actually have “predict outcome” as part of the process for devising actual odds offered, but that this is then countered with “predict perception” to create the actual line. In other words, it’s all about understanding the goal.
nodding my head in agreement
Everything you said is correct. And yet it seems that a large percentage of people — and not just the dumb ones — fail to understand this very fundamental principle.
Sportsbooks are not in the business of gambling. It’s simply not their business model. This is why the lines shift. I suspect I am preaching to the choir.
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Eric Berry is better at football than you.
Very timely note on TSK
I read this from Year 2 right after reading the above. He claims Vegas has UF right now -3 over Bama on a neutral field. I am not sure what his exact source is.
I know the lines move and if this one started at UF -3 right now, my guess is there would be a ton of action piling on the Alabama side. I’m not sure that I can remember a line moving from one team to anothers. I’ve seen it move from a pick to one side or vice versa, but surely can’t think of one that moved as far as one team -3 to the other team being favorite.
I agree with you that the public perception is that Alabama is better team right now.and 2 points sounds right. It would be the first time the Gators would be playing as an underdog since probably the ‘07 game at LSU (They were ranked #1 and we were 9th so I’m assuming we were underdogs then). I’m sure there is some betting website that can verify that, no?
I don't know much about that site (vegasinsiders)...
…or who the Las Vegas Sports Consultants are. But I highly suspect that they are not in fact actual vegas oddsmakers. I just can’t imagine that the guy setting the odds for, let’s say, the MGM grand sportsbook in Vegas, has a blog where he gives sneak peek’s of what future odds might look like. I will check it out, though.
Two points:
1) Yes, I have seen lines move from one team being favored to the other team being favored. Happens all the time. A five point shift in a line would be substantial, but certainly not unprecedented. To provide perspective, there is usually at least one game per week where the line at kickoff is three points away from where it started.
2) I don’t know enough about vegasinsiders to question its legitimacy, or make a claim that I am smarter than the people who write for it. But I do think they are wrong if they are predicting an opening line of UF -3. I don’t believe that would (or will) be the opening line. Maybe it could open up as a pick-em. Maybe. But I think it more likely that Bama would be slightly favored.
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Eric Berry is better at football than you.
I would check it out right now, but I'm behind a pesky firewall.
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Eric Berry is better at football than you.
vegas insiders
Yeah, that’s just your run of the mill gambling website. They want to appear as knowledgeable as possible so you pay for their picks.
I’m sticking with my original projection. Of course, we will never know who was correct on this point as Bama will be handed their first loss of the season in….oh, about T minus 39 hours.
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Eric Berry is better at football than you.
LVSC and vegasinsider.com
LVSC is actually the group that sets the lines that a substantial number of vegas casinos use. They’re very well respected. Vegasinsider.com (singular, not “insiders”) is a good site for tracking consensus spreads on pretty much anything, and they do work with LVSC pretty often, from what I’ve seen.
The quote in the article was
LVSC Chief Operating Officer Kenny White and his staff would’ve sent out Florida as a five-point favorite against Alabama on a neutral field but now they believe 3 is a better number.
When I read that, what I hear is that if Florida and Bama were playing tomorrow, Florida would be the 3-point favorite (for real).
(And I’d take Bama.)
by vineyarddawg on Oct 23, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
The website you are looking for...
….Is called “The Gold Sheet”, if my memory serves me correctly. It has archived spreads going back several years. Give it a google. I would google it right now, but I presently find myself behind a fascist firewall.
I think I remember the game you are referring to. It was at LSU, no? I don’t recall who was favored. Gold Sheet will tell you…if that is the correct site.
One time when Florida was DEFINITELY the underdog was when they played Ohio State in the BCS championship game. Ohio State was favored by 7.5, if I recall. I took the Florida on the moneyline and made a nice chunk of change. I mean, I would have made a nice chunk of change if gambling were legal.
[In case you are not much into sports gambling, the “moneyline” is where you pick the outright winner, rather than picking against a spread. If you take the moneyline on an underdog, you get paid out at increased odds (e.g., if you put $100 on the Tennessee moneyline against Florida this year (i.e. you bet on Tennessee to win the game outright) a Tennessee win would have made you $3,000). You were probably already familiar with the concept…but just in case.]
________________________________
Eric Berry is better at football than you.
My memory did serve me correctly
http://www.goldsheet.com/gs_new/histcfb.php
Florida was +7 against LSU in ’07. They covered.
________________________________
Eric Berry is better at football than you.
There are lots of websites that now offer historical spreads.
… just FYI.
by vineyarddawg on Oct 23, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Interesting site
Lot’s of good historical betting info on there.
I agree
I now live in Kentucky and am friends with UK fans. I tell them that they are better off with Cobb at quarterback running more option plays. Yes, I’m biased toward option offense, not just because of Tech’s current success but because in my lost teens I followed Dooley’s veer with Ray Goff at QB. It’s a valid choice, and I think Kentucky has a quarterback that can make it work.
Certainly, we Georgia fans . . .
. . . are in no position to speak ill of Randall Cobb as a quarterback.
He’s a fine bounty hunter, too, but that’s a separate conversation.
Go 'Dawgs!
I attended the South Carolina/Kentucky game this year...
…and the whole complexion of the game changed once Randall Cobb entered as quarterback. For three quarters, Kentucky couldn’t muster decent run if its mother’s life depended upon it. Enter Cobb at QB, and they start running the ball down Carolina’s throat. I believe that if Cobb had been at QB for an extra drive or two, they could have won the game. If I were a KY fan, I would be frustrated that my coaches weren’t adjusting their personnel to fit the strengths of this team it isn’t basketball season yet.
Wait, it’s not basketball season yet is it? Nevermind, I don’t care either way.
"If I had eight hours to cut down a tree, I'd spend six hours sharpening my axe." -Abraham Lincoln
by Tree Dawg Knight on Oct 21, 2009 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions
No reason for Cobb to not be the QB during the 2 pt conversion play
Horrid play call by Joker Phillip son that one. Cobb single handedly put UK back in the game.
Randall Cobb is a beast.
First time I shot her, shot her in the side.
Hard to watch her suffer, but with the second shot she died...
Is Randall Cobb a combination of Tex Cobb and Josh Randall?
Cobb scares me more than Hartline did___but Cobb is the kind of QB that looks like a world beater or beats hell out of his own team. Cobb doesn’t really play QB though, does he? Didn’t they play 3 at that position last weekend. I’m glad UGA plays Ky at home__they seem always to play us tough up there, even though UGA usually ultimately wins.
Alabama’s QB really is not impressive, but direct snaps to Ingram (sp?) are. It will be interesting to see how UT’s defense hold up against the Tide. I think they’ll do o.k.
Speaking of pig cylinders, if Mallett had been hitting on at least 4 against UF last weekend, then the botched interference call in favor of UF wouldn’t have mattered. He really stunk it up throwing the ball. Is he really good or is UGA’s secondary that poor? Don’t answer that.
Finally, Alabama is not number one in the BCS because, despite my best efforts for 40 years, the rest of the nation is oblivious to the fact that GATORS EAT BOOGERS!
I think the word is getting out
Those bumper stickers are doing a fine job of sending the message. :)
Go 'Dawgs!
I guess it speaks to the quality of your blog, T Kyle, since it seems like all the fans of other SEC teams have to come here if they want to talk football.
"When life gives you lemons, just say 'F*ck the lemons,' and bail."
by Bravely going forward on Oct 20, 2009 8:53 PM EDT reply actions
I’m just surprised that a championship team like the Gators wouldn’t have its own decent forum for discussion. What’s up with that?
"When life gives you lemons, just say 'F*ck the lemons,' and bail."
by Bravely going forward on Oct 21, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
You would think
but alas, it’s just not the case. There are a decent amount of Gator blogs, but none of them touch this one as far as traffic and fresh content. I can actually read more about my team on this board than on the Gator site! But I mostly visit here to get excellent analysis on the Dawgs and SEC in general, and to see what UGA fans are thinking about the Gators.
I am married to a UGA girl – so it’s important that I know what I’m talking about when it comes to the Dawgs, lest I embarrass her at parties and social events (as if my jorts don’t do that already……what?! I’m wearing the orange shirt with them – orange and blue go together, right? Now pass me a Natty Light, please)
I’ll take a PBR, thank you. ;)
"When life gives you lemons, just say 'F*ck the lemons,' and bail."
by Bravely going forward on Oct 23, 2009 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions
TKK's appraisal of the SEC this season
Dang it must be cold and dreary in Georgia. I realize that at times when your team is not setting the world on fire it tends to color all other aspects of life. It’s like when momma ain’t happy, ain’t nobody happy. While it is true that no team has come out as a truly dominant team a lot of the SEC’s problems may be other SEC teams. When it all shakes out, I think the SEC will do us proud. Maybe TKK needs a little Florida vacation. A little sunshine and bourbon can do wonders for a man’s outlook. As far as the quality of the blog, I concur.
Maybe TKK needs a little Florida vacation.
Or perhaps a little retreat to Sea Island, Ga., for a well deserved rest at the 5-star resort thereupon.
by vineyarddawg on Oct 21, 2009 3:59 AM EDT up reply actions
FWIW
I don’t think you’ve lost your decorum (TKK)…Hell, I think the hook was actually faster last year when the Dawgs were expected to do big things. Anyway, as for those who question why fans of other teams frequent these haunts, I can tell you that I personally enjoy the intelligence, the writing, the humor, and the sport: It’s not to troll, and it’s not to make nasty comments, or otherwise denigrate the team/coaching/players…Sorry some feel that no one outside of Athens can add to the discussion, or that outside observations don’t merit even a smidgen of consideration. The game is important, and the league is important to us all obviously. Those things don’t cease to be relevant just because we support others with different jerseys….except UT and Auburn…screw those guys.
"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch
by Stuck in the Plains on Oct 21, 2009 2:23 PM EDT reply actions
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