Dawg Sports: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:



Around SBN: Check out our NFL Scoreboard: scores, schedule and blogs Bar-right-arrows



spread the word

Don't Bet On It!: National Games of Interest

Aside from the biggies (war, poverty, famine, etc.), there are five things in the world that truly, utterly stink: wet socks, Monday mornings, Atlantic Coast Conference football, my skills as a prognosticator, and the September 6 slate of college gridiron games not involving Southeastern Conference competitors.

The penultimate item on that list deserves inclusion despite the fact that, in last week’s national picks, I posted an 8-0 record that included predictions of East Carolina’s and Utah’s upset victories. Evidence in support of the final contention listed above is offered in the following slate of contests of national (for want of a better word) significance, with respect to which I must caution you that my luck obviously is about to run out after a perfect opening weekend, so, please, whatever you do . . . Don’t Bet On It!:

Brigham Young at Washington: The beleaguered Huskies, formerly the bellwether of the Pac-10 during the height of the Don James era, hit rock bottom last weekend, losing 44-10 at Oregon in a game embattled U.W. coach Tyrone Willingham guaranteed his team would win. The Cougars are expected not only to win the Mountain West but to make a run at a B.C.S. bowl game. You can’t see me right now, but this is what my face looks like when I ain’t buying it. In 2006, Washington hosted W.A.C. giant-killer Fresno State, which was one year removed from nearly upending top-ranked Southern California. The Huskies won. In 2007, Washington hosted Boise State, which was one year removed from its classic Fiesta Bowl victory over Oklahoma and riding a 14-game winning streak. The Huskies won. In 2008, Washington will host B.Y.U., which is one year removed from an 11-2 campaign featuring a second straight Las Vegas Bowl triumph over a Pac-10 opponent. The Huskies will win.

Oregon State at Penn State: Am I the only one who finds it odd that the Beavers are traveling all the way across the continent just so they can play a road game at Beaver Stadium? Who’ll be singing the national anthem, Jerry Mathers? Western swings have not been kind to S.E.C. squads, but we’re not the only ones, as road trips to the eastern half of the country have caused O.S. problems in recent years. The Beavs’ most recent regular-season trips have resulted in an autumn-opening heartbreaker at L.S.U. in 2004, a 63-27 setback at Louisville in 2005, and a 34-3 loss at Cincinnati in 2007. It will be a moral victory for Oregon State if the Beavers just manage to be competitive, but, if I said I thought the team that coughed it up to Stanford was capable of going on the road and beating P.S.U., I’d be Lion.

Admittedly, that was a bad joke, but it wasn’t as bad as Oregon State’s uniforms.

Cincinnati at Oklahoma: Speaking of the Bearcats, I told you already that this will be a good game (and I was right on the first two such forecasts I made, wasn’t I?). Most of the attention focused on the Big East’s current incarnation has been directed elsewhere---at Louisville initially; at Rutgers and South Florida more recently; at West Virginia since 2005---but, in the meantime, Cincy quietly has constructed a respectable program. The ‘Cats will prove they belong, but O.U. will walk away with the win, even if the home team starts to pull away later rather than Sooner. (All right, that’s two in a row; I’ll cut it out now, I promise.)

Houston at Oklahoma State: Quick . . . renewal of a dormant conference rivalry or first meeting between the two teams? Although they missed out on being Southwest Conference competitors---the Cowboys left the league after 1924; the Cougars joined up in 1976---they actually overlapped in the Missouri Valley Conference for half a dozen seasons, from 1951 to 1956. (During that span, Houston took five of six from O.S.U., but no more than eight points separated them in four of those contests. The two teams continued to play annually through 1961, the Cowboys’ second season in the Big Eight.) New Houston coach Kevin Sumlin is looking for his first Division I-A victory after a home date with Southern in which the Cougars won the game but lost the halftime show. As much as I’m tempted to take Houston in the upset---the Cougs scared Alabama last year and Miami (Florida) the year before that---I don’t think the Conference USA frontrunner can close the deal against a B.C.S. conference school on the road. The Pokes will rope the Cougars.

(Obligatory Mike Gundy press conference photograph.)

West Virginia at East Carolina: Can the Pirates come down from their program-defining win over Virginia Tech in time to pull off an even bigger upset over the Mountaineers in Greenville? Nope. The depleted Hokies were ripe for being beaten, as V.P.I. fielded a team noticeably light on returning starters in many areas (especially on defense) yet possessing one returning starter too many in Sean Glennon. W.V.U., despite similarly large losses on the defensive side of the ball, brings back Noel Devine and Pat White. The Mountaineers lately have made a habit of beating E.C.U.---twice in the last five years, they have handed the Pirates setbacks by 48-7 final margins---and I believe that is one trend West Virginia will continue this autumn.

Georgia Tech at Boston College: Ah, yes. Two teams that traded down when leaving major conferences, each near the bottom of the sports pecking order in its own hometown and coached until a season or so ago by a sideline stalker with the resting heart rate of an oak tree, both sharing their cities with prestigious private institutions by which they fear they are overshadowed and possessing recent wins over Notre Dame that are more devalued than the dollar. Welcome to the bland dull world that is A.C.C. football! With another in a series of what charitably are described as "down" years evidently in store for the league, this could be a preview of the conference title game, assuming the Eagles and the Yellow Jackets play in different divisions. (I could look that up, but I refuse to do so on general principle.) If only because I will enjoy seeing the Ramblin’ Wreck set up for a subsequent fall, I’m picking Georgia Tech, although I will be rooting for Boston College.

Vive indifference!

Those are the picks for this week, but, as always, my prognosticating ability, which is not impressive even in the S.E.C. arena, is even worse when it comes to other conferences, so proceed with caution and, no matter what, remember: Don’t Bet On It!

(On an almost entirely unrelated note, I hate to say I told you so . . . but I told you so!)

Coming soon: National Game of Disinterest.

Go ‘Dawgs!

0 recs | Comment 11 comments | Digg!

Read Related

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Mine for the weekend

South Carolina Under 41.5
South Carolina -9.5
Ball State -7
UTEP + 27 (really would like 28)
Nevada +10.5
Duke +7
Maryland -13
BYU -9.5
Central Michigan +24
Louisiana Monroe +14
Marshall + 21.5
Louisiana Tech +14
Cincinatti + 21.5
Pittsburgh -13.5
Memphis -3
Boston College -6.5
GT/ BC Under 40
West Virginia -7
Arizona State -13.5
Notre Dame -23 (don’t take -24)
Florida -21.5 (I’d lay up to 24 with this. Miami is nowhere close)
Wyoming -3

Unique analysis of the 'Noles and the national CFB Landscape at HTTP://www.FSUncensored.blogspot.com

by FSUncensored on Sep 4, 2008 3:57 PM EDT   0 recs

I strongly disagree on Washington and Ga Tech, but I love the Okie State and West Virginia Picks.

Unique analysis of the 'Noles and the national CFB Landscape at HTTP://www.FSUncensored.blogspot.com

by FSUncensored on Sep 4, 2008 4:01 PM EDT   0 recs

Here are my picks now with explanations:

Ball State -7 Nate Davis is a legitimate NFL prospect at quarterback for Ball State.

UTEP + 27 Texas should be less than motivated.

Nevada +10.5 Texas Tech is one of my favorite teams to watch. They have no motivation to go to this game in the desert.

Duke +7 Northwestern is the better team. Less people know how not-terrible Duke is.

Maryland -13 (There are some 12.5’s available) Maryland Struggled with Delaware last week, but Delaware is probably bettee than MTSU.

BYU -9.5 Washington is horrible. Watch everyone’s upset pick get blown out. Again.

Central Michigan +24.5 (Get the hook) People are taking UGA and know nothing about CMU. This line is inflated. LeFevour is legit and this is a look ahead game for this overrated Bulldog squad.

Louisiana Monroe +14 Arkansas does not have the personnel to run their system yet.

Marshall + 21.5 Look ahead game for Wisconsin, as Fresno comes into town next week.

Louisiana Tech +21 Riding the Bulldogs again.

Cincinnati + 21.5 Oklahoma is a really good team. Brian Kelly is a very good coach. I’ll take the points.

Pittsburgh -13.5 Pittsburgh lost to Bowling Green, but as Doc Saturday pointed out, they played better than the score indicated. Pitt will beat Buffalo by 21.

Memphis -3 Memphis rolled up 500 yards on Ole Miss in The Grove. They’ll have no trouble against Rice. Rice should be a 7 point underdog here, but they aren’t because people saw them kill Southern Miss on national TV.

Rice/ Memphis OVER 66 Please. This game will be 42-32, Memphis.

Boston College -7 (Missed the 6.5) BC can limit Dwyer up the middle with their huge defensive tackles. Georgia Tech isn’t ready for this game.

BC Under 38 I expect an ugly game here. 23-10, BC.

West Virginia -7.5 This line is an overreaction to last week’s ECU win over Virginia Tech. I really like ECU, but not here.

Arizona State -13.5 Stanford allowed tons of yardage against OSU in their opening week. I took Stanford last week and will now fade them, as ‘Zona State shouldn’t turn the ball over quite as much. The Sun Devils roll them.

Notre Dame -22 San Diego State is atrocious. Notre Dame has a lot of talent. I expect them to score 50 here.

Florida -22.5 Miami is not in the same league as the Gates. UM 14, UF 42.

Wyoming -3 This line should be 7. Since it is now, we’re taking Wyoming.

Minnesota +5 I don’t understand this line. Oh wait, yes I do: an overreaction to the win last weekend.

Unique analysis of the 'Noles and the national CFB Landscape at HTTP://www.FSUncensored.blogspot.com

by FSUncensored on Sep 5, 2008 5:05 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Right conclusion, wrong reasons

I don’t think Georgia is overrated and I’m absolutely certain this isn’t a lookahead game for the ‘Dawgs. A week after losing the No. 1 ranking by not dispatching an overmatched opponent by a wide enough margin, the Bulldogs will be looking past a team that took a Big Ten opponent to the wire in last year’s bowl game so they can focus on a team that has lost two in a row to Vandy? Not likely.

However, you’re right that the spread is insane . . . not because Georgia isn’t capable of beating Central Michigan by as wide a margin as Georgia Southern, and not because the Chippewas have shown much ability to score points on the road against B.C.S. conference teams not named Kentucky, but because Mark Richt teams simply substitute too liberally and show too much class ever truly to blow out the opposition.

As an aside, I would note that I neither bet on nor condone betting on college football and, since lines are designed to do nothing other than encourage 50 per cent of gamblers to bet one way and 50 per cent to bet the other way, they should be taken as utterly meaningless where predictive value is concerned.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Sep 6, 2008 9:21 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I would never condone such degenerate action

If I did, hypothetically, those would be my selections.

I agree that UGA is totally capable of crushing CMU 45-0. My argument that this line is 3 points too high because of the one-sided action, still stands.

The idea that the line is only designed to draw in 50% of action is the base theory, but in practice, some lines are made for other purposes.

Go Dawgs. Crush those Gates.

Unique analysis of the 'Noles and the national CFB Landscape at HTTP://www.FSUncensored.blogspot.com

by FSUncensored on Sep 6, 2008 10:32 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

True . . .

. . . for one thing, early-season lines tend to be more one-sided, in order to instill a false sense of confidence in tentative bettors. It’s the three-card monte of point spread-setting.

I quite agree that the line is too high. A 24-point win, I can see. More than that could happen, but probably won’t.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Sep 6, 2008 11:54 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Being an ACC fan

This weekend, I realized what it’s like to be an ACC fan.

Rooting for the ACC is like when you go to a party, and you bring a friend—whom you may not even really like—whom no one else knows. He goes on to make inappropriate passes at the host’s girlfriend, breaks something expensive, and just generally acts like a jerk all night. You’re then left to apologize and/or vouch for him, because, well… he’s your friend. That’s what it’s like to be an ACC fan.

I hate my conference.

by Ramblin Jeff on Sep 4, 2008 4:37 PM EDT   0 recs

UH vs. OSU

TKK,

To further your post I figured I would add that while I agree with the prediction, if OSU doesn’t bring their A game to Stillwater on Saturday they are going to lose that football game. I was at the UH game this past weekend and granted it was against Southern, the UH offense impressed me in a big way. My biggest concern for the Cougars going against a Big 12 opponent would be the size disparity on both sides of the ball along the lines. If they can stand their ground they might just walk out with a W.

Your right on the money about the battle of the bands. The Southern halftime show was certainly entertaining. On the flip side of the coin the rest of the game they were what I would classify as a combination of annoying and classless. All but one or two UH on field presentations during the game were more or less ruined by the Southern band and their jackass director firing up right as the stadium announcer started in on his announcement concerning the presentation that was being conducted on the field. I can only imagine that this was their way of making up for the fact their team was en route to a 55-3 drubbing at the hands of the Coogs!

Go Dawgs!

by Texan_Dawg on Sep 4, 2008 6:08 PM EDT   0 recs

I agree on some points

such as LA Monroe and Arizona State. But a few poinst of interest:

Lead pipe lock – Texas Tech/Nevada over 67. Does either know how to stop each other? More importantly, do they care if they stop each other? No, and no. It goes over by at least 17 points.

DO NOT take Pitt. I live in Pittsburgh, and can tell you that they’re a fraud. Wannstedt is a cheerleader for head coach, with an offensive coordinator in Matt Cavanaugh that plays 60 minutes like he’s protecting a 35 point lead. They are publicly getting ready for Iowa. Do not touch.

Temple +7 over UConn. Don’t laugh. Temple is going to a bowl game this year, and they are pretty decent. And I’ll ride their horse until the rest betting public boots me off.

P.S. And considering I just made a killing off the Vandy moneyline, take my word for it.

by blogue20 on Sep 4, 2008 11:45 PM EDT   0 recs

Crowd at championship game!

Pitiful crowd for a conference championship game.

It's a gas, gas, gas.

by Keith Richards on Sep 5, 2008 8:54 AM EDT   0 recs

Well, Ball State got it done.

Unique analysis of the 'Noles and the national CFB Landscape at HTTP://www.FSUncensored.blogspot.com

by FSUncensored on Sep 5, 2008 10:20 PM EDT   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation community devoted to the Georgia Bulldogs.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Small
Why cant we vary our O? And Dreaming Of JESSICA ALBA
Small
What are reasonable expectations?
Small
I know yall hate Auburn
Small
What about a lil UGA option?
Small
Kick Ass Gators Man Cave
Small
I know it's early...
Small
What is the difference......
Small
Finally, New Kicker at Georgia....
Small
UGA BAND
Small
The Munson Tribute

Post_icon New FanPost All FanPosts Carrot-mini


Managers

Beard_47_series_wins_and_42_points_in_2007_small T Kyle King

ad

Site Meter