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Week Five BlogPoll Ballot Submitted

As I promised last week, I scrapped all previous ballots of mine altogether, abandoned as many preconceptions as it is possible to cast aside, and went with straight resume ranking on this ballot. That is to say, I’m going not with how I think the teams will finish or which teams I think would beat other teams on a neutral field next Saturday, but with what particular teams have accomplished on the field.

Naturally, there is some subjectivity even to this, but it represents a good faith attempt to throw off unfounded prejudgments in favor of actual results. Any constructive criticisms should address the ways in which I have done this poorly. In other words, if I have Vanderbilt ranked ahead of Louisiana State (and I do), it is no retort to tell me that the Bayou Bengals would obliterate the Commodores. I know they would and you know they would, but, since we all "knew" Southern California would beat Oregon State (and, last year, Stanford), I’m trying to steer clear of prospective knowledge that may be wrong and rely on prior events that are matters of historical fact.

Here is my top 25 for this week:

RankTeamDelta
1 Alabama 8
2 Oklahoma 3
3 Penn State 7
4 Utah 7
5 South Florida 7
6 Missouri --
7 Virginia Tech 12
8 Southern Cal 7
9 Wake Forest 6
10 Wisconsin 3
11 Vanderbilt 11
12 LSU 9
13 Texas 6
14 Maryland 12
15 Boise State 5
16 Georgia 14
17 California 9
18 Ohio State 4
19 Florida 15
20 Oregon 1
21 Texas Tech 3
22 Connecticut 4
23 Auburn 2
24 Brigham Young 16
25 Oklahoma State 1

Dropped Out: Kansas (#16), Nebraska (#17), East Carolina (#18), Clemson (#23).

In my mind, there were three frontrunners for the No. 1 ranking: Alabama (5-0), Oklahoma (4-0), and Penn State (5-0). I ranked them in that order not because it had the virtue of being alphabetical, but instead for the following reasons:

  • The Crimson Tide, unlike the Sooners and the Nittany Lions, did not sully their schedule with a Division I-AA opponent. Yes, Western Kentucky is a lower-tier Division I-A independent, but that merely places the Hilltoppers somewhere between Navy and Army in terms of quality. That counts for little, but it counts for more than wins over U.T.-Chattanooga and Coastal Carolina.


  • Penn State has not beaten a Division I-A opponent with a winning record and two of the Lions’ wins have been over Syracuse and Temple (both 1-4). Home wins over the Beavers and the Illini---both of whom are sitting at .500---are not comparable to victories over Cincinnati (3-1) and Texas Christian (4-1), which Oklahoma can claim.


  • Only one of Alabama’s wins came against a team with a losing record and, of the major-conference unbeatens, the Tide clearly have the best pair of quality wins, over Clemson (3-2) and Georgia (4-1).

Dang it.

The fourth spot went to Utah (5-0) on the strength of the Utes’ close road victories over Michigan (2-2) and Air Force (3-1). These wins boosted Utah’s unblemished ledger above that of South Florida (5-0), which has only a close home win over Kansas (3-1) to its credit. The Bulls’ other victories over Division I-AA Tennessee-Martin, Florida International (1-3), and N.C. State (2-3) carry little weight, particularly in light of the fact that U.S.F. needed overtime to beat Central Florida (1-3).

While I am a big believer in Missouri (4-0), I cannot conscientiously rank the Tigers higher until they play someone of substance. Wins over a pair of .500 teams (Illinois and Nevada), plus demolitions of schedule fodder like Division I-AA Southeast Missouri State and Buffalo (2-3), have shown us little, even though Mizzou dominated its weak slate in the expected manner.

No. 7 Virginia Tech (4-1) was not helped by the further devaluation of its loss to East Carolina (3-2), but the Hokies were upended by the Pirates in a close game on the road, and V.P.I. has since beaten Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Nebraska, all of whom are 3-1 and two of whom Frank Beamer’s club beat (albeit by close margins) on the road.

The Trojans’ loss in Corvallis caused them to drop, but U.S.C.’s quality win over Ohio State (4-1) kept Pete Carroll’s crew in the top ten. Among the Pac-10 contenders, Southern California has the worst of the losses but the best of the wins. The Demon Deacons check in at No. 9 even in the wake (sorry) of a narrow loss to Navy (3-2) because the Deacs have wins over three B.C.S. conference teams who are at or above .500, two of which came on the road. Wake Forest’s victories over Ole Miss (3-2) and Florida State (3-1) acquired added value following the Rebels’ victory over Florida in Gainesville and the Seminoles’ victory over Colorado in Jacksonville.

The Gateway City . . . always a haven for quality Atlantic Coast Conference football!

Although the Badgers were beaten by the Wolverines in a close contest, their lone loss was on the road, as was their best win (over Fresno State), and only one of Wisconsin’s wins came against a team with a losing record. For those reasons, Wiscy finished in front of the Buckeyes for the second spot among Big Ten teams.

Like it or not, the Commies are my No. 11 team after beating a trio of 3-2 squads, including South Carolina and Ole Miss. That gives Vandy a better record of achievement at this point in the season than L.S.U. can claim, inasmuch as the Fighting Tigers have beaten Division I-AA Appalachian State, North Texas (0-4), and Mississippi State (1-4). Louisiana State’s biggest win (at Auburn) is tarnished by the fact that the Bayou Bengals gave up 21 points to the Plainsmen, who notched 14 against Tennessee and three against Mississippi State.

Thirteenth-ranked Texas (4-0) suffers from the same problem as Missouri: I’m quite sure the Longhorns are good, but what have they proven with wins by wide margins over Florida Atlantic (1-3), U.T.E.P. (1-3), Rice (3-2), and Arkansas (2-2)? Those meager achievements would have dropped the ‘Horns behind Maryland (4-1) on the strength of the Terrapins’ wins over California (3-1) and Clemson, were it not for the fact that the Terps struggled with Division I-AA Delaware and lost to Middle Tennessee (1-3).

Boise State (3-0) rounds out the top 15 due to the Broncos’ win at Oregon (4-1), which makes B.S.U.’s undefeated record at least somewhat meaningful. After missing out on receiving credit for a quality loss when the failure of a nearly-successful onside kick attempt kept the final margin in the double digits, the Bulldogs plummeted to 16th, as victories over Central Michigan (3-2), South Carolina, and Arizona State (2-2) did little to stop Georgia’s skid.

Dang it.

The Golden Bears edged out the Buckeyes for the No. 17 spot because Cal hasn’t played any Division I-AA teams and the Pac-10 team’s win over Michigan State (4-1) carries more heft than the Big Ten team’s victory over Minnesota (4-1).

The Gators dropped to 19th after losing at home to Mississippi because there was little "there" there to justify keeping them any higher. What about wins over Hawaii (1-3), Miami (2-2), or Tennessee (1-3) is supposed to impress me at this point?

The Ducks might have beaten out the Saurians for the penultimate placement in the top 20---Oregon’s close loss to unbeaten Boise State counts as something of a quality loss, while a road win over Purdue (2-2), even in overtime, probably counts for more than any of Florida’s wins so far---but the squad from the Pacific Northwest was dragged down by low-value wins over Washington (0-4), Utah State (1-3), and Washington State (1-4).

The final fifth of my BlogPoll ballot begins with Texas Tech (4-0), which suffers from a condition common to Big 12 teams at this juncture, only more so. The Red Raiders haven’t played anyone. No, seriously, they haven’t: Texas Tech has taken on two Division I-AA teams and beaten Southern Methodist (1-4), all at home.

When the closest thing you have to a quality win is a road victory over a .500 Nevada squad, you’re this year’s Hawaii.

I feel just as badly as you do about including Connecticut (5-0) at No. 22. Nevertheless, after starting out by beating Division I-AA Hofstra, Temple (in overtime), and Virginia (1-3), the Huskies have notched wins---albeit close ones---over Baylor and Louisville, each of which sits at .500.

Hey, it’s more than the Plainsmen can claim: Auburn (4-1) clung to a spot in the top 25 by virtue of a quality loss to L.S.U., because the Tigers haven’t beaten a team with a winning record and their best victory may have been over Southern Miss (2-2). Close calls against one-win Mississippi State and Tennessee teams have not helped the case for the War Eagle.

Still, there are worse things in the world than not having beaten a team better than Southern Mississippi. For instance, there’s not having beaten a team better than Wyoming (2-3), yet that is the record Brigham Young boasts. The Cougars have gotten to 4-0 on the strength of wins over hapless Washington and nearly as hapless U.C.L.A. (1-3). Even B.Y.U.’s destruction of the Bruins counts for little in light of the overall performance of Rick Neuheisel’s crew.

My final poll position was bestowed upon Oklahoma State (4-0). Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but a Big 12 team has gotten off to a fast start by playing cupcakes. The Cowboys’ best win was over Troy (2-2), but that, and an unblemished ledger, got Mike Gundy’s team into the top 25 ahead of Fresno State (3-1), which has a loss (admittedly, a quality one) and has beaten only a trio of 1-3 teams.

Yell all you like, Mike; you know I’m right.

I watched the Oregon State-Southern California game on Thursday and the Connecticut-Louisville game on Friday. On Saturday, I followed the closing minutes of the Florida-Ole Miss game while riding through campus by listening to score updates on the radio and watching the reactions of tailgaters with satellite dishes. After viewing bits and pieces of various games (mostly the Auburn-Tennessee tilt) at Tent City, I headed into the stadium for the Georgia-Alabama debacle, for which I was present for the entirety of the contest.

As always, the views expressed in the foregoing rankings are mine and mine alone; I deliberately avoid looking at the mainstream polls or any other blogger’s ballot before compiling my own. Because I started from scratch this week, the arrows indicating movement are entirely meaningless, as they represent the differences between two completely divergent approaches to selecting a top 25.

Because this is the first ballot in which I have made a conscientious effort to rely strictly on results on the field, I feel better about this top 25 than I have about any in-season rankings I have yet compiled. Still, imperfections undoubtedly remain, so your constructive criticisms are most welcome in the comments below.

Go ‘Dawgs!

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Questioning UConn? What about Wake Forest?

How is it that Wake can move up 9 after losing to Navy and Wisconsin can move up after giving away the Michigan game?

I don’t think that Ohio State has any business being considered for a resume poll; where is their most impressive win? Minnesota? Perhaps Ohio? OSU just doesn’t carry enough weight to warrant ranking.

I do agree with you on the Penn State, OU, Bama triumvirate. Those three look like the cream of the crop thus far.

by Dougo on Sep 29, 2008 8:07 AM EDT   0 recs

Again, ignore the arrows

They didn’t move up; I started over from scratch using a different method. The arrows are meaningless.

Connecticut’s second-best win was a close home victory over Baylor. Wake Forest’s third-best win was a road victory over Baylor in what was more than a one-score game.

The Huskies’ best win was over Louisville, which, quite frankly, isn’t any good. The Demon Deacons have beaten Ole Miss at home and Florida State on the road. Even with a loss, that trumps triumphs over Hofstra, a bad Temple team, and a bad Virginia team, particularly since three of U.Conn.’s five wins have been nailbiters.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Sep 29, 2008 8:18 AM EDT   0 recs

Seriously...

I don’t know if you were hard on the Dawgs, cause ‘Bama definitely exploited our weakness’ (which may happen again due to our hardest schedule), but I don’t see the reason in keeping USC in the top 10, when they were beat by an unranked, and we were beat by a top ten.

by Newsboys441 on Sep 29, 2008 2:52 PM EDT   0 recs

Too reactionary..

That’s all I have to say.

by Hobnail_Boot on Sep 29, 2008 2:59 PM EDT   0 recs

"Too reactionary"? Yeah, I get that a lot . . .

What, specifically, inspires that reaction response?

That’s not a challenge; I’m genuinely asking.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Sep 29, 2008 7:48 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Ok..

Here are the things that confuse me. Like you, not a challenge, rather a points of curiosity:

-Moving Vanderbilt up 11(!) spots after a bye week. I understand that their schedule got a little bit of a boost via Ole Miss’ win over Florida, but I have a hard time seeing this. Is it simply a function of rewarding the team atop the SEC East?

-Alabama/Georgia – I can understand independently moving Alabama way up or moving Georgia way down, but I have a hard time grasping the two together. Either a) Alabama beat a really good team and should be rewarded for it richly, while slightly punishing Georgia, or b) Georgia was overrated, they take a tumble, and Alabama doesn’t get much rub for beating an undefeated team.

-Maryland/Clemson – ditto
-Virginia Tech/Nebraska – ditto

The other thing you did that completely baffles me is moving Wake Forest up after getting embarrassed at home (down 17-0 at halftime) to a Navy squad whose other 2 victories are against Rutgers and Towson. Yikes.

by Hobnail_Boot on Sep 30, 2008 12:03 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

err..

‘a points’ should read ‘points’, and ‘undefeated’ should read ‘overrated’

by Hobnail_Boot on Sep 30, 2008 12:05 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Just to clarify:

The arrows on this ballot genuinely are meaningless. I scrapped last week’s ballot altogether and used an entirely different ranking system this week, having relied largely on preseason perceptions prior to this point and having gone completely to resume ranking this week. There is no meaningful sense in which teams moved “up” or “down”; this is where I thought they fell when starting from scratch. Next week, the arrows will have some relevance; this week, they don’t.

However, I see your point about downgrading the losing team while boosting the winning team. I have until tomorrow morning to tweak my ballot, so I’ll revisit it tonight and see whether I need to move teams around a bit. I would say, regarding Alabama and Georgia, that a team gets major points for beating stiff competition. Thus, the Crimson Tide, who beat a decent Clemson team and a good Georgia team in games which were neither in Tuscaloosa nor particularly close, leap to the top by virtue of having the best two wins; Georgia, who has beaten South Carolina and Arizona State, has less heft to the resume, and, therefore, had a tougher time absorbing the loss.

Naturally, if the ‘Dawgs go on to beat teams with impressive ledgers (and they certainly will have that opportunity), that will give the Red and Black a substantial boost. Likewise, subsequent wins by Arizona State and South Carolina will improve the quality of those victories, as well. I’ll go back through to make sure I’m not overdoing it in both directions, though. Thanks for the feedback.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Sep 30, 2008 7:08 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Thanks, Todd

I appreciate the vote of confidence. I understand I’ll be speaking with you tonight for a podcast that you will enjoy substantially more than I will.

Newsboys, you make a fair point, but I’m counterbalancing losses with victories. U.S.C.‘s loss was a close game that the Trojans could have won at the end; Georgia’s loss ultimately looked closer than it was over the course of the whole contest. Moreover, the dominating win over Ohio State slowed Southern California’s fall, whereas a close victory over the Gamecocks and a decisive but not dominant win over Arizona State provided less ballast for the ’Dawgs.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Sep 29, 2008 2:59 PM EDT   0 recs

Ummm....

Kyle, in general, I think you’re not giving bad losses nearly enough weight here. How many teams have managed to avoid a loss as damaging as “home vs. Navy”? How many have avoided a loss like “road to Oregon St” or “road to Michigan”? A good number. I’m surpised you’re saying Georgia’s loss to Alabama is in any way equivalent to USC’s to OSU; sure, the former was a lot less competitive than the latter, but the former also came against a consensus top-five team and the latter came to the team that lost to Stanford and got absolutely destroyed by Penn St.

Which is why, more specifically, I don’t see how you can justify Wisconsin where you’ve got them. The Badgers’ victories are home vs. Akron and Marshall and on the road at Fresno. The former two are run-of-the-mill MAC teams (Marshall just got done getting abused by West Virginia in way I-AA Villanova wasn’t) and Fresno’s a house of cards—the Bulldogs struggled with a terrible Rutgers team, lost to Wisky, went into overtime with Toledo, and beat UCLA by 54 fewer points than BYU did and 16 fewer than Arizona did. Then they collapsed at Michigan. This is better than LSU winning at Auburn? Than your Dawgs winning at both Carolina and Arizona St.? I just don’t see it.

by JCCW Jerry on Sep 29, 2008 3:30 PM EDT   0 recs

I'm pretty sure Marshall's not in the M.A.C. anymore . . .

. . . although that probably underscores, rather than undermines, your point.

I have to give the Demon Deacons some credit for beating three B.C.S. conference opponents, particularly since Ole Miss went on to beat Florida and Florida State went on to beat Colorado. The Rebels’ and the Seminoles’ resumes no longer are filled merely with empty calories. That goes a long way toward ameliorating Wake Forest’s narrow loss to Navy.

I see your point about Wisconsin, though. I’ll consider moving them around a bit. Thanks.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Sep 29, 2008 7:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

ack

Naturally, the same day I rail against Ivan Maisel for screwing up conference affiliation, I do the same thing. At least Marshall used to be in the MAC.

I won’t argue that Wake has some solid victories … just a matter of how much you weight the loss.

by JCCW Jerry on Sep 29, 2008 9:42 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, but....

TCU used to be in one of the predecessors of the Big 12. ;)

by PhilipVU94 on Sep 30, 2008 1:31 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Difficult to judge polls this early.

Taken from a long term perspective, I personally believe that either the SEC or Big Twelve is going to end up with a two loss champion.

Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas Tech are going to chew eachother up. Mizz has the lightest schedule in terms of head to head Big 12 matchups, but they still have to contend with the conference championship game.

We are already seeing the SEC cannibalize itself and at most one team will escape with one loss. Scary part is if they lost to wrong team: No conference championship appearance (caution for Alabama and LSU).

For me Penn State really has the best of both worlds. They catch big names Ohio State and Wisconsin in somewhat off years (still difficult but manageable) and have no conference championship to hurdle. And they are good.

http://devinslanding.blogspot.com

by whity11us on Sep 29, 2008 3:50 PM EDT   0 recs

Your arguments make the most sense of any poll voter I've seen

I’m not just saying that because you flatter my team. (I’m tempted to say, “There ain’t no way Vanderbilt is the 11th-best team in the country,” but you make a good case for it.)

I’m saying that because you’re clearly taking an “accomplishment” approach at Week 5, to the exclusion of a “prediction” approach, and you argue very sensibly and dispassionately according to your basic assumptions.

by PhilipVU94 on Sep 30, 2008 1:31 AM EDT   0 recs

Cal 16?

I have to say I’m flattered, but I don’t think we’re the most rock-solid 4-1 team you could find on the board. I’d put Ball State and Northwestern ahead of us and not blink an eye, at least resume-wise.

by BearsNecessity on Sep 30, 2008 3:41 AM EDT   0 recs

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