Who's No. 1?: Initial Thoughts in Saturday's Aftermath
by T Kyle King
on Aug 31, 2008 11:35 PM EDT
in Football
Was it something I said?
In all seriousness, I appreciated Senator Blutarsky’s thoughts on the Georgia Southern game, Nathan’s response to my predominantly positive but unflinching assessment of the contest, and the many measured and thoughtful comments from Cookin’ and Smilin’, Dawgblogit, Mark the Shark, NCT, Richard Pittman, RocketDawg, Romad_20, Cale Self, SG Standard, Shadrach, and Darin Smith. I hope I adequately clarified my position---which, again, I believe was extremely positive overall---in response.
Irrespective of whether I did, though, here is a preliminary draft of my top 18. (Why top 18? Because I had Tennessee ranked 19th in my preseason top 25 and the Volunteers don’t play until tomorrow night.) Here are a few pertinent points to bear in mind when assessing why I did what I did:
- While I have every confidence in my team and its coaches, my rankings (while still mostly prospective at this early stage of the season) are based upon the available evidence, however scant, and, at the highest level, style points count.
- I tried to measure each team’s opening game for what it was worth. For instance, Oklahoma played a much weaker opponent than Missouri did, but the Sooners won by a final margin which was more in line with the expected result than the Tigers did.
- By doing so, am I rewarding teams for running it up on inferior competition? Perhaps, although this will come out in the wash once everyone has played someone. Until all of the teams have played legitimate games, the best we can do is compare apples to apples. A game between Georgia and Georgia Southern is analogous to a game between Ohio State and Youngstown State, so, if the Buckeyes looked better in their outing than the ‘Dawgs did, I have to reward that accordingly.
- Where I was not given any particular reason to move a team, I left that team alone. This, too, will change as more teams face serious competition.
- Not only is there no Atlantic Coast Conference team in my top 18, there will not be an A.C.C. squad in my top 25. This should be self-explanatory, but, for anyone who wonders why I am omitting the A.C.C. entirely, it is because the A.C.C. stinks.
Here, then, is the rough draft of my top 18:
- Southern California
- Ohio State
- Georgia
- Florida
- Oklahoma
- Missouri
- Texas
- Louisiana State
- Penn State
- Auburn
- Oregon
- South Florida
- Wisconsin
- West Virginia
- Arizona State
- Alabama
- California
- Boise State
Obviously, Tennessee could move up or down, depending upon tomorrow night’s result, and I am giving serious thought to moving the Crimson Tide higher and to ranking Utah (which will be in my top 25) above the Broncos.
Those caveats aside, though, how does that look as a preliminary rundown of the top 18 teams in the land after the first Saturday’s college football action?
Go ‘Dawgs!
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Your rankings
I totally agree with your opinion that we didn’t look like the #1 team in the country this week, but really, what’s the difference? If, and this is a big if, we make it through this schedule and win every game by 1 point, we’ll still be the #1 team at the end. We have the toughest schedule in the country and no voter will deny this team a shot at the Nat title game if they make it through it. Even if we have 1 loss and win the SEC we’ll still be there. If we’re up by 30 next week in the 3rd, I hope we pull every 1st stringer, because at this point, injuries are worrying me way more than style points. Go Dawgs and please stay healthy.
by romad_20 on Sep 1, 2008 12:24 AM EDT 0 recs
For me,
It is USC #1, Oklahoma 2,
and then a tie at 3 of : UGA, OSU, UF, AND MISSOU (all have serious injury concerns). If you’re waiting to rank teams, why not wait to rank those 4? Georgia’s very underrated DT tandem is now a solo act. Ellerby can’t be happy about this. Owens was the NG, correct? A quality nose is much more difficult to replace than a quality dt. Within the last 21 days, a very good team lost their best offensive lineman and best defensive lineman. The injury bug blows.
Harvin is more injured than people know.
Wells is OSU’s best player, obviously. I don’t know how far to drop them.
Missou w/o Macklin is an efficient offense, but not an explosive one.
Unique analysis of the 'Noles and the national CFB Landscape at HTTP://www.FSUncensored.blogspot.com
by FSUncensored on Sep 1, 2008 12:57 AM EDT 0 recs
Auburn at 10
I am biased against Auburn, I will admit that up front (although so is Kyle). But I think if you’re going on performance in the first week, Auburn is not a top 10 team. The 34-0 score is deceptive because of 14 defensive and special teams points, and the passing game was whatever word is one level below putrid – maybe atrocious? At the end of the 3rd quarter against Louisiana Monroe – no matter the result against my favorite team last year, a bad team that went 6-6 playing in the Sun Belt last year – AU had 27 yards passing and a long play of 7 – seven – yards.
Their new offense has serious problems. Those problems may work themselves out, but if you’re voting on a right-now basis, they are not top ten. They also unfortunately had at least one season-ending injury Sat night and are missing a number of guys. LSU will expose them toward the end of the game in a few weeks as the healthy depth runs out.
by rtr on Sep 1, 2008 1:17 AM EDT 0 recs
I have been saying for years
That the ACC is the most pathetic BCS conference, by far. Somehow they get so much more love than the Big East (this is the case in hoops too) but the Beast is so much stronger. Also, glad to see you have South Florida higher than WVU. The Mountaineers are ripe for a fall and USF is going to tear up UCF and Kansas these next two weeks.
by Doc's Sports Predictions Guy on Sep 1, 2008 3:31 AM EDT 0 recs
My thoughts
To start, you won’t get any argument from me at the top. I didn’t feel that UGA should have the #1 ranking in the preseason, and both USC and OSU looked more dominant than the Dawgs.
The first team I think warrants major discussion on the list is Missouri. Their pass defense on Saturday looked awful. Even though I was flipping back and forth between their game and Bama/Clemson, I still saw several plays where multiple Illini receivers were running free more than 30 yard downfield. The numbers speak for themselves; Juice Williams was 26/42 for 451 yards. Now, it is quite possible that he made great strides as a passer in the offseason, but a performance like that, especially against a top 10 team is less of a stride and more of a gold medal worthy long jump. Either way, they showed some very concerning traits against a team that lost its best player from a year ago.
So if Mizzou is going to move down, who should jump up? I would say LSU. I feel like many people are sleeping on them. It is easy to look at the players they graduated and overlook them (as much as you can overlook the defending BCS champions, at least). However, they have more than enough resources on defense to overcome their losses. The Tigers’ defensive line, even without Dorsey, is still a terror against the run and the pass. More important to my feeling that they are being overlooked, though, is the quarterback position. Really, all this this offense needs to lead it is a game-manager type quarterback. With the stable of freakishly talented running backs the team has, a moderatly efficient quarterback would suffice. All they need is a player who, while he may not win them any games, won’t lose them any either. Really, the most concerning thing about LSU is not losing Dorsey or Flynn, but rather Bo Pelini. It remains to be seen if the defensive coordinator by committee approach will work.
Now to discuss Auburn. I posted this elsewhere yesterday, so I’ll just copy and paste.
“Auburn is breaking in two new coordinators, one of whom is fundamentally changing the scheme. I know the defense has been able to plug in whoever they want the past several years and still have success, but it gives me pause either way. Offense, though, is more concerning. We know that Auburn can pound the ball. Borges’ offense was effective, if not stunning or unpredictable. However, they are going to something new this season. By its very nature, the growing pains won’t be as severe as say, Michigan, but they should still be there. For a team that plans on throwing the ball more this season, not having an established quarterback and having the two contenders for the job go 13/27 for 85 yards against Louisana-Monroe is not comforting (and yes, I did watch some of it on ESPN 360-not too impressed). Yeah, I know that the run game went for huge numbers, but I doubt they are already willing to abandon the Spread Eagle or whatever cutesy name they have for Franklin’s offense.”
Really, the last point is what it boils down to. Unlike LSU, Auburn’s new offense requires a more than capable quarterback. Neither of the competitors really showed they can fit the bill on Saturday. Much has been made about Franklin’s new pass happy offense. But if it is slow to come on, will he abandon the gameplan that got him hired for a more traditional Auburn offense? There is really no way to know, but based only what I have seen from Tigers, I was not impressed.
On the other end of the spectrum is West Virginia. They too, have altered their offense, and it looked very good. Pat White was more than efficient throwing the ball. It seems like they are smoothly making the transition to a more balanced offensive attack. In the end, they still have White’s legs and Noel Devine to rely on, but the passing game looked much more promising than Auburn’s.
Sorry if I got long winded, but its early and I have nothing to do.
by SG Standard on Sep 1, 2008 10:07 AM EDT 0 recs
Georgia #1
First, let me start by saying how much I enjoy your blog. I live in Pittsburgh and it’s not easy getting solid Georgia Bulldog news on a daily basis here, obviously. I check into your blog every morning when I get to work.
I must say though, I very much disagree with your assessment that the Bulldogs do not deserve the #1 ranking right now. If anything, I walked away from the sports bar on Saturday more optimistic than I was before I got there (this could have something to do with beer, but I digress).
For starters, we finally saw the Matthew Stafford that we’ve been waiting to see for the past two and a half years. Okay, okay he missed an open reciever on the deep ball in the second quarter and he underthrew Massoquoi on the fade pattern which could have resulted in an easy TD. However, he also made some amazing throws. The throw to Green on the first drive was the type of throw I expect to see much more of this year from Stafford.
Next, I believe we now have something that Georgia hasn’t had in, well, forever…A bona fide legit CHANGE THE GAME IN ONE PLAY reciever. AJ Green looks to be a pure man child. I almost fell off my chair when I saw his explosiveness and athleticism on the 40 yard catch on the first drive. Yes, yes it was against sub par defenders. But a true playmaker is kind of like the Supreme Court’s definition of obscenity. “You know it when you see it.” I’m telling you right now, Green may be the biggest playmaking reciever in the SEC right now. I just hope we put the ball in his hands a few more times per game.
Maybe 45-21 doesn’t look all that impressive on paper. But do not despair my friend. It was evident that had Mark Richt wanted to we could have won that game 70-0. That’s not his MO though and that’s part of the reason why Richt is so respected throughout football. Seriously, what’s the point of beating a team by 50 points (unless it’s Auburn or Florida)?
I, for one, truly feel that this is a special team that is completely deserving of the #1 ranking.
On a side note, thank God my dad raised me right and that I’m not a Pitt Panther fan.
GO DAWGS!
by Steelcitydawg on Sep 1, 2008 11:47 AM EDT 0 recs
ACC
Yeah, the ACC sucks but I’d rank Wake Forest in the 15-20 range.
by Hobnail_Boot on Sep 1, 2008 1:36 PM EDT 0 recs
On the strength of beating Baylor?
I mean, Baylor?
Baylor is literally the weakest B.C.S. conference football program outside of Durham, N.C., and, if David Cutcliffe is half the coach I think know he is, even that won’t be true for much longer.
The Stanford team that beat Oregon State would have beaten Baylor worse than Wake Forest did.
The Vanderbilt team that beat Miami (Ohio) would have beaten Baylor worse than Wake Forest did.
At this point, the Cardinal and the Commodores are closer to breaking into my top 25 than the Demon Deacons are.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on
Sep 1, 2008 1:49 PM EDT
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My review of Wake @ Baylor
For reference, since many didn’t watch.
I’ve been pretty vocal about not believing in Wake’s offense. I do think their defense will be pretty good, considering they have a lot of senior starters and some NFL talent (for once).
Last night, however, I was underwhelmed by Wake’s offensive attack. Here are my observations.
1. Skinner is an accurate passer.
2. Baylor seemed very concerned with the deep ball, and skinner picked them apart. He threw 36 times for 220 yards. That is not very impressive. Baylor needed to dare him to beat them deep. It was very evident that he would repeatedly take 5 yard completion after 5 yard completion if they gave it to him, which they did.
3. The margin of victory wasn’t really indicative of Wake’s play, as it was Baylor’s ineptness.
3. Baylor committed 2 turnovers where Wake basically did nothing. First, Alphonso Smith picks off a ball that literally hits off the wideout’s hands (first), and helmet (second), before Smith picked it. Wake didn’t force that turnover. They didn’t bait him into a bad throw or pressure him into a poor pass. The wideout just gave a pathetic effort on a very easy catch. This was in Baylor’s zone, and led to a Wake score.
Second, Baylor’s qb took a snap inside his 15 yard line, rolled left, and DROPPED THE BALL, WITHOUT BEING TOUCHED! Again, the ball rolled to Wake. Please explain me how wake forced that turnover.
5. Wake’s running game really struggled. Adams and Pendergrass (their main running game), had 28 carries for 71 yards. That is bad. Wake’s offensive line really struggled in rub blocking. Baylor’s front 7 is Syracuse bad, and Wake struggled to block them, which is consistent with what we’ve been hearing out of Wake camp.
Their overall running numbers were really inflated because Baylor couldn’t tackle a speedster on a 55 yard run.
6. Wake pass protected pretty well. Baylor has no threats off the edge, but nevertheless, give Wake’s guys credit for keeping Skinner clean.
7. I hate to keep harping on this, but Baylor’s plan was to not get embarassed (didn’t work because of their ridiculous turnovers in their own zone). They let Wake have almost everything short.
8. Wake had ONE passing play of more than 15 yards. Now, as I noted above, Baylor sat back in cover three a lot, but these Wide Receivers are not impressive, even against Baylor.
9. Wake can play some defense. They tackled well for the most part, even though Baylor’s second half QB was very fast.
10. This game is deceiving because it was extremely choppy. Baylor had FIVE turnovers (3 fumbles lost and 2 picks). Wake did force 2 of these, but the other three are stuff that top 50 teams don’t do on a consistent basis.
These play-by-play entries tell a good story:
4th-8, Bay22 14:16 D. Epperson punt to the Baylor 36, no return.
COMMENT: Baylor’s first went 14 yards.
Wake Forest – 11:23
1st-10, Wake38 11:23 J. Adams rushed to the left for 2 yard gain
2nd-8, Wake40 10:53 R. Skinner incomplete pass to the left
3rd-8, Wake40 10:44 R. Skinner passed to M. Williams to the right for 15 yard gain
1st-10, Bay45 10:29 J. Adams rushed up the middle for 2 yard gain
2nd-8, Bay43 9:54 R. Skinner passed to M. Williams to the right for 9 yard gain
1st-10, Bay34 9:41 D. Boldin rushed to the right for 8 yard gain
2nd-2, Bay26 9:14 J. Adams rushed up the middle for 3 yard gain
1st-10, Bay23 8:59 R. Skinner passed to D. Boldin down the middle for 4 yard gain
2nd-6, Bay19 8:33 R. Skinner passed to D. Boldin to the left for 3 yard gain
3rd-3, Bay16 7:55 J. Adams rushed to the right for 3 yard gain
1st-10, Bay13 7:37 J. Adams rushed up the middle for 1 yard gain
2nd-9, Bay12 7:05 R. Skinner passed to C. Brinkman down the middle for 12 yard touchdown. S. Swank made PAT
COMMENT: Wake’s drive starts on Baylor’s 36. Baylor plays soft, and Wake drives for a touchdown with 11 plays, only one of which went 10+ yards. No pressure applied. Soft zone heavy.
3rd-9, Bay41 4:11 A. Smith intercepted K. Freeman for 1 yard
Wake Forest – 4:06
1st-10, Bay48 4:06 B. Pendergrass rushed to the left for 1 yard loss
2nd-11, Bay49 3:35 R. Skinner rushed to the right for 4 yard gain
3rd-7, Bay45 2:52 R. Skinner passed to M. Williams to the right for 7 yard gain
1st-10, Bay38 2:25 R. Skinner rushed up the middle for 7 yard loss. R. Skinner fumbled. B. Pendergrass recovered fumble
2nd-17, Bay45 1:50 R. Skinner rushed to the right for 9 yard gain
3rd-8, Bay36 1:17 R. Skinner passed to B. Wooster to the right for 7 yard gain
4th-1, Bay29 1:10 B. Pendergrass rushed up the middle for 4 yard gain
1st-10, Bay25 0:52 R. Skinner passed to D. Boldin to the left for 5 yard gain
2nd-5, Bay20 0:20 R. Skinner passed to B. Wooster down the middle for 14 yard gain
2nd Quarter
Wake Forest continued
1st-6, Bay6 15:00 B. Pendergrass rushed to the right for 3 yard gain
2nd-3, Bay3 14:27 B. Pendergrass rushed to the left for 3 yard touchdown. S. Swank made PAT
COMMENT: This interception is the one I commented about above. Wake didn’t do shit to get the pick, the wideout literally let it hit him in both hands. Again, wake goes 11 plays, with only one being more than 10 yards. Baylor didn’t even attempt to challenge Wake’s wideouts.
Baylor – 8:50
1st-10, Bay4 8:50 J. Finley rushed up the middle for 7 yard gain
2nd-3, Bay11 8:14 R. Griffin rushed up the middle for no gain. R. Griffin fumbled. H. Haynes recovered fumble
Wake Forest – 8:08
1st-10, Bay11 8:08 B. Pendergrass rushed up the middle for 3 yard gain
2nd-7, Bay8 7:43 R. Skinner passed to C. Brinkman down the middle for 8 yard touchdown. S. Swank made PAT
COMMENT: Griffin was not touched on the fumble. He literally took the snap, took 2 steps left, and dropped the ball. Wake takes over at Baylor’s 11. 14 points off of turnovers they had no hand in forcing. Pure Dominance ;)
Wake Forest – 7:36
Wake kicked off, M. Baker returned kickoff for 9 yards. M. Baker fumbled. J. La Mar recovered fumble
COMMENT: Baylor fumbles the kickoff. They look inept. Wake takes over on Baylor’s 17.
Unique analysis of the 'Noles and the national CFB Landscape at HTTP://www.FSUncensored.blogspot.com
by FSUncensored on
Sep 1, 2008 2:17 PM EDT
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I see your point but...
I think you underestimate that Riley Skinner is a very good QB. His play has only improved over the last two years and if the Wake WR’s improve at all throughout the year, then their O will be much improved. Skinner is mobile, has a good arm, and makes very good decisions on the run.
And even though you trash Wake’s turnovers, they have been top 5 the last two years in turnover margin.
One other thing you don’t mention is they have 10th year player Sam Swank punting and kicking. That guy makes special teams very strong just b/c he has a boot for a leg.
I agree with your other points, but I think that all things considered, this team has a solid core group of players and that they will find ways to compete all year long.
by Zandor435 on
Sep 2, 2008 12:47 PM EDT
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Well
I’d argue that Iowa State is worse than Baylor, but really it’d be like debating over which is the worst Julia Roberts movie.
I’d rank Wake based on the strength of their last 2 seasons, their insanely efficient QB, and a road win over an (admittedly weak) BCS opponent. I subscribe in part to the theory that someone from each of the BCS conferences should be ranked, even if it is only one team.
by Hobnail_Boot on
Sep 1, 2008 2:49 PM EDT
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On the basis of Saturday's play,
I’d say USC 1st and Bama 2nd. Bama looks like a real smash mouth bunch. Speaking of Bama, why do the announcers insist on calling the quarterback “John Parker Wilson.” They don’t say “Matthew Stafford drops back to pass; or Matthew Stafford looked good on that play.” Why not just call him “Wilson” when describing what he is doing or has just done. UT also looks like they have MAJOR quarterbacking problems.
by Jujdog on Sep 2, 2008 11:06 AM EDT 0 recs
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