I’ll follow along, so as not to get ahead of myself.

Big 10

Winner—Ohio State. Far and away the best team in the Big Ten. One thing that is sort of glossed over with the road trip to USC is a pretty tough conference slate. Sure, Minnesota and Northwestern are basic gimmies no matter where they are played. But, at Wisconsin, at Michigan State, at Illinois is a tough road slate, and toss in Penn State and the rivalry game with Michigan at home, and Ohio State could trip up somewhere along the line. I actually like them to upset(?) USC in one of those Game for the Ages types of contests. I don’t think they’ll finish undefeated, however, as they’ll lose at least one conference game.

Disappointment —I think it depends upon your point of view as to what would be a disappointing end to the season. Expectations are pretty high in Happy Valley, so Penn State is the logical choice for a let down. But, really, they were a 9-win team a year ago. With the attrition along the defensive line, and a five game stretch that goes at Purdue, at Wisconsin, Michigan, at Ohio State, at Iowa, expecting improvement over last year’s nine wins is a stretch, mobile quarterback or no.

For my disappointment, I look to Illinois. Last year’s success will not happen again. They open the season against Missouri. They visit Penn State, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and throw in Ohio State and Iowa at home. I see them taking a step back from their 9-3 regular season mark last year to something more along the lines of 7-5.

Surprise—Can a team that is perennially at the top of the league be a surprise? With 17 returning starters, Wisconsin is primed for ten wins and could sneak their way into the Big Ten title with some luck and a few fortuitous bounces.

Big XII

Winner—Oklahoma is the best team in the Big Twelve. I don’t see any hiccups on their schedule. They miss Missouri (not that they were a problem last year), and get Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas Tech at home. A&M is on the road, but they are breaking in Mike Sherman, and Bedlam is on the road (Oklahoma has won five straight with the last loss in Stillwater in 2002).

Disappointment—With apologies to Orson Swindle, Texas Tech. Last year, the Red Raiders lost road games to Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Texas. Consider a home-loss to (6-6) Colorado and the 49 they gave up to Okie State, and I am left wondering why all the hype is centered around Lubbock. Sure, they have 10 starters back on offense, but the problem was on defense last year. They return 8 starters there, but will the added experience provide sufficient improvement from their 30+ ppg in conference play? I don’t really think so. They miss Iowa State this year, and they travel to Kansas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, and Oklahoma. They might finish 9-3, but I’m not seeing a 10-2 or 11-1 finish until I see drastic improvement from the defense.

Surprise—I’m going all topsy-turvy here. Kansas will shock people… not by improving on a 12-1 season, but by not falling to 7-5 or so. They return 9 starters on defense, and their starting quarterback. The team is fantastic at home, where they’ll host Colorado, Texas Tech, and Texas. They have road trips to Missouri, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and USF, but I think they win two of those four. If they mostly hold serve at home, that ends up at 9-3. That’s not world-changing following a 12-1 season, but it’s certainly not the doldrums that most people are expecting.

ACC

Winner—The Prettiest Pig this year is… Florida State? Yes. It’s all about the schedule. With the ACC in utter shambles, Florida State is in the right place at the right time to take advantage. Road games against Miami, NC State, Georgia Tech, and Maryland are all winnable. Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Boston College, and Clemson are at home, where Florida State will win three of those four, including the Bowden Bowl. That puts Clemson behind the proverbial 8-ball of death, which is not proverbial, nor is it actually lethal. Clemson will go 11-1 and not win the ACC, which just makes me giggle. I can’t wait to hear, “they didn’t even win their division” all over again.

Disappointment—If I can’t just say the entire conference, I’ll go with the team that will fare the worst compared to last season: Virginia. From 9-3 (6-2) last season to 7-5 (4-4) or worse… do not at all be surprised when Connecticut beats Virginia.

Surprise—Again, it depends on your point of view. I think Georgia Tech could win as many as seven games this season which I think would shock most people into or out of a coma considering the 8 returning starters (total…4-O, 4-D) and the complete overhaul of the offensive scheme. I’m not going on the record with that, though. Instead, I’ll drop another bomb. I think North Carolina could go unbeaten this season. With 17 starters returning (9-O, 8-D), six losses (four on the road) last year by a combined 24 points, including at Virginia Tech (17-10), and Butch Davis entering his 2nd year at the helm (remember the 2nd year theorem, where teams have huge gains in year 2 of a coach’s regime: Georgia in 2002, Oklahoma in 2000, etc.) North Carolina is primed for a huge rebound. They open the real portion of their schedule at Rutgers (who I peg to take a step back this season) and at home against Virginia Tech, who is replacing over half of their starters from last season. Interesting non-conference games against Connecticut and Notre Dame at home appear winnable, and the conference road games are at toothless Miami, at rebuilding Virginia, at enigmatic Maryland, and at hapless Duke. NC State, Georgia Tech, and Boston College round out the conference slate at home, which are all winnable. Basically, the at Rutgers-vs. Virginia Tech stretch will determine the Tar Heels’ season. If they win those games, it is certainly not inconceivable that they finish the regular season undefeated or with just one loss. They are still a bit of a paper tiger, I’m afraid, but they could play the part of Kansas this year since I hear they’ll be busy.