A Preliminary Public Draft of My 2008 Preseason BlogPoll Ballot
by T Kyle King
on Jul 28, 2008 10:30 AM EDT
in Football
After offering some preliminary notes on my preseason BlogPoll ballot, I drew up and circulated privately an initial draft of my top 25, with respect to which I solicited and received feedback from friends and family members.
Ere I submit for your review a revised (yet still far from final) version of my preseason rankings, I feel compelled to include a handful of caveats:
- This top 25 is intended to have what it almost certainly will lack; namely, predictive value. If I am successful in my objective, my final BlogPoll ballot and my original BlogPoll ballot will be identical. My goal is to produce an accurate listing of where the teams will deserve to be ranked on January 9, 2009.
- I have an S.E.C. team ranked No. 1. I also have two S.E.C. teams ranked in the top five, three ranked in the top seven, four ranked in the top nine, and five ranked in the top 20. As someone who has been falsely accused of shameless conference homerism in his rankings, I confess that this is shameless conference homerism of a sort, which is to say: I am sure some teams in other leagues will turn out to be better than I expect, but I have no idea which ones. That being the case, I went with what I knew. As the season progresses and new information becomes available, I will adjust my ballot accordingly, in full compliance with Rece Davis’s dictum that early poll voting should be "a fluid situation."
- My list of teams "also receiving consideration" essentially consists of teams I had ranked in my initial top 25 draft or teams I was advised to consider. There were other teams to which I gave thought in compiling my original draft which do not figure here, but this does not mean they were ignored. I mulled over whether to include, e.g., South Carolina, Utah, and Virginia Tech earlier, but, having decided not to rank them, I was given no feedback which moved me to rethink that decision. Generally, I was more willing to remove or promote a team I had included already than to add a team someone advised me to consider.
- One of my brothers-in-law emboldened me to pick Auburn (which is installing a new offense and, based upon the evidence of the Chick-fil-A Bowl, has the quarterback to run it) to beat out L.S.U. (which has an unsettled quarterback situation) in the S.E.C. West. When coupled with my undeviating belief that the Plainsmen invariably pose the toughest challenge on the Bulldogs’ schedule, this conclusion led me to rank the War Eagle more highly than I’d have liked. I hate Auburn.
- I included Kansas and Texas Tech at the tail end of my top 25 as a compromise to balance out my complete disbelief in the Jayhawks and the Red Raiders with my desire to avoid the ire I know I would have drawn by omitting them entirely. Fortunately, both Kansas and Texas Tech face strong slates this season, so both teams’ worthiness, vel non, will be demonstrated on the field, at which point I will rank them, vel non, accordingly.
That having been said, here is my revised (though, to reiterate, not my final) preseason BlogPoll ballot draft, submitted for your review and comment:
- Georgia
- Southern California
- Ohio State
- Missouri
- Florida
- Oklahoma
- Auburn
- Arizona State
- Louisiana State
- Penn State
- Texas
- Oregon
- Florida State
- West Virginia
- Wisconsin
- Clemson
- California
- South Florida
- Boise State
- Tennessee
- Nebraska
- North Carolina
- Texas Tech
- Fresno State
- Kansas
Others Receiving Consideration:
Alabama, Brigham Young, Illinois, Michigan, and Pittsburgh
I welcome your comments and constructive criticisms, which will be taken into account, especially in light of my view (particularly now that Paul Westerdawg has elected not to continue participating as a BlogPoll voter) that I am, in many respects, your BlogPoll voter.
I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t considering voting Southern Miss No. 25 on my preseason ballot as a farewell nod to Sunday Morning Quarterback.
Go ‘Dawgs!
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So...
We only have 3 blogpoll rep’s now? Georgia blogs, represent!
by blackertai on Jul 28, 2008 11:04 AM EDT 0 recs
FSU
You can take this or leave this coming from a Gator fan, but you have Florida State too high.
All of the suspensions from the academic scandal will still be in effect for the Wake Forest game, meaning that will probably be a loss.
The quarterback position is still a mess – Weatherford isn’t that good, Ponder hasn’t played much, and both will be looking over their shoulders at incoming freshman E.J. Manuel. As we all know, if you have three quarterbacks, you have no quarterbacks.
The offensive line will likely be all freshman and sophomores thanks to losing junior T Daron Rose (academically ineligible), and they lost redshirt sophomore starter LG Evan Bellamy to a blood clot. Not good news for a team with no quarterback and that hasn’t had a 1,000 yard rusher since Warrick Dunn in 1996.
The defense will probably still be pretty good, but it took a step back last year. Having Patrick Robinson, Dekoda Watson, and Budd Thacker out the first three games probably won’t help build the cohesiveness that’s necessary to have a top flight D again.
On special teams, they replace the reliable K Gary Cismesia with P Graham Gano, and you never really know what will happen when one guy shares both duties. It’s a bigger deal now more than ever when you look at the difference between Jeff Bowden’s last offense and Jimbo Fisher’s first. In 2006, FSU scored 42 TDs and made 14 FGs, but in 2007 it scored 32 TDs and 27 FGs. That’s pretty remarkable, especially when you look at that drop of 10 in TDs and remember the clock rules in 2006 that robbed plays from everyone. Uncertainty at kicker is bad news in Tallahassee.
All of that doesn’t even address the fact that the head coach is asleep at the wheel and the offensive coordinator is being pulled away from coordinating the offense to be paraded around as the pretend presumptive head coach.
Yeah, #13 is a little too high.
by Year2 on Jul 28, 2008 12:47 PM EDT 0 recs
That's fair, but...
Who else do you have in the ACC? I mean, really. Wake Forest, maybe, Clemson I’ll believe when I see it. Va. Tech? Underclassmen heavy. FSU has a senior QB, good wide-outs (not great), and a great O-Line coach. Let’s not sell that short. You only have to be barely competent to be successful in the current ACC on offense. We’re not going to pretend FSU can compete with UF this season, that’s for sure, but I wouldn’t doubt that they’re runners up in their division either. I mean, seriously. Who else will reach up and take it?
by blackertai on
Jul 28, 2008 1:17 PM EDT
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Relative strength
Just because a team is among the best in a bad conference, it doesn’t mean they’re #13 in the country. Kyle said this is a ranking of quality (“where the teams will deserve to be ranked on January 9, 2009”), so that has to figure in to it. He objected last year to Kansas being highly ranked while not facing tough competition (#12 in his final ballot despite the 12-1 record), so why does FSU get to be #13?
The Semis will almost certainly lose to Wake (see above), Florida, and probably Clemson (who’s won 4 of 5 in the series and has a lot more talent). At least three losses from a bad conference doesn’t add up to #13 overall. Most, if not all, of the teams he has between 14 and 20 would beat FSU by multiple scores. That has to count for something, right?
As for the ACC, I think Clemson will win the Atlantic Division. I picked BC to win its division last season based solely on having the best QB in the conference, and now Clemson has it. When there’s as much mediocrity as there is in this conference, having the best guy behind center matters a lot. Add on the best running back tandem and a good defense and you probably have the champion.
Wake should be better than FSU as well. It has a junior in his third season starting at QB, they won nine games last season (so they’re starting off better than seven-win FSU), and Jim Grobe outclasses anyone on Florida State’s coaching staff at this point.
Figuring the three losses I mentioned above, FSU is down to seven wins against I-A competition (thanks to two I-AA games to begin the season). There will be at least one more loss when they get a game where no one riding the garnet and gold quarterback carousel can get anything going. Now you’re down to no more than six wins over I-A teams, and that can’t possibly put FSU at #13.
by Year2 on
Jul 28, 2008 3:13 PM EDT
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Have you gone Quackers?
What is your reasoning for ranking Oregon so doggone high? With only five starters returning, their offense will be a shell of its former self with the dual-departure of Jonathan Stewart and Dennis Dixon. The O-Line looks alright with Max Unger and Fenuki Tupou leading the charge. The defense is better, with 7 returning starters. But that’s a defense that allowed almost 24 points per game last season, and did allow 30+ points in five games. The secondary is pretty intense with Jairus Byrd, Patrick Chung, and Walter Thurmond all returning (that trio combined for 285 tackles and 14 interceptions). Is the secondary enough to carry them up to twelfth in your poll?
by Tiller on Jul 28, 2008 1:55 PM EDT 0 recs
I think Oregon may be a bit high...
They have a few key question marks,
The won’t be dropping off that much at RB. It hurts to lose Stewart, but all Duck fans are very happy about Jeremiah Johnson and new JC RB LaGarrette Blount. WR could be a bit thin, but it has potential, and we have a ridiculous amount of talent at QB, it’s just untested. The O-line has expereince at key positions, as well as depth and talent. They have one of the top two offensive lines in the Pac-10 (others is Cal, and both are extremely good). I expect the rushing dominance to continue against most teams. As a Duck fan, I have a lot of faith in OC Chip Kelly.
On defense, the D does give up yards, and at times, points, but they make plays as well. Oregon defenses have been very strong when they’ve had good secondaries, due to the style coached by the DC Nick Aliotti. Also, despite the points given up, they made the plays necessary to win ballgames last year. In the big games (USC and ASU), huge stops were made. And in many cases, points were poured on late.
Another note, any Mike Bellotti team that has allowed less than 25 ppg has had at least 9 wins. Any team giving up more than that has not reached 9 wins. The offense will score at least in the mid 20s in my opinion, and if they get decent play.
I have Oregon 2nd in the Pac-10. If they get solid play from the young QBs, with few mistakes, they will probably be a 10-2 team.
Does this mean that they will? Nope, they have 5 Pac-10 road games (@USC, @Cal, @ASU, @OSU, @WSU), which will be very tough. But they should be a very solid team, and possibly a great team, possibly a poor team.
--www.AddictedToQuack.com
by jtlight on
Jul 29, 2008 11:48 AM EDT
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ASU is overrated on this ballot
and I’m a sundevil—-I don’t see them as a top 10 team or even a top 15 team. Somewheres between 16-25 but realize we are working with small differentials.
I would take 9-3 right now, and think 10-2 is way under the tails in the normal distribution—9-3 would probably have the devils ranked about 18 or so.
by baal on Jul 28, 2008 4:01 PM EDT 0 recs
Cataula it's not my ballot . . .
But I’d guess the argument breaks down along the lines of:
a) The Tarheels finished 35th in the nation in total defense last year and return 12 significant contributors off that unit. This includes defensive tackle Marvin Austin, who is the greatest defensive player of our era, at least until Tim Tebow switches to the linebacker position that Urban Meyer told Jevan Snead that Tebow was being recruited for.
b) Their schedule is marshmallowy delicious. They don’t have to play Clemson or Wake Forest and get Va Tech and Boston College at home. Not that Chapel Hill is the greatest homefield advantage in the world, but in mid-October it is in my top 10 of most beautiful places on the face of the Earth. It’s distracting if nothing else.
c) QB T.J. Yates is returning to start as a sophomore and Greg Little is an emerging threat in the backfield, a 6’3, 215 pound tailback who can move the chains on 3rd and 4 or less. UNC converted 29% of third downs last year, by the way. Even bad offensive teams think that’s really bad. Chan Gailey would admit that’s bad. Offense was this team’s achilles heel last season, but it improved with young players as the year progressed.
d) And Hakeem Nicks may be one of the 2-3 best wide receivers in the ACC. He’ll give Yates a good dependable target when Little is being keyed on and the run game stymies (as it assuredly will).
e) Finally, it is the ACC. Somebody has to finish 8-4. Might as well be the Heels. That said, I’m picking them 6-6 and out of the top 25. Significant improvement over last year’s 4-8 campaign, but still a year or two away.
by MaconDawg on
Jul 29, 2008 1:07 PM EDT
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LSU/AU debate
I think it is tough to rate these two teams on a preseason ballot that is supposed to reflect their final outcome in the polls.
Example: LSU and AU finish with identical 10-2 regular season records, however Auburn is one of LSU’s losses and therefore would represent the West in the SECCG. Auburn then loses to UGA in the SECCG, and plays in the peach or cotton bowl. At that point Auburn has beaten LSU in the regular season (thereby meaning AU is a superior team) but will have one more loss than LSU, and LSU will be playing in a better bowl game (probably the sugar bowl if UGA is playing in the NC game). If both teams would win their bowls I think LSU would have the higher finish in the polls on Jan 9th 2009.
So if you think that…
1) AU is slightly better than LSU, meaning very similar records but AU beats LSU
2) AU will lose the SECCG to UGA (and I”m sure you think that!)
3) The SEC is the best conference and therefore LSU and AU will both win their bowl games
Then you have to rank LSU AHEAD of AU in your poll if you are trying to predict final standings.
Makes perfect sense right?
by LSU Jonno on Jul 29, 2008 3:57 PM EDT 0 recs
Sorry Jonno
Neither LSU nor Auburn have a chance of winning the west this year. Don’t you know that CNS has the Tide positioned to take the west by storm. Bama beats Awbarn and LSWhO this year to take the west.
by Zandor435 on
Jul 30, 2008 12:26 PM EDT
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oh yeah...
totally agree. Bama’s back baby!!!!!!!!!!!!
RBR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by LSU Jonno on Jul 30, 2008 10:04 PM EDT 0 recs
ASU is waaay too high. Cal, ASU, and UO should be 18-19-20 until they prove otherwise, and since Cal has the easier schedule, I’m inclined to go with them. So is Phil Steele.
by Spazzy Mcgee on Jul 31, 2008 1:47 PM EDT 0 recs
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