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Which Four College Football Teams Are the Most Overrated in 2008?

As focused as I am on baseball at the moment, there is no getting around the fact that June is the month before the month before the month at the end of which football season starts. The season preview magazines are hitting the newsstands and all of our summertime minds are turning more and more towards the arrival of autumn and, with it, the return to the gridiron of our favorite teams.

Despite our best guesses, we cannot know for certain which squads will meet expectations, which will exceed them, and which will dash their fans’ hopes. Here, however, are a few teams that are starting to get some preseason love which are, in my humble opinion, overrated. In no particular order, these are . . .

The Four Teams I Ain’t Buying for 2008

Kansas: The Jayhawks are coming off of their best season ever, a 12-1 campaign capped off by an Orange Bowl victory, and they return nine defensive starters along with quarterback Todd Reesing. Many experts are high on Kansas again this season, but I’m not. The Jayhawks, like their head coach, got fat off of cupcakes, without so much as a single regular-season win against a legitimate quality opponent in 2007. This year, K.U. travels to South Florida for an early-season Friday night tilt and the ‘Hawks are apt to discover that the Sunshine State is a mite more hot and humid in Tampa in September than it is in Miami in January.

Although a 6-0 start is possible (however unlikely), this year’s slate actually has some meat to it down the stretch, as Kansas plays at Oklahoma on October 18, against Texas Tech on October 25, at Nebraska on November 8, and against Texas on November 15 before closing with Missouri in Kansas City on November 29. Facing a substantially weaker schedule last season, the Jayhawks still struggled in road wins over Colorado, Kansas State, and Texas A&M. This program hasn’t been to a bowl game in an even-numbered year since 1992, hasn’t posted back-to-back seasons above .500 since 1995, and is as unlikely to replicate either last year’s outlying turnover margin (+21) or its fortuitous avoidance of injuries as it is to succeed in tackling a tougher slate under the guiding hand of a head coach who is 8-21 on opponents’ home fields.

The Jayhawks may be looking at a bowl game named for a manufactured good, but they won’t be bound for a postseason destination named for anything found growing in nature this year.

Texas Tech: I hate to make it look like I’m picking on the Big 12, which appears to be a much-improved league in 2008, but the Red Raiders have borrowed the Sunflower State philosophy of creating overinflated records with as many weak sisters as they can find. The Red Raiders’ first four games include outings against Eastern Washington and Massachusetts, both of which hail from the Division I-AA ranks. What, were the Deaf & Dumb and the Houston Y.M.C.A. unavailable? (Longtime Texas Tech rival Texas A&M actually opened the 1904 and 1905 seasons, respectively, against those two opponents. Look it up if you don’t believe me.)

Yes, with Mike Leach at the helm and 10 returning starters on that side of the ball, the Raiders will be great on offense again in 2008. What about the defense? Sure, it’s supposed to be the best Texas Tech D of the Mike Leach era, but how bad would the Red Raiders have to be defensively not to be? Last year’s Texas Tech defense surrendered 24 points to Rice, 27 points to Oklahoma, 28 points to Virginia in the Gator Bowl, 31 points apiece to Colorado and to U.T.E.P., 41 points to Missouri, 49 points to Oklahoma State, and 59 points to Texas. The Raiders could improve upon that by leaps and bounds yet still stink badly enough to lose four or five games.

Offense sells preseason magazines; defense holds the Cowboys to 14.

Pittsburgh: No less respected an expert than Sunday Morning Quarterback gives the Panthers a fair amount of credit and, while that could just be because Dave Wannstedt haunts SMQ’s dreams, he is not alone: Phil Steele has Pitt as his No. 4 Most Improved Team and his No. 11 Surprise Team. Why all the love for the squad that bumped off the Mountaineers last year? Two reasons: 15 returning starters and a series of quality recruiting classes that give the Panthers top-tier talent among Big East teams.

You know what, though? Ray Goff recruited like gangbusters, too. I used to say that the way to win a national championship was to hire Bill Curry, fire Bill Curry, and wait three years. It worked for Georgia Tech and it worked for Alabama, after all. My point was that the ability to recruit talent and the ability to coach talent are two different things. Many coaches have both abilities (e.g., Mack Brown, Urban Meyer, Mark Richt, Nick Saban, et al.), but possessing one does not presuppose having a handle on the other. Wanny may be able to get ‘em to Pitt, but there is absolutely no evidence that he knows what to do with ‘em when he gets ‘em there. Somebody is going to win with Dave Wannstedt’s recruits; I just don’t think that somebody is going to be Dave Wannstedt.

Don’t look at me like that, Dave; I’m not the one who lost to Ohio (Ohio).

Clemson: Cullen Harper, James Davis, and C.J. Spiller are among the eight returning starters from an offensive unit that riddled scoreboards to the tune of 38, 42, 44, 47, 49, and 70 points last year. Of course, those impressive numbers were put up against Furman, N.C. State, Wake Forest, Duke, Louisiana-Monroe, and Central Michigan, respectively; against the likes of Georgia Tech, Boston College, Auburn, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Florida State, the Tigers managed only 3, 17, 20, 23, 23, and 24, in that order.

It’s not hard to see why hopes are high for the Fort Hill Felines this year, as Clemson opens in Atlanta against an Alabama squad that will not yet have had time to gel, follows that up with four straight home games against two Division I-AA opponents and two conference foes who lost seven games apiece in 2007, and enjoys open dates before each of the Tigers’ first two true road games.

Is there anyone who doesn’t think this team will fade down the stretch, though? Bear in mind that Clemson closes with five straight games, including Boston College in Chestnut Hill, Florida State in Tallahassee, Virginia in Charlottesville, and South Carolina by the shores of Lake Hartwell. Bear in mind, as well, that, when Tommy Bowden-coached teams get off to fast starts, they falter down the stretch, as evidenced by the Tigers’ fading fortunes in 2000 (8-0 start, 1-3 finish), 2001 (5-2 start, 2-3 finish), and 2006 (7-1 start, 1-4 finish). Clemson will start strong, but this season will not end well.

When you start a new job as a brunette and go grey in a great big hurry, that’s a pretty good indication of poor performance in the position. You know, like Jimmy Carter during the White House years.

Those are the teams I see as receiving undeserved preseason attention in 2008. Let me know whether you agree, disagree, or have some suggestions of your own in the comments below or, better yet, in the FanPosts to the right.

Go ‘Dawgs!

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One of these four is not like the others?

Good stuff. However, I will add some points that I thought I would never write. First, I have been on the Bowden is an underachiever bandwagon for a while. Is there another coach that has make a career off of 8 win seasons with 1 job-saving-victory each year? And as Kyle noted, Bowden’s Tigers are quite the Jekyl & Hyde prototypes- start hot and fade or dig themselves into a hole, only to have a win against Daddy and/or Lispin’ Lou to bail him out. For a team that opened many a season with “this is a squad that could win it all” promise, especially during dark years for FSU and Miami, they never have won a ACC title.
BUT they do have talent there, as Kyle noted and the schedule is favorable. The 4 big challenges even line up for Clempson. Bama early. BC lost Ryan. FSU still hasn’t shown it has turned the corner and the Chickens at home.
I don’t think the Purple Pussycats are as good as the Dogs, but I think their schedule should be more win-friendly that ours. So I think this could be the year that Bowden finds his way into a BCS game, only to get whipped by a quality opponent in the post season.

by fotodog on Jun 9, 2008 11:44 PM EDT   0 recs

you

sure you’re not all cranky after that SEC bias thing in baseball???? :)

I’ll give you Kansas, but I’m not so sure about Tech. Their biggest problem is that they’re not Texas nor Oklahoma, and Oklahoma returns a lot this coming season. Still Tech has had the Sooners’ number the past few seasons.

Go Big Red Nebraska!
Our Cobs Are Bigger Than Yours!
Corn Nation!

by corn blight on Jun 10, 2008 12:22 AM EDT   0 recs

Me? Cranky? O.K., I'll give you that one . . .

As for the Red Referees Raiders having the Sooners’ number, one of those wins required a clearly erroneous officiating call, although that fact often is overlooked, in light of the even more egregious mistake in the Oklahoma-Oregon game.

As Phil Steele points out, though, even with Texas Tech’s recent success against O.U., the home team is 8-2 in the last ten series meetings and the Raiders have not won in Norman since 1996. If the game were in Lubbock, maybe . . . but in Norman? No way.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jun 10, 2008 8:27 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

How long had it been before 2006 that Vandy won in Athens? And how was it that Spurrier never won in Tallahassee but a fired Ron Zook could?

This decade we’ve seen Phil Mickelson win majors, both the Red Sox and White Sox win the World Series, the Tampa Bay Bucs win the Super Bowl, Navy beat Notre Dame, a sophomore win the Heisman, and Vanderbilt win in both Athens and Knoxville (and it really should have won in Gainesville in 2005). Streak breaking is in the air.

As to the other comments about Texas Tech: yeah being in the Big 12 South is tough, Doug, but Texas Tech has a better team than Texas does this year. Oklahoma will be great, but Texas will merely be good.

The stat about Texas Tech’s defense I believe refers to total defense. They finished with the 12th-ranked pass defense in the country, though that may have something to do with also having the 82nd-ranked rush defense. Call it “South Carolina Syndrome.” (Gamecocks in 2007: 4th-ranked pass defense, 110th-ranked rush defense. Why pass when you can run all day?)

After McNeil’s promotion only Texas scored more than 4 points above its season average against Tech. The building blocks are there for a good defense, but we’ll see if an full offseason under McNeil will make it any more than decent.

by Year2 on Jun 10, 2008 3:56 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Just registering...

my disagreement with the “clearly erroneous” statement.

Go register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Jun 10, 2008 9:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think TTU could actually be pretty good

. . . but still not good enough to win the Big XII South, not with Oklahoma and Texas in the same division.

I think you’re pretty on-point with the other three, though, particularly Clemson and Pitt. Haven’t the nation’s pollsters been burned enough times by Clemson already? I can see Clemson winning the ACC Atlantic division simply by process of elimination - though Wake Forest may have something to say about that - but it takes some heavy-duty psychedelics to picture Tommy Bowden coaching in a BCS game.

by Doug G. on Jun 10, 2008 8:16 AM EDT   0 recs

Since Ruffin McNeil

took over the Texas Tech defense, they ranked 1st in the Big 12. Something to consider…

Go register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Jun 10, 2008 8:25 AM EDT   0 recs

Is that total defense or scoring defense?

I’m not challenging you upon that point, I’m legitimately asking.

There was a boatload of scoring in the Big 12 last year, partly because there were some outstanding offenses (like Missouri’s and Texas Tech’s) and partly because there were some atrocious defenses (like Nebraska’s and Texas’s). Sometimes No. 1 means “best” and sometimes it just means “least bad”; I’m wondering whether that was the case with the Red Raider D last year.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jun 10, 2008 8:31 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Was yards

over the last 8 games of the season, per Scout:

Following a disappointing 49-45 loss in the fourth game of the season at Oklahoma State, which rolled up over 600 yards of total offense, Leach appointed McNeill interim defensive coordinator for the remainder of the season. The improvements began to show immediately.

Over the course of the final eight games of the regular season, Texas Tech’s defense ranked first in the Big 12 Conference in total defense and improved in every defensive category. Additionally, the Red Raider pass defense led the conference and was among the top units in the country. The defense was instrumental in Texas Tech advancing to its second New Year’s Day bowl game since the 2005 season.

I don’t know if Tech is a pretender or a contender, but their defense was respectable relative to their conference opponents last year. Whether this makes them a good defense or merely the “least bad,” given that they remain in the same conference this season I think there’s at least some reason to think they will remain the or one of the least bad in the conference. If that’s the case, and the offense hums along as per usual (obviously I think it will, but I’m a partisan), then the team could be set for one of its best season in a while.

Then again, Tech will probably blow some easy game to the likes of Nevada and prove you right, so… That’s what we do. I hope it is different this year.

Go register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Jun 10, 2008 9:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Could be

I freely admit that I’m wrong about this sort of thing as often as I am right, so this could be the Red Raiders’ year.

For me, though, the fact that they remain in the same conference is why I question Texas Tech’s durability, because I think the Big 12 is on the upswing. Oklahoma will be very good and they get the Raiders at home. Bo Pelini will improve Nebraska, Will Muschamp will improve Texas, and Mike Sherman may even improve Texas A&M (although that last point is debatable).

It may well be true that Texas Tech will be better, but so will many of the teams they play. That’s why I doubt that the Red Raiders will do as well as some experts expect.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jun 10, 2008 9:59 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Pitt is not even in the discussion

if they do not knock off WVU in what was a bigger upset than Appalachian State at Michigan. College football history is littered with teams that, based on one big game during an otherwise bad year, are propped up just to fail again.

And I’m not buying Florida until their secondary proves they can consistently stop the pass. This is not my Dawgly bias speaking, either. Florida is going to win some blow-outs. They always do. But inevitably there are going to be contests that test the mettle of the defense when the offense isn’t lighting it up. Their secondary is still young and lacks depth. At last check, Michgian was torching ‘em. And we all know that, ultimately, defense wins championships.

by DavetheDawg on Jun 10, 2008 8:42 AM EDT   0 recs

Just wondering...

How many games do you see the Jayhawks winning in 2008? Because, depending on the answer and what you would consider ‘overrated’, I just might agree with you. In plenty of polls we are ranked in the Top 15. I think that is fair considering what we did last season, but even most Kansas fans will acknowledge that we probably aren’t one of the 15 best teams in the country and most likely, barring a surprise almost as great as last season, won’t finish in the Top 15 either. So, if you are using our quite-high preseason ranking as an indicator, I would agree with you.

If you are, on the other hand, saying that Jayhawks fans are overrating the team, I think you are clearly wrong. Most Jayhawk fans are expecting an 8-4 season, with 7-5 and 9-3 also being intricately possible and slight chances at 10-2, etc. Which, frankly, in the barren wasteland of KU football history, would be a tremendous success. I think we will be a better team, talent-wise and such, this season than we were last season, but because of the tremendously more difficult schedule, we will lose a couple of games.

So, like I said earlier, it all depends on what you are considering ‘overrated’. And I am just looking for some discussion, this isn’t meant as an attack in any way.

by rockchalk on Jun 10, 2008 11:54 AM EDT   0 recs

Fair enough

I’m referring to the evaluations in the national preview magazines and the rankings in the preseason polls.

I can’t claim to have enough familiarity with the consensus forming inside a particular fan base to assess whether this or that group has overly lofty expectations, and, given my lofty expectations for my own team this year, I wouldn’t presume to criticize any other fan base on that front, anyway.

So, yeah, when I say “overrated,” I mean by the polls and the previewers, not by the fans. In terms of wins and losses, I’d be surprised to see Kansas win as many as nine games, given the upgrades on the Jayhawks’ conference and non-conference slates. I think K.U. is looking at 7-5 or 8-4.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jun 10, 2008 1:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You might be right on Clemson...

But as long as they win 6 and beat South Carolina, Baby Bowden will keep his job. For a team whose fans tout A MASSIVELY IMPORTANT TRADITION, beating South Carolina has bizarrely become their equivalent of a national championship.

(Hoping they don’t beat us, of course, but history has not been kind in that regard.)

by cocknfire on Jun 10, 2008 12:00 PM EDT   0 recs

As fotodog noted . . .

. . . Clemson has fallen into familiar patterns under Tommy Bowden.

Either the team starts out strong and fades down the stretch, or the team stumbles out of the gate and pulls one or two out late. Certainly in the case of the latter, and sometimes in the case of the former, the wolf is kept from the door by a key win over Florida State or South Carolina.

If I were a Clemson fan, I’d find the pattern maddening. In the 1990s, it became clear that Tommy West was Clemson’s Ray Goff, a beloved alumnus who was promoted beyond his ability level. In the 2000s, it is beginning to become clear that Tommy Bowden is Clemson’s Jim Donnan.

Perhaps it’s time for Clemson to figure out that hiring guys named “Tommy” just isn’t a formula that works for them . . . sort of like Alabama hiring guys named “Mike.”

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jun 10, 2008 1:12 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Texas Tech

I think that Texas Tech has more talent this year than any other team under Leach’s tenure. With that said, I think aspirations of a national championship might be jumping the gun, but their chances of finishing 11-1 or 10-2 are not that far fetched. Number 2 in the Big 12 with a 10 win season would give them a legitimate shot at an at-large bid to a BCS bowl.

Being a Tech fan, I know that they have been inconsistent in the past. Losing to a team off of the radar one week and then beating a ranked opponent the next. Well except for one consistency, beating A&M 10 out of the last 13 meetings and the fact that Tech is the only team in the Big 12 that has been bowl eligible every year since its inception. Still we do need to beat Texas or OU more often in order to get real respect.

I will be happy with a 10 win season; at least that’s a step in the right direction.

by Texas Techsan on Jun 11, 2008 10:18 PM EDT   0 recs

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