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Have Team, Will Travel: Why S.E.C. Critics Need Some New Lines

Was it something I said?

No, I don’t mean my call to tonight’s Father’s Day edition of EDSBS Live. (In case you missed it, you can download tonight’s show here. Also, while I’m not sure whether they’ve ironed out the technical problems with it, my April 8 appearance can be downloaded here.)

This has been a public service announcement.

Last night, I identified the four teams I ain’t buying for 2008. This generated some discussion, both here and on the message boards. Such SB Nation colleagues as Rock Chalk Talk’s eponymous proprietor and Double-T Nation’s Seth C offered reasonable responses, with the latter having this to allow:

I do believe the preseason hype is warranted, and I'm trying to be as objective as possible. I don't think there's any shame is giving up 27 points to Oklahoma, especially when they averaged 42.29 there were games where the defense did play well (Iowa State to 17, Baylor to 7 and the TAMU to 7), but the key is that those were all home games. I think this is where experience plays a big part of the success of a team and with the number of returning starters and the talent that most followers of the program know that's there, I think there's a pretty good chance that Texas Tech lives up to those expectations. Besides that I just don't see 5 losses on the schedule this year, which means Texas Tech would have to lose 5 of the 8 conference games for Kyle's assertion to be true. I just don't see it.

Seth’s points are perfectly valid and well stated. (In my defense, I would note only that I indicated that even an improved Red Raider defense could "still stink badly enough to lose four or five games"; I didn’t specifically predict a five-loss season, although one would not surprise me.) However, I must take issue with the views expressed by one of Seth’s commenters. Wrote TB:

Kyle is just flat-out wrong on a couple points. First, if he’s going to bash the schedules of teams from other conferences, he may want to take a look at his own house first. The Wiz did a breakdown of conferences that traveled the least for non-conference games, and the SEC was easily dead last. I think it’s a travesty that SEC teams get away with playing schedules that are just as worthless as everyone else’s, but it’s forgiven because of their "tough league slate." Maybe it was Bill Snyder who started the trend, but he’s damn sure got a lot of acolytes now.

Let me begin by apologizing to Seth for going after a point made by a commenter at his site, which ordinarily isn’t something I would do. Unfortunately, the logical fallacies of TB’s argument are widespread, which is why I feel the need to rebut them.

TB has failed to draw a critical distinction. When telling me that I needed "to take a look at [my] own house" before "bash[ing] the schedules of teams from other conferences," he leveled the criticism that "the SEC was easily dead last" among "conferences that traveled the least for non-conference games." (I think he meant that the S.E.C. was first among conferences that traveled least, or last among conferences that traveled most, but we have larger fish to fry.)

At the risk of appearing rude by being flippant in response to nonsense, so what?

I made three specific criticisms of other teams’ non-conference slates, noting the weak schedules of Kansas in 2007 and of Clemson and Texas Tech in 2008. I did not criticize any league as a whole---in fact, I noted that the Big 12 "appears to be a much-improved league in 2008," which is my main reason for believing Kansas and Texas Tech will struggle---for the simple and self-evident reason that conferences don’t make out their member institutions’ non-conference schedules; schools do.

It’s like that whole forest fire thing.

The out-of-conference scheduling practices of Kansas, Kansas State, and Texas Tech have nothing whatsoever to do with the out-of-conference scheduling practices of Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas, even though all six of those teams compete in the same league. The frequency with which L.S.U. lines up tough out-of-conference dates is utterly unrelated to the frequency with which Tennessee does likewise.

Beyond that, who cares how far we travel? Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, and South Carolina are able to take on longstanding rivals from B.C.S. conferences (Georgia Tech, Florida State, Louisville, and Clemson, respectively) without having to cross any state lines. That doesn’t mean we aren’t taking on tough customers; it just means quality opponents from other leagues are readily available in our neck of the woods.

Moreover, from what century is this criticism coming? In 2008, Georgia plays Arizona State in Tempe and hosts Georgia Tech, Alabama plays Clemson in Atlanta, Arkansas plays Texas in Austin, Auburn plays West Virginia in Morgantown, Florida plays Florida State in Tallahassee and hosts Hawaii and Miami (Florida), Kentucky plays Louisville on the road, Mississippi plays Wake Forest in Winston-Salem, Mississippi State plays Georgia Tech in Atlanta and Louisiana Tech in Ruston, South Carolina plays Clemson in Death Valley and hosts N.C. State, Tennessee plays U.C.L.A. in Los Angeles, and Vanderbilt plays Miami (Ohio) in Oxford and faces Wake Forest in Winston-Salem. You’d have to be an N.B.A. referee to claim that isn’t traveling.

Finally, while I cannot conscientiously claim that S.E.C. schedule makers are beyond reproach, there are some quarters from which I simply will not accept such broadsides, and Lubbock, Tex., happens to be one of them. While I have no ill will towards the Red Raiders, TB has no room to criticize.

I mean, how can you not love a team whose former coach was named Spike Dykes?

In the first eight years of the Mike Leach era (2000-2007), Texas Tech faced five Division I-AA teams: Stephen F. Austin in 2001, Sam Houston State and Indiana State in 2005, Southeast Louisiana in 2006, and Northwestern State in 2007. During that same span, the Bulldogs faced five Division I-AA opponents: Georgia Southern in 2000 and 2004, Northwestern State in 2002, Western Kentucky in 2006, and Western Carolina in 2007.

Although there were extenuating circumstances surrounding the 2002 game with the Demons (who were a last-minute replacement when Tulane backed out of a scheduled game with the Red and Black), I make no excuses; no Division I-A program that is serious about its football should ever schedule a Division I-AA opponent. Please note, though, that, while Georgia is backing away from the practice (just two such games since the 2004 season opener), Texas Tech is embracing it (four Division I-AA opponents in the last three years).

Furthermore, Georgia is scheduling out-of-conference teams from B.C.S. leagues . . . a dozen of them in the last eight years, in fact. The Red Raiders have scheduled only five during that span, with three of them (N.C. State, Ohio State, and Ole Miss) appearing on the slate in a single season (2002).

Texas Tech’s best recent regular-season outing against a mid-major came against Texas Christian in 2006, in a game Mike Leach’s squad lost. Even leaving aside the Bulldogs’ annual date with the Yellow Jackets, the Classic City Canines have faced Boise State, Clemson (twice), Colorado, and Oklahoma State since the start of the 2002 season, and all but the contest against the Broncos were part of home-and-home arrangements.

So, basically, we’ll go play ‘em in their house as long as they play on a green field.

Once again, by taking TB to task, I do not mean unfairly to malign Coach Leach or his team. However, TB’s comment smacked of the sort of ignorant and insular prejudice against other conferences that receives far too much play on message boards and on sports talk radio.

You know what I mean. "Pac-10 teams don’t play defense." "Big Ten teams play two or three tough games a year." "S.E.C. teams don’t travel." "Southern teams have more speed." Even if these widely-held biases were true at one time, they are flagrant falsehoods today. Accordingly, they deserve to be refuted each and every time they are repeated, lest a lie be told often enough that it becomes accepted as the truth.

When teams---teams, not conferences---line up weak schedule fodder with which to pad their won-lost records, they deserve to be called out for it. That is true without regard to whether the guilty parties play in the Southeast, in the Midwest, on the Pacific Coast, or in the Lone Star State.

I believe the Red Raiders are overrated, but time will tell and I wish them well. I am more than happy to engage in hard-hitting debate over deeply-held views, but, while I welcome such civil disagreements based upon verifiable facts and sound logic as Seth brought to the table, I have no patience with ripostes like TB’s which fail to hold water. Maybe Vince Dooley’s out-of-conference scheduling was as bad as Mike Leach’s (although I would dispute even that claim), but Coach Dooley is retired and Coach Leach is still riding the range. I believe we should compare apples to apples instead of confusing the past with the present.

I now return you to your regularly-scheduled weblog, which is already in progress.

Go ‘Dawgs!

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You don't have to bash away on Texas Tech...

...because I’m a K-Stater. I run Bring On The Cats. Due diligence.

My apologies for the inconsistency on the “dead last” and “least to travel” statement. I wrote that at about 7:00 a.m. as I was knotting my tie to go to work.

While I have looked over Georgia’s non-conference schedules for the past several years and have no doubt they are no worse than average compared to other BCS conference schools (I’ll concede that part of my argument), I find the entire “your schedule is weak” argument a bit ridiculous. I wonder what is gained by playing a “tough” non-conference schedule. K-State has been taken to task for buying out a game with Fresno State to play Montana State. While Fresno State is widely considered a team that plays difficult non-conference schedules (though I have, on my site, disputed just how difficult they really are) what has it earned them? Half a WAC title and no major bowl appearances. The critics can say what they will about Bill Snyder’s schedules back in the 1990s and early 2000s, but they helped build a program that won a Big 12 title, three division titles, and came within a quarter of playing for the national championship.

Let’s go ahead and grant for the moment that Texas Tech’s non-conference schedule is pretty weak, because by any objective measure, it is. However, a look at last year shows me everything I need to know about what playing a “tough” schedule is worth. National champion LSU played such powers as Middle Tennessee State, Tulane, Louisiana Tech and Virginia Tech on its way to the title game (yes, Va. Tech made the Orange Bowl, where it lost to KU, but I don’t believe I’m breaking new ground in saying the ACC was a little weak last year). The other team that found itself in the national title game was Ohio State, after the Buckeyes somehow withstood non-conference games against Youngstown State, Akron, Washington and Kent State. Another BCS bowl winner, KU, blew past Central Michigan, Southeastern Louisiana, Toledo and Florida International on its way to an (undeserved, just ask Missouri) Orange Bowl appearance. Obviously I’ll omit Hawaii from this list, because Georgia fans know better than anyone else what a fraud that team was.

Here’s my point. The first argument in support of your position that Texas Tech is overrated is that the Red Raiders’ schedule is weak. Not because they have potential defensive deficiencies (although you mentioned that later), and damn sure not because they don’t have a good offense. In this era where the BCS doesn’t take strength of schedule into account, I fail to see what good it does a team to play a strong non-conference schedule. Now, maybe you don’t believe Texas Tech will live up to the hype because it won’t beat Oklahoma or Texas or somebody else. But it seems to me beginning an argument with something that is arguably a strength under the current system is what struck me as ridiculous.

Oh, and if we’re counting petty errors in writing, it’s FCS, not Division I-AA.

We'll carry the banner high!

by TB on Jun 11, 2008 12:28 AM EDT   0 recs

Thanks for stopping by, TB

I regret having failed to make the connection with Bring On The Cats. My bad.

Fresno State is a special case, as Pat Hill’s squad has always adopted the “anybody, anytime, anywhere” mentality that causes the Bulldogs to play their best against B.C.S. conference opponents, leaving less in the tank for conference play. (Consider F.S.U.’s plummet after leaving it all on the field against U.S.C. in 2005.) Such a style of play, incidentally, has gotten Fresno State recent bowl wins over Georgia Tech (twice), U.C.L.A., and Virginia.

I believe there are as many examples on the other side of the argument which support the need for a strong non-conference schedule; e.g., Texas-Ohio State in 2005, Louisiana State-Virginia Tech in 2007 (which, as Sunday Morning Quarterback notes, remains the most impressive regular-season non-conference result of last autumn, which undoubtedly helped L.S.U. to get into the title game), and, very likely, Ohio State-Southern California and Georgia-Arizona State in 2008.

My broader point was that I believe Texas Tech’s rise to prominence (like Kansas State’s under Bill Snyder) is in some (though not all) ways a chimera, based on won-lost records inflated by blowout wins over weak teams. I quite agree that the system does not punish, and may even reward, such weak scheduling; where we disagree, apparently, is whether the system should encourage tougher scheduling. Poll voting, at least at the highest level, does appear to take strength of schedule into account, as it should, and, for my part, I will continue to sound the call for tougher slates among all serious college football programs.

Finally, I recognize that the N.C.A.A. changed it to “F.C.S.” and “F.B.S.” I also recognize that Prince changed his name to a symbol that cannot be pronounced. In both instances, I just rolled my eyes and kept calling them what they are. Like Phil Steele, I continue to have “Division I-A” and “Division I-AA” wired into my brain, and I’m not going to change.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jun 11, 2008 8:39 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Virginia Tech

You downplay LSU’s schedule by saying VT isn’t that good. I would retort simply this.

If Texas Tech would play Virginia Tech in a year, that would a year in which NO ONE would complain about TTU’s schedule. Most schools play 1 other BCS conference peer. TTU hasn’t done so since 2003, and that was Ole Miss or NC State.

by Paulwesterdawg on Jun 12, 2008 5:10 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Texas Tech

Whether or not Tech is turning to a trend towards DII games is debatable. While there are more in recent years, as you should well appreciate (having to have played the Demons in 2002), Tech only has Eastern Washington on their schedule in virtue of Tulsa backing out of our game; this was a last minute replacement, one Tech fans would much have prefered as LSU, but we couldn’t get them to agree on a home-and-home game agreeable to us.

Go register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Jun 11, 2008 7:45 AM EDT   0 recs

Thanks for clearing that up

I wasn’t aware of that, and I appreciate the clarification.

Six Division I-AA opponents in a four-year period still is quite a lot, but I’m glad to know that (except for 2005) the Red Raiders are only trying to schedule one a year, as many Division I-A teams (regrettably) do.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jun 11, 2008 8:26 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I tried to

address some of Kyle’s concerns here and would like to second Skin Patrol’s assertion that Eastern Washington is a replacement game because Tulsa dropped Texas Tech for Arkansas early in the year.

Go Raiders . . .

by Seth C on Jun 11, 2008 8:38 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Let me amend...

I see you didn’t include Eastern Washington in the four D I-AA teams Tech has played in the past three years. That said, I don’t see that as substantively different (given the sample size) of Georgia, who has played three in the past four years. Texas Tech, stated differently, has played four D I-AA opponents in the past four years.

Go register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Jun 11, 2008 8:27 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I believe I mentioned Eastern Washington . . .

. . . in the earlier posting that began this discussion, although, in this instance, I was looking at the prior years of the Mike Leach era, rather than including 2008.

While it does appear to me that (even allowing for last-minute replacement games on both schools’ parts) Texas Tech is slightly more prone to schedule Division I-AA opponents than Georgia is, I will grant that the Bulldogs and the Red Raiders are scheduling lower-division teams approximately as often for the sake of argument.

With what, though, is Texas Tech offsetting that tendency? (The same, by the way, holds true for Kansas under Mark Mangino and Kansas State under Bill Snyder.) The Raiders play an eight-game conference schedule in the tougher division of the Big 12. The ‘Dawgs play an eight-game conference schedule in (arguably) the tougher division of the S.E.C. While one team’s conference slate may be tougher than the other’s in a given year, Texas Tech’s Big 12 schedule and Georgia’s S.E.C. schedule are comparably difficult as a general proposition.

So that’s eight conference games and a Division I-AA game, which work out to be approximately equivalent. Georgia, though, plays Georgia Tech every single year, and faces the Yellow Jackets on the road every other year. In addition, the Red and Black are scheduling home games against tougher mid-majors (Boise State in 2005) and, increasingly, home-and-home series against B.C.S. conference opponents (Arizona State, Clemson, Colorado, Louisville, and Oregon).

Since facing (and coming up short against) an admittedly daunting non-conference slate in 2002, what has Texas Tech done in regular-season out-of-conference play outside of going 1-1 against T.C.U.? What is there to counterbalance all those cupcakes? I don’t see a Boise State in the bunch, much less an Arizona State, and certainly not a year-in/year-out clash with Georgia Tech.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jun 11, 2008 9:34 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Tech’s scheduling tendency has been to play regional, traditional rivals. The admittedly horrible New Mexico returns to the schedule for a 4 game stretch next year. SMU is a fixture on the TTU schedule and, with luck, they will be improving enough to give us a challenge and respect. We’ve been scheduling more and more home-home games with TCU. This year we’re going to Nevada, a mid-level mid-major, with a return trip not scheduled until 2010.

The Big XII is unfortunate in that, for the most part, we don’t have the natural overlap that the Big East, ACC, and SEC have. The North shares some territory with the Big 10 (Iowa). The South’s got two SEC schools close (Arkansas and LSU). LSU hates leaving their home stadium, though, and there are only so many Big XII schools Arkansas can play each year.

With travel costs on the rise, I think we’ll see more and more mid-level schools trying to stay as close to home as possible. TTU’s trying to make a break for the top-level, but we’re still constrained by mid-level income. We can’t afford to pay off the Tulsas, UNT’s, and others for 1-off games (and obviously a team like Tulsa seems to prefer that to a home-home), and a far-off home-home game after you account for band, cheerleaders, etc, is considered a major loss. The gator bowl payout was nearly $200k short of the cost of our going there. A home and home game in Florida would be missing that travel-cost payout.

I will predict the rise of neutral-site, 1-off games in the coming years. Same sort of tv-stadium deals that Jerry Jones is promising to the Oklahoma State v. TTU matchup in Dallas. 2-4 million per team every year and we never have to go to Boone Pickens Stadium again? Yes, please.

Would I like for TTU to play more BCS-level opponents? Absolutely. For now, I’m glad the the two FCS schools that we are playing are potentially playoff-caliber teams.

by kayakyakr on Jun 11, 2008 10:59 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

TTU's revenues...

The power conference schools grow their revenues via ticket prices and donations associated with seat licenses. TTU would see a rise in ticket demand (and therefore revenue) by field a more competitive / entertaining schedule.

To say they can’t afford to play other big schools…I would argue that they can’t afford not to.

by Paulwesterdawg on Jun 12, 2008 5:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

If Westerdawg is wrong . . .

. . . why is it that the Baylor Bears’ 2008 non-conference slate includes home games against Wake Forest and Washington State, followed by a Friday night road game against Connecticut?

Baylor, the saddest sack program in the Big 12 (which, due to Ann Richards’s influence, was able to take the spot that ought to have gone to Houston or T.C.U.), hosts an A.C.C. team that has won 20 games in the last two years, hosts a Pac-10 team that has had three ten-win seasons in the 21st century, and travels to Storrs for a date with a Big East program that has posted three seasons of eight wins or better in the last five years.

If Baylor can do that, surely Texas Tech can schedule one regular-season non-conference game against a B.C.S. conference opponent in a five-year period. Maybe the “fear factor” argument cuts both ways; the Bears sure don’t seem to be scared.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jun 13, 2008 8:18 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Baylor

Well…

Baylor doesn’t need the money; their endowment is over 1B dollars. Ours: LSU, it didn’t work out. It wasn’t because of “fear” either.

Go register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Jun 15, 2008 10:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Baylor University's endowment is over $1 billion . . .

. . . or the Baylor University athletic department’s endowment is over $1 billion?

I suspect it’s the former and that athletics derive minimal, if any, benefit from the money put up to fund academics. If anything, it’s more likely the case that the athletic department makes “donations” to the university than the other way around.

In short, Baylor’s cash reserves are impressive, but that has little to do with the Bears’ sports programs. It’s not the size of Baylor’s endowment that counts, it’s how they use it.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jun 18, 2008 9:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Baylor

My guess is Baylor is able to get home games other BCS schools can’t because they are simply awful. Few decent BCS schools will schedule a home-and-home with Texas Tech, because they don’t want to risk what would be a nearly certain defeat in the desert. On the other hand, a lot of schools wouldn’t mind giving up a home game to travel to Waco, even though the town is brutal, because the Bears are clawless and a win is almost certain.

We'll carry the banner high!

by TB on Jun 19, 2008 12:02 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Clearly, you're correct . . .

. . . that a game in Lubbock is riskier than a game in Waco (although I think “nearly certain defeat” is a tad strong).

We are, however, talking about giving up a home game, which is not in the least inconsequential for any major program. Moreover, as the Big 12’s perennial bottom-feeders, the Bears would not seem likely to be able to get anyone to come to them. (Remember Vanderbilt’s recent season-opener against Michigan in Ann Arbor, which did not require the Wolverines to travel to Nashville in return. The Commodores agreed to do this for the T.V. exposure it would bring them.)

Finally, bear in mind that we’re talking about Wake, Wazoo, and U.Conn. While all ought to be favored against B.U., none of these teams can safely call Baylor a gimme. Frankly, the Bears beating the Cougars or the Huskies in Waco would surprise me substantially less than the Red Raiders beating the Bayou Bengals in Lubbock, if L.S.U. agreed to such a game.

By the way, TB . . . thanks.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jun 19, 2008 10:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

BTW -- Neutral Site games

I think you’ll see a few neutral sites that commit to a yearly program of invitees.

Dallas – New Cotton Bowl
Orlando – New Citrus Bowl (post-renovation)
Jacksonville – Possibly (FSU vs. Bama and now FSU vs. Colorado)
Atlanta – ACC vs. SEC season opener (‘08 and ‘10 already booked)
St. Louis – Maybe (Illinois vs. Mizzou is 4 year deal)

Beyond those 5 cities/venues, I’m not sure how widespread the Neutral Site games will be. It’ll be interesting to see what appetite exists for their return. In the old days, neutral site games were VERY common.

It’s an interesting trend to watch.

by Paulwesterdawg on Jun 12, 2008 5:29 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Something to consider...

I think when 2002 schedules were being made, the world was unfamiliar with Mike Leach and the Texas Tech program. By now I think that’s changed. I doubt whether B.C.S. schools have much to gain from scheduling with Texas Tech, and I doubt Texas Tech has much to gain from scheduling with serious mid-majors (though we do anyways, with TCU). (Let me also add: I personally think Texas Tech has everything to gain from tougher scheduling, because I think winning against quality opponents is habitual, is best done through repetition, etc. and I think the road to beating Texas and Oklahoma in the same year may involve taking some bruises from very serious OOC scheduled opponents.)

Regarding BCS opponents, what do programs have to gain by scheduling with Texas Tech? Despite the proliferation of the spread offense, Tech’s remains unique and it’s unlikely that anything learned against the Air Raid will be useful learning for the defense throughout the remainder of the schedule. And, until recent perhaps overblown expectation, offenses don’t serve to learn much by playing Texas Tech. There’s the possibility of sneaking into the Texas recruiting world with a victory over Tech, but that’s realistic only for a few regional opponents and, even then, not really. Texas Tech hasn’t recruited Texas all that well, so it’s difficult to say you’d really be stealing their recruits.

Texas Tech is a pretty good team overall qualified thus: We’re not a very good road team. We’re a phenomenal home team. That’s hardly unusual, but home-and-home games with most opponents represent the prospect of a loss for the bad guys, even if they’re obviously the better team. As much as we like to lay down against someone we shouldn’t, Tech is just as likely to be the winning underdog in a big upset (Oklahoma last year, Cal in ‘04, Texas in… ‘02, etc.)

For Texas Tech, something you’re not factoring in is that we aren’t a program with a lot of money. We really, really, really need those home games. And no one of consequence would or should want to schedule an away game only with Tech. From where we’re sitting, the recent bail out by Tulsa simply reinforces our paranoia that teams will schedule home and homes with us but flake out later; hence why we wanted LSU to commit to a home game FIRST, which they were reluctant to do. (I don’t know why, we don’t have the money to bail out.)

The X factor here is a small west Texas town called Lubbock, that exists to service College students and very desparately needs the business generated by home football games. I don’t know what the story in Athens, Georgia, is, but I had the pleasure of traveling Europe with a Bulldog and his stories of Athens were substantially different than my stories of Lubbock, at least relating to the economic viability of that city independent the football schedule.

In conclusion, I’d suggest that there are factors in play here relating to why Texas Tech has softened its schedule since 2002 that aren’t probably getting their proper attention here. First is the changing nature of the program and the emergence of Mike Leach and the Air Raid offense, and I’m suggesting that impacts OTHER team’s willingness to schedule us. Second is the need for many, many home games to generate the revenue our program happens to desparately need (and, even with the home games, we fail in that endeavor relative to in-state, same division opponents such as Texas A&M and Texas). Our recruiting is bad enough in our home state where inviting others to participate in the fertile recruiting that is Texas turns out to be a risky prospect. And, despite all that, we get hosed by Tulsa, who happens to have an endowment many times over larger than ours, and then try unsuccessfully to schedule LSU. If our OOC schedule went SMU, LSU, Massachussetts, Nevada, I doubt we’d be having this discussion simply for the sheer strength of having LSU on our OOC schedule. Instead we have two FCS teams and no LSU, and we look soft. We are soft.

If I had my druthers, Texas Tech would be playing tougher schedules early on. That being said, I trust Mike Leach to do what he thinks is best for the program, and I think there’s at least some compelling logic to having a soft schedule. In the Big 12 south, working against a recruiting and financial deficit against many other in conference players, there might be something to getting your 3-4 easy OOC wins so you can necessarily qualify for a Bowl game if things go 4-4 or worse in conference play. I think that’s probably dated reasoning (since we’re getting better and probably don’t need as many wins to come from the OOC) but it seemed plausible at one time.

Again, we got hosed by Tulsa and couldn’t secure LSU. For reasons outside Tech’s control, our schedule looks very different than it should have.

Go register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Jun 11, 2008 7:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Are you seriously saying that teams are afraid of TTU?

Seriously? Since 2000, Leach has hardly set the world on fire against quality teams. He’s roughly .500 against BCS teams that went to bowls.

When you take his ownership of Texas A&M out of the equation, the numbers plummet below .500.

When you raise the bar to BCS teams with 8+ wins, the win totals dry up heavily.

TTU is a paper tiger.

by Paulwesterdawg on Jun 12, 2008 5:23 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes.

I’m also saying that teams have little to gain from playing Texas Tech, even in victory, for all the reasons you just stated. They are expected to win but forced to play a circus program.

We win Bowl games, too.

Go register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Jun 12, 2008 11:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I can't understand...

what the big deal is here. You can not fault a program for taking advantage of the system they are in. In this era in college football it is more beneficial to play cupcakes in the pre season and get wins then it is to play equal competition. I would love a matchup like Tech vs Georgia but it just isn’t going to happen pre season. Tech plays one FCS team every year and this year is only different because Tulsa backed out. You can not ask more of a team then to schedule a home game against a mid level team like Tulsa and another decent mid major away game like Nevada. SMU should be improved this year with their new coach so I can’t seem to understand why Tech is getting so much heat for a weak schedule. Just my two cents.

"Once in awhile, a pirate can beat a soldier"

by crabtreeforheisman on Jun 11, 2008 10:00 AM EDT   0 recs

Just to clarify . . .

. . . this discussion started with my posting about four teams that I thought were being ranked higher by the preseason polls and the preview magazines than I believed was justified. Obviously, no one yet knows whether I am right or, for instance, Phil Steele is right when it comes to Clemson, Kansas, Pittsburgh, or Texas Tech. I was just offering my opinion and we will learn in the fall who was correct.

(As an aside, I would offer two points in my defense. First of all, my weekly predictions during the season are made under the heading “Don’t Bet On It!” I freely admit that my prognosticating skills are average, at best, so I make no claim to being an expert. Secondly, each January, after the season is done, I go back and revisit my preseason predictions to evaluate where I was right and where I was wrong.)

My initial posting received several responses, most of which I found reasonable despite my disagreement with many of their conclusions. However, TB trotted out the claim that S.E.C. teams don’t travel, which is, at best, an outdated notion. The above posting was an effort to rebut that tired canard, which needs to be consigned to the scrap heap of false cliches, alongside “S.E.C. speed!” and the usual carping about Pac-10 defenses and Big Ten offenses. I pledged last summer to fight the conference wars no longer, so I do what I can to address the silly and petty bigotries many fans still hold against other leagues and regions. (This is a two-way street, by the way, as I not only defend the S.E.C. against unfounded criticisms, but I also have criticized Phillip Fulmer, Urban Meyer, Les Miles, and Nick Saban for ill-considered comments about other leagues. I’m taking a late lunch right now, but I’ll post the links later if you’d like.)

I erred (and owned up to my error) by failing to note that TB is a Kansas State fan. Because his comment was offered at a Texas Tech weblog, I mistakenly presumed he was a Red Raider fan. I was wrong, and I expressed my regret at having made that error.

So, to reiterate, the course of events was this: I listed Texas Tech as one of the teams I thought was overrated by the preseason magazines, in part because the Red Raiders’ won-lost records have been bolstered by soft non-conference slates; various responses were offered, including TB’s comment singling out the S.E.C. as a whole; I authored the above posting rebutting TB’s argument; and this comment thread ensued.

I regret that Texas Tech (a team Georgia played twice during the regular season in the 1990s, by the way) got dragged into the middle of this, which was my mistake, although (a) nothing I have noted about the Red Raiders is inaccurate (even if, as with the Tulsa example, it was incomplete, and I am grateful for the clarification) and (b) I trust a similar comparison of Georgia’s out-of-conference scheduling since the start of the Bill Snyder era would reveal a similar superiority to the scheduling practices of TB’s Wildcats. At a minimum, though, I believe my point--that singling out the S.E.C. for special criticism regarding out-of-conference scheduling is unwarranted and unjustified—has been proven, even if extenuating circumstances explain Texas Tech’s non-league slates.

I don’t even think we have to agree to disagree, because we may have arrived at a point at which we are carrying on two different, parallel conversations. In any case, though, I thank you for taking the time to comment and I hope that explains how we got from there to here.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jun 11, 2008 3:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Home and Home ONLY!

Texas Tech @ Ohio State in 2002

Texas Tech @ Ole Miss in 2003

Texas Tech @ NC State in 2003

Texas Tech @ TCU in 2006

What I have to assume is that very few people outside of Lubbock know is that Mike Leach will play a Home-and-Home with ANYONE. He has stated multiple times that he will do a Home-and-Home with anyone who wants to play, but he is not going to go play a team at their home with out them coming to Lubbock. Why would he?

Teams from the Big 6 know this and are not about to go to Lubbock and try to defend a High Powered Texas Tech offense and end their season in pre-conference. Texas Tech was more than willing to do a Home-and-Home with LSU, but LSU was scared to come to Lubbock. How can you blame Texas Tech for playing cupcakes in OOC when we can’t get anyone to come to Lubbock and risk losing and ruining their season.

I am 100% positive that Texas Tech would do a Home-and-Home deal with Georgia, Ohio State, LSU, USC, or anyone who would come to Lubbock. The problem is none of those teams will come to Lubbock, it’s a lose/lose situation for the Big Boys. If they go to Lubbock and can’t defend Leach’s offense their season is ruined, and if they do go in there and beat Tech you get no credit because you are supposed to beat Tech.

If you want to blame anyone for Tech scheduling two FCS schools this year, blame Tulsa they backed out of a signed contract, and blame LSU because they don’t want to come to Lubbock.

Don’t blame Texas Tech because they can’t get good teams to risk an early season loss.

While I do tend to agree with your assesment of Kansas being overrated this chart shows other wise.

http://preseason.stassen.com/over-under/all-teams.html

In the (pathetic) history of KU football they have never been overrated, they could very well be this year, but History is not on your side.

As far as Texas Tech goes, the only year Texas Tech did not end ranked higher than their preseason ranking was in 2006. Overall KU and Tech are historically among the most underrated teams.

I don’t really see how the 2nd youngest team in the Nation that finished #22 and returns near everyone can be overrated. Not only does Texas Tech return everyone they have key additions at their weakest spot last year on the D-line. Texas Tech finished 2007 with the #3 defense in the Big 12 and only add more talent in 08’.

To each his own opinion

by TechAdvisor on Jun 11, 2008 12:55 PM EDT   0 recs

I don’t believe this is the correct thread to defend KU and TTU’s potential overrating. That said, I do believe you speak the truth, though it comes out kinda homerized. I don’t believe that the “afraid to play us” statement will last much longer, provided we truly aren’t overrated this season.

by kayakyakr on Jun 11, 2008 6:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

As much as I like any chart . . .

. . . that shows Georgia is the eighth-most underrated team in the country (and the most underrated in the S.E.C.), there are two problems with that table.

First of all, it merely measures preseason and postseason rankings. By definition, any “surprise” team (for instance, Washington State, the team at the top of the table and a squad that always seemed to go from 5-6 to 10-2 without warning) would be “underrated” (more likely, not initially ranked) using that metric.

Poll rankings, however, are not invariably synonymous with quality, either in the preseason (which is largely guesswork) or in the postseason (when pretty records often receive rankings that were not earned based upon the quality of the competition). I would be more impressed with those numbers if they reflected resume rankers’ estimations rather than power pollsters’ evaluations.

Secondly, what does history have to do with it? I think the pollsters and previewers are overrating Kansas and Texas Tech this year because they are being ranked highly. Unlike in previous years, they have nowhere to go but down, relatively speaking. Whether the Jayhawks were given their due in the astonishingly small sample size of the three seasons since 1989 in which they ended up ranked is absolutely irrelevant to whether their 2008 preseason ranking holds a thimbleful of water.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jun 11, 2008 10:51 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Incidentally . . .

. . . the eight most “overrated” teams since 1989, according to that chart, are, in order, Michigan, Texas, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Florida State, Southern California, Miami (Florida), and Oklahoma.

All but one of those teams have won national championships since 1989; the lone exception (Notre Dame) won the national title in 1988 and contended for it in 1989 and 1993. According to this table, the winners of the 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2004, and 2005 national championships are the eight most overrated teams in college football during that period. (The winner of the 1996 and 2006 crowns ranks 11th, as well.)

Could it simply be that, the bigger you are, the harder you fall? Of course teams that routinely begin the season ranked highly are “overrated” in that sense; if U.S.C. begins the season ranked No. 1 and ends the season ranked No. 3, it was “overrated,” but, if Texas Tech starts the season unranked and ends the season ranked No. 25, it was “underrated.”

In short, being “underrated” doesn’t necessarily make you good . . . and certainly not in a class with the teams that are “overrated.”

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jun 11, 2008 11:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

T Kyle King Agree

Kyle I Agree with the majority of what you said. I do hope that you are wrong about the Red Raiders and right about the Jayhawks. KU and Hawaii had one of the easiest runs to a BCS game that I can ever remember.

by TechAdvisor on Jun 12, 2008 2:25 PM EDT   0 recs

Excellent

I haven’t read a longish discussion like this to the end in quite a while, I enjoyed every bit of it.

I haven’t met a Tech fan that doesn’t wish for better non-conference games. For one thing, more chance of seeing them on TV. Here’s hoping that Tech doesn’t commit to play in the Taj Majones till the very last minute, so Jerry Jones will continue to woo us by putting some of these weaker games on the NFL channel.

I loved the chart showing Texas as the second most over rated program since 1989. Even if it doesn’t really mean anything, we all know, deep down, it does.

by Thorne on Jun 15, 2008 2:39 PM EDT   0 recs

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