What are reasonable expectations?
As Tommy Tuberville packs up his office on the Plains, I'm realizing that in two years Mark Richt will have finished up his first decade at the University of Georgia. Absolute best case scenario (in my mind) is two more SEC titles and a BCS title if everything else falls into place. Let's assume, though, that over the next two years we simply split with UF. Mark Richt and UGA over the last ten years will be a staggering 3-7 vs. the Gators. Two wins over the next two year will be 4-6, but if we work with numbers and odds the chances are actually much better (unfortunately) that the Dawgs will go 0-2 and leave the overall slate over the 10 year span at 2-8.
I ask all of this as a simple question of sustained success overall but continued bedwetting against the Gators. If things remain the same (competitive against everyone else and piss-poor against UF) will there be talk about a change in regime? I think most of us might have assumed Richt was at UGA for the long-haul, but I really do wonder what he's going to have to start doing vs. Florida specifically in order to stay in Athens.
Again, I put this forward simply for discussion since I don't have any Dawg fans here in Alabama to discuss this with. I don't know where I come down on it, either. I've just been thinking about this in light of the recent Tuberville "resignation".
Also, I don't really feel like proofreading this, so that's that.
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Resonable expectations....
In my mind I expect the following (and in the following order)
1) Play within the rules of the NCAA (i.e. stay off probation, graduate players, etc)
2) Respect and honor the tradition and the good name of the University of Georgia
3) Show up prepared to play and give 100% for 60 minutes
4) Be competative every game, if you lose make the other team earn it.
5) Compete for the SEC championship every year (and by that I mean that at the beginning of the season winning the SEC is not a far fetched idea)
6) Beat our rivals on a regular basis to include Florida
7) Win an SEC Championship every 3-5 years
8) Be in the mix for a MNC 3 out of every 5 years and hope we get a little lucky.
It is a given that some years are just going to be “off” years due to injuries, youth, or recruiting busts. A good staff will minimize these and have 2-3 years per recruiting cycle where all the pieces are in place.
Overall Coach Richt and his staff have done all of the above, with a few exceptions. I honestly wouldn’t care that we are 9-3 right now if in the 3 losses our guys had come out prepared and played their tails off for 60 min and just lost to 3 better teams. It happens and that was the rule during the early years, from 2002-2005 (with the exception of the Sugar Bowl) you never saw a UGA team that wasn’t prepared and fought for the entire game to win.
by RocketDawg on
Dec 4, 2008 8:37 PM EST
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Thanks.
Good points. It’s frustrating to think of how close we were in all of our games throughout the first half of Richt’s campaign (with the exception, I think, of the 2003 SECCG), and the way we’ve just gotten blasted lately. I guess I’m just falling into a deeper state of despair as I was Bama and UF get so much praise and have to hear Richt wax about how great they are.
I’ve got to remind myself that there have been times when a Richt-coached team beat a Saban-coached team, and I hate that some of us hope that Meyer will go to ND or one of his other “dream jobs” just so he’ll be out of the East.
Other times, I feel like we’re the Phil Mickelson’s of the SEC: good, consistent, a bit lazy. However, the majors will come at some point. I don’t know. I just hate that so many of us pointed to this year, and now we’re stuck with the Bulldog Battle Cry of “Wait til next year.”
by Father Dawg on
Dec 6, 2008 1:50 PM EST
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I agree with RocketDawg 100 per cent
Well said.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on
Dec 4, 2008 9:28 PM EST
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Official Expectations of the Rational Georgia Fan
RocketDawg, your list, in your order, is EXACTLY what a rational Georgia fan should expect every year from this program and this regime. It seems that far too often fans of major D-1 schools forget that only one team can win the national championship (or even their own conference championship) in a given year. It’s not an easily attainable thing. That being said, we should expect a talented team to come out prepared to win every game (which we flat did not do at least twice this season). As MaconDawg pointed out yesterday, we could very realistically be looking at a 7-5 (or worse!) season last year. Of course, we feared the same in 2005 and that turned out alright. I just hope that if CMR does have the worst year of his tenure next year that we do exactly the opposite of what Auburn did. At this point, nobody should doubt the ability of Coach Richt and his staff. Every team has down years (look at LSU one year removed from a national championship!), but continuity is a terribly underrated thing in today’s college football world. We would be making a grave mistake to even whisper of removing CMR.
Nice work, RocketDawg.
by ForsythCoDawg on
Dec 4, 2008 10:22 PM EST
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Here's a thing to consider
Although everyone has been talking about this year as our first “real” shot at a national title, Kyle has been consistent in pointing out that the only difference between Georgia ‘02 and Florida ’06, in terms of making it to the Big Game, was that a previously undefeated team, assumed to be a lock to the BCSNCG, didn’t wet the bet against an underdog on the last week of regular season play and hand us the Championship game berth on a silver (crystal?) platter. UGA ‘02 and UF ’06 had identical records; it was USC’s slip-up that put UF in title game in 2006, while UGA had to contend with two major-conference unbeatens in 2002. In terms of things Richt could control, he did a national championship-caliber job that year. regardless of whether fate had a NCG berth waiting for us.
And again: in the twelve-game regular season, UGA ‘07 and LSU ’07 had identical records. Both lost to two SEC opponents; but while LSU’s biggest threat in the west was 5-3 (conf) Auburn, we had to deal with a Tennessee team with an identical 6-2 conference record and the tiebreaker. I’m not complaining, just pointing out that over the course of twelve games our record was identical to that of the eventual national champions. While people these days are complaining about the way the coaches have coached down a national title-contending team into a mediocre one, they seem to be forgetting that last year Coach Richt and co. coached an alright team into a national title-contending one. Right now, people are complaining about “never” getting a shot at the big one under Richt; yet they forgetting that there were plenty of people lobbying for us to get in the Big Game just last year, and those who weren’t still admitted that we were playing well enough to win the game if we did. Sure, it was mostly due to stuff out of our hands that we would even be considered for the title game (that is, every other major contender wetting the bed in a major way at some point during the season), but the fact remains that a seizable amount of fans and sports media thought, at the end of last season, that we were strong enough to play for a national championship.
My point is this: we’ve been “in the mix twice” already in the CMR administration. Not when we expected to be or were hoping to be, but the fact remains that we were. For CMR to put our team “in the mix” for two seasons out of eight, having taken over a team which hadn’t even sniffed an SEC championship for decades, in addition to sharing a conference with two teams who have won three MNCs during his tenure (not even counting the possibility of a Bama or UF championship this year) . . . that’s impressive in my book. There’s no doubt that this season is a disappointment, not so much for the fact that we aren’t in the Big Game but for the way we played ourselves out of contention, but we can’t let it ruin our perspective. The truth is in the numbers:
2 SEC Championships
5-2 Bowl Record (2-1 in the BCS)
Even including the Florida ledger, the indisputably best record against our traditional rivals of any Georgia coach over the course of his first seven seasons
A top 25 finish in at least one major poll for every single season, including five Top Ten rankings and the single highest final ranking of any UGA team since 1980 (AP #2, 2007).
. . . And, as I’ve argued above, being “in the mix” for the Crystal Football twice over that career.
If that isn’t a recipe for jubilation, let alone “reasonable” satisfaction, I don’t know what is.
by wwcmrd? on
Dec 6, 2008 6:34 PM EST
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Thanks.
Well said; I’ve leaned on the 02 UGA vs. 06 UF discussion many times over the past couple of years. If I’m not mistaken, wasn’t it similar circumstances for 03 LSU?
Also, something else I’ve been thinking about is the 2-6 record vs. UF. What hasn’t been mentioned, though, is that UF has had the most significant coaching turnover of any UGA opponent over the past eight years. I don’t have the numbers in front of me (nor do I feel like digging them up), but that’s something I also use to talk myself off the ledge when wondering WTH we can’t get over the Gator-hump.
I hate hoping that Urbs takes a position as the HC at ND just to get him out of our hair, but I also wonder what things at UF would be like did he not have Tebow running the show. So many things to wonder about.
@ wwcmrd?, you’re right. We’ve been in the mix with teams not supposed to be there, but it sucks to NOT be in the mix with a team that was.
Thanks again to everyone for your well-thought responses!
by Father Dawg on
Dec 9, 2008 12:25 PM EST
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Many factors have come into play
In my opinion, the Jacksonville site is not one of them, but three significant changes have had a huge impact:
1. By far the two best coaches in University of Florida history have been at the helm of the Gator program in 16 of the last 19 seasons. Because of institutional advantages (facilities, campus location, recruiting hotbed, money, etc.), U.F. always was a sleeping giant. Steve Spurrier awakened, and Urban Meyer reawakened, that giant. Meanwhile, two of the three worst Georgia coaches to have served since 1909 were at the helm in Athens for 12 of the last 20 years.
2. The Head Ball Coach shrewdly lobbied for, and got, a regular (though not perennial) open date prior to the Georgia game, which provided Florida with the same advantages all well-coached teams get after a bye week.
3. The S.E.C.’s switch from the 5-2-1 scheduling model (five division opponents, two permanent opponents from the other division, one rotating opponent from the other division) to the 5-1-2 scheduling model (five division opponents, one permanent opponent from the other division, two rotating opponents from the other division) meant that Florida no longer plays Auburn annually. This is significant because, historically, Florida played Auburn and then Georgia, Georgia played Florida and then Auburn, and Auburn played Georgia and then Alabama. Unsurprisingly, during the period that those teams annually played back-to-back tough games, Florida did better against Auburn than against Georgia, Georgia did better against Florida than against Auburn, and Auburn did better against Georgia than against Alabama.
Those, of course, are oversimplifications; individual games are won and lost for a variety of reasons, usually involving a combination of factors, and, clearly, the Gators have been in the Bulldogs’ heads (as evidenced by their otherwise largely inexplicable 1-2 record against Ron Zook-coached Florida squads), but those are some of the reasons the tides have turned in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.
Those are explanations, not excuses, but understanding the reasons is essential to determining how best to counteract them.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on
Dec 9, 2008 12:52 PM EST
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I don't like Meyer...
…but I have begun to grudgingly respect his ability as a coach. One of his greatest attributes is his willingness to mold his offense around his players’ abilities. He did it around Chris Leak in 06 and wound up with a NC. He’s done it this year around his midget running backs and may very well get another NC (dang it).
by wqueenjr on
Dec 9, 2008 2:48 PM EST
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TO wwcmcrd
I stand and applaud in whole-hearted agreement….bravo!!!!!
by SouthGADawg on
Dec 6, 2008 9:45 PM EST
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