Today Is a Special Day for Everyone Who Hates Auburn

by T Kyle King on Dec 28, 2008 1:00 AM EST in Football Comment 17 comments

’Tis the season to celebrate, especially here in Bulldog Nation, what with the Good News and the good news.

Accordingly, I wanted to make you aware of the fact that, whether you knew it or not, today is a day you should mark on your calendar as an occasion worth commemorating, for the return of this day is likely to bring the Georgia faithful much joy for the next three to five years.

Today, December 28, is Gene Chizik’s 47th birthday.

It’s too bad the day falls on the Sunday of a holiday weekend. This is the sort of thing I’d take the day off from work to celebrate.

Go ‘Dawgs!

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And how did he celebrate it?

By hiring the OC of the team with the #2 ranked scoring offense, the #8 ranked rushing offense in ypg, the #9 ranked rushing offense in ypr, the #7 ranked passing offense in ypg, the #1 ranked passing offense in ypa, the #2 ranked total offense in ypg, and the #1 ranked total offense in ypp. It’s a special day indeed.

War Damn Eagle!

by PowerOfDixieland on Dec 29, 2008 2:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Admit it, PowerOfDixieland . . .

. . . you felt pretty silly typing that, didn’t you?

Yeah, Gus Malzahn has me shaking in my boots. After it worked out so well for Auburn when the Plainsmen hired the best offensive coordinator from the Sun Belt (Tony Franklin), I’m sure it’s going to work out equally well for the Tigers now that they’ve hired the best offensive coordinator from Conference USA.

I’ll be impressed when Auburn hires somebody who’s ready to wear big boy shoes. Until then, Gene Chizik just brought in Gerry Faust to be his right-hand man.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Dec 29, 2008 10:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

as Disraeli famously pointed out...

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

by kleph on Dec 29, 2008 11:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gerry Faust?

Puh-lease. The only thing they have in common is that they were high school coaches before hitting the big show. As far as “wearing big boy shoes” and the like, I’ve been impressed with Florida’s hire of someone from the MWC to be their head coach, haven’t you? Pat Dye wasn’t exactly Vince Lombardi when we hired him. Having major SEC experience is one of the most overrated factors in coaching to me.

There are some huge differences between Franklin’s hire and Malzahn’s hire, as well. For one, Malzahn will be able to bring in his own offensive staff, or at least hire a staff who will be flexible enough to teach his offense, unlike the Franklin fiasco. Another thing would be that Chris Todd will get nowhere near the starting job (God willing).

Now, obviously, we won’t have the #1 offense in the country next year. With the players we have at the skill positions, it’s near-impossible. But you have to admit that it’s almost guarantee we will be better, and likely substantially so. Of course, substantial increase over last year’s offensive production could mean the 70th best offense rather than the 11_th ranked, but we just have to be patient. If we give him time and bring in better talent on offense, the offense could be dominant.

And finally, you “not shaking in your boots” makes me feel better because a) it shows your hubris and b) you were shaking in your boots over Franklin’s offense last year (rough quote: “Auburn is going to be good”) and if you were that wrong about our offense being good, then hopefully you’ll be that wrong about our offense being bad.

War Damn Eagle!

by PowerOfDixieland on Dec 29, 2008 2:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You have your stats and I have mine

Obviously you’ve never taken a Statistics course of any time. Just because stats say one thing doesn’t mean they correlate directly to the results. I performed my own analysis on the Tulsa season, leaving out Central Arkansas as they are FCS. I will only address your overall statistics rather than ypr and ypp as those would have taken too long to quantify on a team by team basis. In your case, you lay out that Malzahn’s offense was the #2 ranked scoring offense in the country. The average scoring defense of Tulsa’s opponent’s was 88. The best scoring defense they played this year was the 31st ranked East Carolina Pirates, which surprisingly held Tulsa to its lowest scoring output, 24. Tulsa averaged 46.75 points per game, but only played two teams that were ranked better than 50 in scoring defense.

You mention that they were ranked as the #8 rushing offense in ypg. The average rushing defense of their opponents was 88. The best rushing defense they played was the 24th ranked New Mexico Lobos, which held them to 137 yards, their 2nd lowest output on the season. Tulsa averaged 225 rushing yards per game, but only played two teams that were ranked better than 50 in rushing defense.

You also mention that they were ranked as the #7 passing offense in ypg. The average passing defense of their opponents was 83. The best passing defense they played was the 17th ranked Tulane Green Wave, which held them to their season low output of 104 passing yards. Tulsa averaged 323 passing yards per game, but similar to above only played two teams that were ranked better than 50 in passing defense.

In summation, what Tulsa did last year was impressive, no doubt. That’s a lot of yards and a lot of points. Malzahn may turn out to be a great hire. I just ask that you don’t wave inflated statistics around as the measuring stick of potential success. In each defensive category, only two out of Tulsa’s twelve opponents ranked in the top 50 nationally in that respective category. When a Malzahn offense can put up those stats against the big boys, then you may gloat at will. Until then, I remain skeptical as every time they played a decent defense they were held to their season low offensive output. I’m excited to see what his offense can do when playing a decent defense every week.

http://hobnailboot.blogspot.com/

by AuditDawg on Dec 29, 2008 4:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And obviously my English skills are lacking

That should be “Statistics course of any kind.”

http://hobnailboot.blogspot.com/

by AuditDawg on Dec 29, 2008 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The liberal arts school grad calling out the engineering school grad on his stats while messing up his sentence

Hahaha.

Before you go accusing me of not knowing statistics, let me say to you that I’ve taken FOUR statistics courses. What you should be accusing me of is not doing enough research and underesimating the transition from C-USA to the SEC, because I cited not only the broad stats per game, but the more telling stats per play. When your offense is as high-speed as theirs, it could be easy to rack up total yards without actually accomplishing anything. Imagine a team who is so high-speed it runs 200 (hyperbole intended) plays in one game, and gains 500 yards. The 500 yards look impressive, but that’s only 2.5 per play. So, my statistics are fine, it’s my neglect of what kind of defenses Tulsa played that is under fire. Well, allow me to retort.

Have you ever thought that Tulsa’s opponents’ defensive statistics were bad because they had to play Tulsa? (Side note: It was kind of funny typing that, but bear with me…) Below I will go game-by-game and show teams’ defensive averages compared with the amount they gave up against Tulsa (all are just yards per game and yards per play, I don’t feel like doing more than that):

Team			Average		Tulsa's yardage against them
--------------------------------------------------------------------
UAB			429.9			601
North Texas		482.6			555
New Mexico		335.3			606
Central Arkansas		399.3			641
Rice			466.8			577
SMU			479.5			602
UTEP			469.8			791(!)
Central Florida		334.3			436
Arkansas			375.2			528
Houston			418.6			501
Tulane			391.3			489
Marshall			418.1			516
East Carolina		334.8			399

Team			Average		Tulsa's yardage against them
--------------------------------------------------------------------
UAB			6.6			9.54
North Texas		7.1			7.93
New Mexico		5.0			7.97
Central Arkansas		5.9			9.29
Rice			6.4			7.30
SMU			6.5			7.43
UTEP			6.6			9.42
Central Florida		4.7			7.65
Arkansas			5.6			6.60
Houston			5.7			6.19
Tulane			6.3			8.24
Marshall			5.4			5.86
East Carolina		5.0			4.11

As you can see, they performed better against their opposing competition in all games in ypg, and in all but one game in ypp.

So, to conclude, I don’t expect this kind of production out of Auburn’s offense next year, or likely even the year after that. I’d love to be pleasantly surprised, but I seriously doubt I will be. What I expect is marked improvement over last year’s offense that was basicaly a [something that rhymes with “luster duck”. Maybe move up into the 50-70 range in terms of rankings of offensive categories, into the middle of the pack in the SEC. If Chizik can at least keep the defense at its 2008 level, or make it better, I expect to win 7 or 8 games. In 2010, I expect even more improvement on offense. If given time (both on Auburn’s and Malzahn’s part) I truly think that he can give Auburn an explosive offense.

War Damn Eagle!

by PowerOfDixieland on Dec 29, 2008 7:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Very interesting

Those are interesting stats that you’ve provided above. Perhaps Malzahn will be a great hire, but like I said above I reserve judgment until he can do it regularly against the big boys. It’s not like that list of teams that Tulsa played last year is a crack pot of defensive All-Stars. Your 4 stats courses outnumber me by two so you probably know more about the subject. Good points though. I think the biggest thing with Auburn is just having the right talent to make it happen. The problem with Franklin last year wasn’t the scheme, but the fact that he never had a chance when Tubs didn’t let him bring in his own assistants that believed in his system. It looks like that won’t be an obstacle with Malzahn.

http://hobnailboot.blogspot.com/

by AuditDawg on Dec 29, 2008 7:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Completely agree

Auburn fans need to exercise patience in the coming year or two. We should be better, but to expect a #1 ranked offense would be lunacy.

War Damn Eagle!

by PowerOfDixieland on Dec 29, 2008 9:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well argued, PowerOfDixieland

Nice job. We shall see, of course, but you supported your point well.

The question is whether Gus Malzahn’s tempo can upgrade the Auburn offense without a corresponding downgrade on defense. That may be the trade-off the Plainsmen are asked to make, and, if so, Gene Chizik may have just demonstrated a preference for selling tickets over winning games.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Dec 30, 2008 2:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why be MEAN?

So what you are telling me, is that Tulsa is above average on offense?

Half of _______(insert any quantifiable item here) are above/below ‘average’…

I need a SD, ANOVA, Regression analysis and a pareto, complete with Z scores…

Then we can discuss…

cookin and smilin

by cookin and smilin on Dec 30, 2008 1:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't like how everyone has written him off already

I gotta see what he does after at least one season to join in the Auburn ridicule.

Obviously I hope he fails, but for some reason I think he’s gonna surprise people.

by UgaBulldog14 on Dec 29, 2008 7:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

there is a difference between ‘written off’ and ‘reasonable expectations’ it’s just, in this case, they are easily confused.

by kleph on Dec 29, 2008 11:26 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

FTW

by Kenny483 on Dec 29, 2008 11:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I have reasonable expectations

I don’t think we’ll have the #1 offense in the country, conference, or probably even state next year. But we will be improved, and as long as we don’t regress on the defensive side of the ball, our team will be better. We need to get better talent at the skill positions, but all of a sudden, I’m not so gloomy about 2009.

War Damn Eagle!

by PowerOfDixieland on Dec 29, 2008 2:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

now… lets re-examine this not-so-gloomy prospect of 2009 in light of the pre-season rankings for 2008. from that perspective, being happy with less than the #1 offense in the state and expressing contentment with “improvement” for next year… well, let’s just say i’m a little puzzled why you feel it’s necessary to crow about it on the site of a rival.

by kleph on Dec 29, 2008 10:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

23-30

That was the Tulsa score in their only SEC match-up last year vs. (5-7) Arkansas.

Tulsa only beat one team with a winning record: Rice (9-3)
Tulsa beat several teams that were 1-11 or 2-10.
Tulsa lost its games to the other 2 teams with winning records: E. Carolina and Houston
I am not saying Gus won’t be successful, but to use a legal term on a lawyer’s website- Auburn shoulders the burden of proof on this one.

by fotodog on Dec 29, 2008 8:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs