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Don't Bet On It!: Around the S.E.C.

While it sounds good to say that I went 4-1 in last week’s S.E.C. predictions, last Saturday’s slate of Southeastern Conference games wasn’t any great shakes, so, really, there’s not a lot of pride to be taken in my having improved my record in league prognostications to 60-14.

In other words, don’t let the won-lost ledger fool you, folks: I’m bad at this, so my regular disclaimer continues to hold true. Whatever you do . . . Don’t Bet On It!

O.K., he can bet on it.

Here are this week’s conference contests, whether noteworthy or otherwise, all of which will be played on Saturday, November 22, because only second-class conferences like the M.A.C. and the A.C.C. allow their teams to take the field on a weeknight:

The Citadel at Florida: All that stuff about not betting on it? Forget for the moment that I ever said that; bet the over and take the Gators to cover. Even if the spread is 80, you’d better believe Urban Meyer knows what it is and won’t let up until he gets it. I’m not saying that in order to accuse the Urbster of being an unsportsmanlike classless jerk with deep-seated self-esteem issues who believes at a subconscious level that, if he wins enough football games by a sufficiently large margin, it will somehow earn him the love of the emotionally distant father who never hugged him when he was a child; I just think he’s a cold calculating technocrat trying to capture style points to protect his place at the forefront of the national title debate. I mean, Urban Meyer is all of those bad things I just accused him of being---and, really, even Gator fans don’t doubt that this guy has something funky and unseemly with his internal wiring that was never true of Steve Spurrier even at his fourth-quarter-flea-flickeringest-to-get-to-50 moment---but, when he has an incentive to twist the knife, he’s never going to let it just stick out of your back untouched. Also, I’m pretty sure The Citadel’s mascot is the Bulldog, so they’re probably going to pay for that end zone celebration, too. Tim Tebow will toss his twelfth touchdown pass of the game with five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter as Florida wins big.

Arkansas at Mississippi State: Be warned . . . watching this unsightly travesty of a game will do for your love of college football what watching Paul Giamatti steal back Thomas Haden Church’s wallet in "Sideways" will do for your libido. Some displays of ugliness simply were not meant for human eyes to behold. Of course, if you were given the chance to watch it, you couldn’t not watch it, in the same way you couldn’t look away from an impending train wreck. Between a locomotive hauling medical waste and a passenger carrier filled with circus freaks. In slow motion. While being filmed for a scene in a David Lynch movie. Starring Steve Buscemi. I look for the Bulldogs to hold a 3-2 lead late in the game and be in the process of running out the clock when the M.S.U. quarterback takes the snap, backs up to take as much time as he can before kneeling it out, stumbles over his own feet, and falls backward into the end zone to give the Razorbacks the game-winning safety.

How ugly is the Arkansas-Mississippi State game going to be? It’s going to be uglier than the Tennessee-Vanderbilt game!

Tennessee at Vanderbilt: In a way, this game is completely meaningless. Neither coach’s job security will be affected by the outcome---unless, I guess, you count the fact that the likelihood that Bobby Johnson won’t be back probably would be heightened by a Commodore win---and the result will not impact either team’s eligibility for a bowl game. However, this is nominally a rivalry game, any hope that the Volunteers hadn’t quit on their lame duck coach was dashed when they lost to Wyoming, any fear that the ‘Dores were mailing it in was answered when they won at Kentucky, and the game is being played in Nashville. The way I figure it, there’s no need to fail by a little; if you’re going to collapse, go for utter disaster rather than mere disappointment. The Big Orange go all in on this whole coming up short thing by losing to Vandy.

Ole Miss at Louisiana State: Let’s make one thing very clear from the outset . . . a Rebel win would not constitute an upset in anything other than the most strictly technical sense. There is no particular reason to believe that L.S.U. is a better football team than Mississippi. There is every reason to believe that Houston Nutt---who knows a thing or two about beating the Bayou Bengals, you might recall---will have his team ready to compete in what is almost certainly the S.E.C.’s most underrated rivalry. We already knew Ole Miss had the better-looking co-eds; on Saturday, the Rebels will have the better team, as well.

Take those predictions for what they’re worth---which, trust me, ain’t much---but do yourself a favor and take a little free advice; namely: Don’t Bet On It!

Coming Soon: National Games of Interest.

Go ‘Dawgs!

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Yes . . .

. . . in the most strictly technical sense, which is precisely the sense in which I said it would be an upset, just only in that sense.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Nov 20, 2008 9:47 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Also . . .

. . . if the likelihood of an upset is greater than 50 per cent, is it really an upset? If the team given a greater than 50 per cent chance of winning wins, doesn’t that mean the favorite prevailed?

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Nov 20, 2008 9:49 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Touche

But I think LSU is the favorite in this sense: A poll of average college football fans would probably come up with most saying LSU would win. (Unless you asked Stewart Mandel’s Montanans, and then who knows what happens.)

And according to Vegas (I know, don’t bet on it, and I’m not foolish enough to bet on any sport, but that’s not the point), LSU is between a 3.5- and 5.5-point favorite.

Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.

by cocknfire on Nov 21, 2008 1:26 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

All right, fair enough

I think we’re more or less both saying the same thing; namely, that L.S.U. is the better team on paper, but that Ole Miss has a signature victory and has shown signs of life, whereas the Bayou Bengals haven’t beaten anyone good and have only shown up in one of their big games. Given those factors, a Rebel win would be mildly surprising but not shocking, and it would merely confirm that the better team isn’t necessarily the one with the most talent or the highest ranking.

By the way, at least I didn’t give you a hard time about Georgia struggling with option offenses. I think the ‘Dawgs have done pretty well against them, in fact. After the first 16 minutes of the ’06 Sugar Bowl, the Red and Black outscored West Virginia 35-10. Willie Martinez’s D also gave up 14 points to Urban Meyer’s Gator offense in 2005 (including shutting Florida out for three quarters) and limited U.F. to 14 offensive points in 2006 (when a return of a Georgia fumble proved to be the difference in the game).

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Nov 21, 2008 7:12 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

2005 and 2006 were not really Urban Meyer's Gator Offense

They were makeshift players leftover from the Zook era being forced to run an offense they didn’t fit into. Chris Leak was slower than Christmas and he was trying to run option plays…

by skigator93 on Nov 21, 2008 10:44 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It’s true, laddie – there was actually a lot of talent, I think, but the scheme was a freakish hybrid that more or less worked (with a significant assist from embryonic Tebow and Harvin in 2006.) Leak was a fine QB who suffered from having too many OCs overseeing his development… and was in no way suited to running the option, spread- or otherwise. He was like a smaller Byron Leftwich – when he “took off” you turned on the egg-timer and covered your eyes.

by peachy rex on Nov 21, 2008 4:23 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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