probably wrong to look ahead to '09 BUT

by tankertoad on Nov 18, 2008 8:06 PM EST Comment 11 comments

UGA has Oklahoma State for the opener next year. That, plus ASU, we get a Pac 10 and Big 12 opponent. Although ASU is now seen as a nobody and that game failed to give us the push we were looking for, I don't remember ever playing a Pac 10 and Big 12 team in the regular season ever. That is very cool and good forward thinking.

Ok, let's talk about beating the heck out of tech!

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Don't forget, we also play Tech as well

That’s three different conferences represented in our non-conf. schedule. OK State will be better than the top-10 team they are this year.Ga Tech will probably be contending for an ACC title. And Arizona State cannot be worse than they are this year. If you thought our schedule this year was tough (and it turned out really not to be), next year’s will put it to shame. Let’s hope we’ll be up for it.

by The ArchDawg on Nov 18, 2008 9:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not all tougher

You also lose Alabama and replace them with Arkansas. Plus, LSU and Carolina are at home.

by skigator93 on Nov 18, 2008 10:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Also, this year's schedule should have taught us . . .

. . . that not every team is as good as we think it will be in August, much less the previous November.

At least one team we think will be good won’t be good. We just don’t yet know which one(s).

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Nov 18, 2008 11:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Let's hope it's Florida, eh?

Also, I think we learned that not every team is as bad as we think it will be (viz: Alabama).

by wwcmrd? on Nov 19, 2008 5:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I will be most interested in seeing. . .

how being a lesser ranked team, and more of an underdog, will affect the team’s chemistry, attentiveness, and overall attitude. Our schedule is usually difficult, so who knows what these opponents will bring to the table. These teams could also be affected by injuries, travel, and dealing with the weather in GA depending on game time. I for one, would just like to see our team get their swagger back and have some fun playing football.

by dawgdayafternoon on Nov 19, 2008 12:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

An Irrational Perspective

Since our hopes for next season rest pretty heavily on what kind of momentum we can establish for the off-season by beating Tech and our Cotton/Capital One Bowl opponent, it’s probably too early to be saying anything. If this season has taught me anything as fan, it’s to keep your hopes in check. I don’t think my expectations have any sort of mystical, karmic effect on the outcome of a season, but it certainly plays into how well I enjoy following our team.

So I’ll limit my comments about next season to this: if the mayoral “Quality Season Opener = Successful Season” theorem is indeed accurate, this will be the season to prove it. Kyle tried to fudge it this season by claiming that ASU early in the season made up for playing Georgia State in the opener. . . I certainly don’t blame him, considering how high we all were on that #1 preseason ranking, but I think it’s clear now that the correlation between opening a season with a D-IAA opponent and experiencing a (relatively) disappointing season still holds true.

The corollary is that, based on this theorem in isolation, 2009 could well end as Richt’s best season ever (and considering the quality his previous teams, this can only mean “. . . Ending with a Crystal Football enshrined in Butts-Mehre”). Our opening game against Oklahoma State in Stillwater marks only the second time we have opened away from Athens under Richt and will presumably be only the second time we have opened against a ranked opponent. Depending on how the end of the season shakes out for OkSt we might even be the ‘dog. If Kyle’s theorem is really accurate, it needs to be accurate on September 5, 2009 more than it ever has before.

Of course, the flipside of this is that if the theory doesn’t hold true, this is the perfect opportunity for our [national] title hopes go down the drain in game one. For now, though, I’ll put my money on the Theorem (I mean, Kyle beat that “Record vs. Defending National Champs” drum all through the 2007 off-season, and lo and behold . . .)

by wwcmrd? on Nov 19, 2008 5:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

You're right

It was a stretch on my part, and it didn’t pan out, which just goes to show that these things are pretty much set in stone and there is no fiddling with them.

My son and I had the opportunity to tour Butts-Mehre Heritage Hall with Chappy Hynes in the spring of 2007 and I saw players in the weight room wearing T-shirts that read “Georgia v. Oklahoma State Sept. 1, 2007.” Facing a serious opponent straight out of the gate promotes a level of offseason focus that Georgia Southern simply cannot generate. After the offseason we had this year, the players could use a little focus.

Here, for the record, is the tale of the tape, with the year, the opening opponent, and the end result:

2001 (Arkansas State): 8-4, Music City Bowl, A.P. No. 22
2004 (Georgia Southern): 10-2, Outback Bowl, A.P. No. 7
2006 (Western Kentucky): 9-4, Chick-fil-A Bowl, A.P. No. 23
2008 (Georgia Southern): 9-2, ?

2002 (Clemson): 13-1, S.E.C. champions, Sugar Bowl, A.P. No. 3
2003 (Clemson): 11-3, S.E.C. East co-champions, Capital One Bowl, A.P. No. 7
2005 (Boise State): 10-3, S.E.C. champions, Sugar Bowl, A.P. No. 10
2007 (Oklahoma State): 11-2, S.E.C. East co-champions, Sugar Bowl, A.P. No. 2

Those results speak for themselves. In years in which the Bulldogs open against no one in particular, they have two four-loss seasons with final rankings in the twenties and two seasons in which they were considered national title contenders but did not even win the Eastern Division. In years in which the Bulldogs open against legitimate challengers, they have never finished worse than tied for first place in the S.E.C. East, have attended three conference championship games and three Sugar Bowls, and have finished in the top ten every time, including the top three twice.

The lesson is simple: play someone. Start strong, maintain focus, build momentum. Also, after the 1992, 2000, 2004, and 2008 seasons all failed to produce anything like the anticipated results, it’s high time we reached the obvious conclusion that Georgia Southern is a dadgum jinx and stopped scheduling them forever . . . or, at a minimum, that we only play them in what we know going in will be a rebuilding year.

This is the fourth season they’ve wrecked with their bad mojo, and I, for one, am getting tired of it. Erk’s gone, may he rest in peace; we don’t owe the Eagles anything. Get ‘em off the schedule, now and permanently. We shouldn’t be playing Division I-AA opponents, anyway.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Nov 19, 2008 7:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hey, i said it was probably wrong

Absolutely you cant compare teams now to Sep 5, 2009. I just found Ok St as an opener to be very interesting and very smart – just like T Kyle said – No Georgia Southern!

However, finishing strong doesnt hold anything for next year either, we beat the hold living tar out of Hawaii, and have been flat all year. The off season is a time for change and refocus, and loss of seniors and early drafts restul in a new team. I was just happy to see what will likely be a nice nationally televised game for the start next year.

For Skigator and his “you dont play Alabama next year and add Arkansas” – give me a break. This rotation has been on the books for years, and if alabama is just as good next year, we can beat them in Altanta. And there is no way to tell how Arkansas will be playing. LSU and SC at home? well, after this year’s road stretch – WE DESERVE IT. BUT, keep in mind CMR’s record is outstanding on the road…..home games aren’t always a boon for UGA.

Thanks for the great comments.

by tankertoad on Nov 19, 2008 8:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Easy Tanker

I was not blaming UGA for not scheduling Alabama next season, we all know that the conference opponent rotation is set up already. I was merely pointing out that if you claim your schedule is tougher next season because you play Ok St. instead of Ga Southern, you also have to note tough teams you play this season that fall off the schedule next season. I think it all evens out in the end.

by skigator93 on Nov 19, 2008 10:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I disagree...

2008 Schedule v 2009 Schedule

v GA Southern at Oklahoma St (net is tougher, on the road and BCS Top15 from ’08)
v Central Michigan vs South Carolina (Always a tough game, net tougher)
at Arizona St at Arkansas (this one is probably a wash, but expect Arky to be better)
vs Alabama vs Arizona St (obviously Alabama is a better team this year)
vs Tennessee vs LSU (LSU will be better next year after a disappointing ’08)
vs Vandy at Tenn (Vols in a rebuilding year, still a lot of talent in Ktown)
at LSU at Vandy (tough game on the road)
vs Florida vs Florida (Do I need to even comment on this?)
at UK vs Tenn Tech (nice break between UF and AU)
at Auburn vs Auburn (depends on if there is a coaching change or not)
vs GT vs UK (they should be better next year also)
at GT (Year 2 of the triple option)

Honestly I can’t see where the ’09 schedule is any easier. We trade a IAA opponent for a team that will finish in the Top 15 this year (if not Top 10), we trade Alabama for Arky but Mallet will be eligible next year and that one kid they have at RB this year looks like McFadden lite, ASU is a wash they sucked this year and will suck again next year, LSU at home is good since I am sure that they will be better next year also, Tennessee will probably be down again but there is a ton of talent up there so the right coach could win early, Vandy will be just as good as this year, Florida is Florida (although I hope this years ass whipping will motivate the team to come out and play), Tenn Tech is a nice practice game between Florida and Auburn, then we get Auburn at home (remember the road team generally does better in this series), Kentucky at home (hopefully we can stop a running QB next year) and then the Nerds in Year 2 of the triple option. 2009 is looking just as hard as ’08 did last year.

by RocketDawg on Nov 19, 2008 2:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Eh

Although I disagree on a cognitive level and desperately hope you’re wrong on a gut level — tough schedule didn’t work out too hot for us this year — obviously it’s all speculation at this point, so your guess is as good as mine. That said, I have to take issue with “Vandy will be just as good as this year.”

Even if Bobby Johnson does decide to stick around, the chances of him fielding a bowl eligible squad for the second year in a row are infinitesimal. The last time they fielded back to back > .500 teams was the 1970s. Of course, that doesn’t mean we won’t play down to their level, as we did in 2006, 2007 and arguably 2008. But if they do play us close, it will be because we’re playing badly, not that they’re “good.”

Come to think of it, I think that’s the key issue here — most of the close or closer-than-they-should have been games this year were not actually against teams who were that great. From a pure talent standpoint, we match up with everyone on our schedule save maybe Florida. The fact that we’ve lost two, won some nail-biters that should not have been such (SCar, UK, Aub) and let games against lesser foes drag on longer than they had any right to (UT, Vandy) is not because they were “better” teams on paper but because for one reason or another our team was ill-prepared or failed to execute. As much as it pains me to say it, coaching has been the margin this season — yeah, we might still have dropped games to Bama and Florida, but they should have been contests, not blowouts, and although even the best teams play close games, the five games listed above should not all have fallen into that category.

I think over the last season and a half we’ve witnessed all that coaching can do — it can take a merely good team and make them title contenders (Cocktail Party through Sugar Bowl, 2007) or it can take title contenders and make them merely good (2008). More than schedule, which our coaches and players cannot control, I think it is coaching that will make the difference — which should provide at least a little comfort since that is firmly in the hands of the Richt administration. I think he’s built enough credit with this program for us to trust him to correct in 2009 whatever mistakes they’ve been making this year.

Oh, and barring some sort of freak accident (knock on wood), there is no way we lose so many key players to injury in a single season. That’s got to make a difference somewhere.

by wwcmrd? on Nov 19, 2008 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs