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Week Nine BlogPoll Ballot Submitted

We’re supposed to be at the point at which matters are starting to shake themselves out, so why is it becoming so much more challenging to figure out which teams belong in the top 25? Why am I starting to think an Outback Bowl meeting between Louisiana State and Ohio State would be a much better game than last year’s national title tilt? What are we to make of the Big 12 now that the top teams in that league are starting to pick each other off like snipers in the Texas Tower?

After much wailing, gnashing of teeth, and sitting around waiting for Tulsa to finish its Sunday night game, I cast the following BlogPoll ballot:

RankTeamDelta
1 Texas --
2 Alabama --
3 Southern Cal 2
4 Oklahoma 2
5 Georgia 3
6 Florida 3
7 Texas Tech 6
8 Penn State 5
9 Utah 1
10 Oklahoma State 6
11 Boise State 7
12 North Carolina 14
13 Ohio State 6
14 Connecticut 12
15 Maryland 11
16 TCU 4
17 Florida State 4
18 Minnesota 2
19 Ball State --
20 California 6
21 LSU 4
22 West Virginia 4
23 Brigham Young 3
24 Air Force 2
25 Oregon 1

Dropped Out: Pittsburgh (#11), Georgia Tech (#14), Boston College (#15), South Florida (#16), Northwestern (#22), Cincinnati (#23), Tulsa (#24), Virginia Tech (#25).

Even after their narrow escape at home against Oklahoma State (7-1), the ‘Horns continue to hold down the top spot in the rankings. Texas (8-0) has beaten five teams with records at or above .500 in the last six games and none of the Burnt Orange’s victims was either a Division I-AA opponent or a club with worse than a 3-5 ledger. The Longhorns’ four victories over squads with winning records include three straight quality or semi-quality wins over Oklahoma (7-1), Missouri (6-2), and the Cowboys, only one of which wound up being close.

Although the resume compiled by Alabama (8-0) is weakened by such suspect competition as Clemson (3-4), Arkansas (3-5), and Tennessee (3-5), the Crimson Tide are undefeated, have not faced a Division I-AA opponent, earned only one of their victories over a club with more than five losses, and possess an increasingly impressive quality win at Georgia (7-1).

Speaking of increasingly impressive quality wins, Southern California (6-1) certainly has a couple, as the Trojans’ convincing triumphs over Ohio State (7-2) and Virginia (5-3) appear meaningful, as does U.S.C.’s win over Oregon (6-2). The only loss sustained by the Men of Troy came on the road in a close contest against a team that is better than its 4-3 record, given the quality of the competition that dealt Oregon State two of the Beavers’ three losses.

I’m not entirely convinced that O.U. deserves the No. 4 spot more than the next three teams in the poll, but the Sooners placed this highly because their loss to the Longhorns was competitive, their seven wins generally were not, and their victory over Texas Christian (8-1) has heft. Oklahoma is a shaky top five team, though, because Bob Stoops’s troops also claim wins of sinking value over Cincinnati (5-2) and Kansas (5-3). If the Sooners hadn’t pulled away like they did at Kansas State (4-4) on Saturday, they wouldn’t be in this spot right now.

Oklahoma, you are on notice!

The Bulldogs narrowly edged out Florida (6-1) for the No. 5 spot because the Red and Black’s two best victories are superior to the Saurians’ top two. Georgia hung 52 points on L.S.U. (5-2) in Baton Rouge while the Gators hung 51 points on the Bayou Bengals at home, and the ‘Dawgs went on the road and defeated South Carolina (5-3). The Gamecocks went on the road and defeated Kentucky (5-3), a team Florida beat at home. Most important of all, Georgia lost to undefeated Alabama and the Orange and Blue fell to Ole Miss (4-4). Obviously, we’ll know a week from now where these two teams stand relative to one another.

I can’t help feeling that I’ve overrated Texas Tech (8-0) by ranking the Red Raiders seventh, but Mike Leach’s squad went on the road and put a serious whipping on the Jayhawks. My gut instinct is that this ought to work more to K.U.’s detriment than to Texas Tech’s benefit, but, for now, the Red Raiders earn points for adding victories over four teams at or above .500 to a resume previously composed of triumphs over a pair of Division I-AA clubs and one-win Southern Methodist.

This next one, I know, requires some explanation: Penn State (9-0) claimed its biggest win of the season last Saturday night, yet the Nittany Lions dropped to No. 8 on my ballot. This is an oddity, I admit, but it comes as a result of a recent reassessment of P.S.U.’s resume.

Calm down, Joe! It’s supposed to be a Happy Valley!

This is what Penn State has done this season:

  • Beaten a Division I-AA opponent.


  • Beaten three Division I-A teams with six or more losses, including a conference opponent sporting a 2-6 record and a non-conference rival with only one victory to its credit in two of its four road outings.


  • Beaten two Division I-A teams with winning records in Oregon State and a twice-beaten conference opponent whom they defeated in a close game on the road.


  • Beaten a conference opponent with a 4-4 record and another foe with a 3-5 ledger.

Overall, that doesn’t sound too bad, so why isn’t Penn State ranked higher? The answer is simple . . . the accomplishments I just described have been matched by Utah (8-0).

Admittedly, there are differences of consequence between the two. There are, of course, valid distinctions to be drawn between beating Purdue (2-6) in West Lafayette and beating Wyoming (2-6) in Laramie, between winning over Colorado State (4-4) and winning over Illinois (4-4), between beating Ohio State by seven points in Columbus and beating Air Force (6-2) by seven points in Colorado Springs, between defeating the Beavers by 31 points and beating them by three points, between beating Michigan (2-6) by 29 points in State College and beating Michigan by two points in Ann Arbor, and even between beating Syracuse (1-6) in the Carrier Dome and beating Utah State (1-7) in Logan or, arguably, beating Temple (3-5) and beating U.N.L.V. (3-5).

Those, though, are differences of degree, not differences in kind, which is why I felt compelled to rank Penn State and Utah near one another, even though the Nittany Lions clearly deserve the higher placement. However, Joe Paterno’s crew has beaten only one conference opponent with a record better than .500 and that lone standout was Ohio State, a team that has not acquitted itself well in big games in recent seasons.

The best team in the best non-B.C.S. conference deserved some consideration, so, since I couldn’t conscientiously rank Penn State second or third without also ranking Utah fourth or fifth, I put them both where they seemed to belong; namely, in the top ten, but not the top five.

F.Y.I., according to the GBE strength of schedule ratings through October 18, Utah had played the 107th toughest schedule and Penn State had played the 113th toughest schedule, so maybe I’m not so crazy, after all!

The Pokes round out the top ten after a textbook quality loss---by a narrow margin on the road against an undefeated top-ranked team---on the strength of their win at Mizzou, although, once again, I get the troubling feeling that Saurian Sagacity was right: early-season tussles with tomato cans have bolstered the non-conference records of every team in the upper echelon of the Big 12 and led to the overrating of many of the teams in the league.

If I went through that much angst over the top ten, just imagine how much I have thrown my hands up over the next several squads. Boise State (7-0) is undefeated and possesses a quasi-quality win over the Ducks in Eugene, North Carolina (6-2) has wins over four Division I-A teams with winning records (including two who are legitimate out-of-conference competitors) and a pair of close losses to a couple of 5-3 teams, the Buckeyes had decent wins over Minnesota (7-1) and Michigan State (7-2) to slow their descent after a pair of losses to teams with a combined record of 15-1, Connecticut (6-2) partially overcame a loss to Rutgers (3-5) with solid victories over Virginia and Cincinnati, and Maryland (6-2) benefited from the attrition by riding a valuable win over California (5-2) to a spot in the top 15 in spite of a loss at Middle Tennessee State (2-6).

The Horned Frogs were harmed by the fact that half of their eight wins came against Division I-AA competition or Division I-A teams with six or more losses, but a convincing win over Brigham Young (7-1) helped T.C.U. in the rankings. Florida State (6-1) has proven something in wins over Miami (Florida) and Virginia Tech, both of whom are 5-3, and the Golden Gophers managed to get as much mileage as a team can get out of a 7-1 ledger highlighted by close wins over Illinois and Northern Illinois.

Why was Minnesota able to make it all the way up to No. 18? Well, what other options were there? Ball State held onto a spot in the top 20 with an 8-0 record showcasing a win over Navy (5-3) and overinflated by the presence of wins over Division I-AA Northeastern and four teams with six or more setbacks on the right-hand side of their respective records. What can I say? It’s a down year across the board, really.

Nevertheless, the good people of Minneapolis continue to celebrate the Golden Gophers’ remarkable turnaround.

The Golden Bears continue to get traction from their season-opening win over the Spartans, plus the fact that Cal’s road losses to the Terrapins and the Wildcats are looking better. Accordingly, Jeff Tedford’s club swiped the last spot in the top 20 from L.S.U., as the Bayou Bengals have only a pair of close road wins over mediocre conference opponents to balance out their embarrassing losses to Florida and Georgia.

After that, you practically could pull teams out of a hat. West Virginia (5-2) has yet to beat a team with a winning record, but three of the Mountaineers’ Division I-A triumphs came against teams with five or fewer losses, which gave W.V.U. the edge over a B.Y.U. club that was hammered by T.C.U. and has claimed half of its six wins over Division I-A competition against teams with six or more setbacks.

The Falcons actually earned some respect by winning four road games and suffering both of A.F.A.’s losses in close games against teams with winning records. Finally, I held off on designating a No. 25 team for a while there on Sunday night, but, somewhere in the second quarter, I realized that there really was nothing the Golden Hurricane could do to U.C.F. to impress me enough to rank Tulsa ahead of Oregon, which may not have beaten a team with a winning record and may even have claimed four of its six victories over teams with six or more losses, but which has only been beaten by two teams with a combined record of 13-1. Beating no one in a B.C.S. conference counts for more than beating no one in the worst conference not named the Sun Belt.

Clearly, any ascription of "style points" to the teams ranked in my top 25 was metaphorical rather than literal.

I also gave consideration to ranking Michigan State and Missouri, but I will need to see more from the Spartans and the Tigers before I am willing to return them to the top 25. Will it make you feel better if I say I considered ranking Tulsa? Fine; I considered ranking Tulsa. I considered a slate of road games consisting of U.A.B. (2-6), S.M.U. (1-8), and North Texas (0-8) and there is where the consideration stopped well before I knew whether the Golden Hurricane would beat the Golden Knights in the game King Midas forgot.

I watched the Ohio (Ohio)-Temple game on Tuesday, the Auburn-West Virginia game on Thursday, and the Boise State-San Jose State game on Friday. On Saturday, I watched most of the Kansas-Texas Tech game, the entirety of the Georgia-Louisiana State game, most of the Alabama-Tennessee game, and the last five minutes of the Ohio State-Penn State game. On Sunday night, purely out of a sense of obligation, I watched the Central Florida-Tulsa game. The BlogPoll voter’s lot in life is one of loneliness and duty, my friends. We’re like the dorky version of the Marines.

In all seriousness, though, that ballot made perfect sense to me when I compiled it, but, the longer I look at it, the more convinced I become that every team ranked below No. 1 is incorrectly placed. I have until Wednesday morning to change my ballot, so your influence could be meaningful and your feedback, while always welcome, is earnestly sought in this instance. I’m pretty sure there’s some wacky stuff going on right there, so your input is solicited and appreciated.

Go ‘Dawgs!

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Interesting thoughts on the Big 12 OOC schedules

No conference is immune and there are a couple of posts out there, written by smarter more patient people than me, that take a look at how current OOC scheduling affects the polls, regardless of conference.

I also somewhat agree with this quick synopsis here though I would also say that this “scenario” is not exclusive to the SEC. All conferences schedule their fair share of tomato cans.

I also think that conference wins matter. Every conference has bad teams but because of familiarity even the bad teams can sneak up on a team…see USC v. Oregon St. and UF v. Ole Miss. so you have to win those games and no team regardless of conference or strength should be penalized for conference wins regardless of how close they may or may not be.

The fact that Pac-10 has the most aggressive and ambitious OOC schedule doesn’t get them any style points in the area of public opinion. In the SEC UGA, Tenn. and even LSU should be commended for making attempts in recent years for going out on the road to play tough OOC games. In the Big 10 Mich. St., Ohio State come to mind in that category. I am probably missing some teams but I think you see where I am headed. I would completely agree with your take on Penn St. and it would not surprise me if there are 3 undefeated teams at the end of all this that they did not get to the BCS title game as Chris Dufresne from the L.A. Times points out

The Nittany Lions are three wins — against Iowa, Indiana and Michigan State — from finishing 12-0.

Whether that delivers Penn State to the Bowl Championship Series title game Jan. 8 in South Florida depends on what happens on the field and what gurgles in six computers.

Penn State is No. 3 in the BCS, and probably needs a loss from No. 1 Texas and No. 2 Alabama to get in, if you believe the undefeated champions of this year’s best two conferences, the Big 12 and the Southeastern, deserve to settle it on the field.

Of course, as Dufresne goes on to say the human element might throw a whole wrench into it.

Which in turn would say to me that regardless of record, if you’re close and if everyone is pulling for you, you have as much of a chance of getting to the title game as the other guy who went out and simply won regardless of popularity.

A playoff is NOT the answer but the system needs to be overhauled so that wins over inferior OOC teams don’t carry as much weight as in conference wins.

Or as I heard in a movie many years ago…“people aren’t perfect and people make machines so why should machines be perfect?” That can also be said about the information fed into the machines…

End of Line… :-)

by Paragon SC on Oct 27, 2008 8:36 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Corvallis is worth 37 points?

Penn State beats Oregon State by 31.
USC loses to Oregon State by 6.

Sometimes, I think you do this just to get shotgunned.

Oops Pow Surprise: "I'm stuck writing at the Titty Barn."

by Hawkeye State on Oct 27, 2008 9:15 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fair point . . .

. . . but it cuts both ways: U.S.C. obliterated Ohio State in Los Angeles, while Penn State narrowly escaped from the Horseshoe. How much is Columbus worth?

I will grant your basic premise; I may have focused too much on Utah’s and Penn State’s respective wins over Oregon State and not enough on Southern California’s loss to the Beavers. That is an argument well worth considering.

This, though, still gives me pause: through October 25, the updated GBE strength of schedule ratings rank the Trojans’ schedule 22nd, the Nittany Lions’ schedule 96th, and the Utes’ schedule 111th.

Is winning all but one game against one of the 25 toughest slates in college football more or less impressive than going undefeated against what is barely one of the 100 toughest schedules in the country? Is Penn State’s unblemished record really that different from Utah’s?

I’m not advocating, I’m asking. Those are the considerations that keep me from ranking the Lions higher than I have them. You have made one solid point already, and I am prepared to have my mind changed. Persuade me that I’m wrong about the strength of schedule issue, and I’ll move Penn State back up a few rungs.

Thanks for taking the time to comment, Hawkeye State. I genuinely appreciate your input and I look forward to your reply.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Oct 27, 2008 10:20 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My initial response was brief

Let’s get mathy.

You rely on GBE, which is fine. Except that it’s not.

The formula for computing the GBE Ratings is x/y, defined as follows:

where x=w/(w+l) (win score, computed as follows:)

    * w=(home wins*.95)+(road wins*1.05)+(neutral wins*1)
    * l=(home losses*1.05)+(road losses*.95)+(neutral losses*1)

and where y=(2/o)+(1/q) (strength of schedule, computed as follows:)

    * o=opponents’ win %
    * q=opponents’ opponents’ win %

This gives more weight to the strength of the teams you have played, but tempers it with the records of the teams that they have played. This way a team cannot benefit from beating up on teams that have fattened their records by beating up 0-11 teams all year long as much as they can by winning against teams that have played teams with better records.

For the purposes of these ratings, those games do not count towards a team’s strength of schedule. As these ratings only cover NCAA Division 1-A teams, games played outside of this division are recorded only as wins and losses – no strength of schedule points are added or subtracted at present.

There will never be a perfect model for mathematically calculating ratings. This is no different. As an example, let’s take a look at the one-loss team we differ most on: Florida. The GBE model drastically overestimates Florida’s schedule in a number of ways. First, the simple assumption that “home loss = 1.05, road loss = .95” doesn’t take into account just how bad that loss is. We can differ on how good Ole Miss is, but losing to them at home should not be worth the same amount as, say, losing to Alabama at home (or losing to Appalachian State at home). Second, the RPI-ish SOS calculation isn’t as effective in football, where sample sizes are small. Teams are actually punished for scheduling other teams with difficult schedules. For instance, you would get more points for scheduling 8-0 Tulsa than for scheduling 6-2 Missouri (see what I did there? You hate Tulsa!) and we can agree that’s absurd.

For instance, Florida gets extra points for beating 5-3 UK, whose best win is @Louisville and second-best is Arkansas by 1 at home. Florida gets extra points for beating Hawaii, who is 4-4 despite having been blown out by every legitimate team they’ve played (I know they beat Fresno; I stand by my earlier statement). That’s not even mentioning the Paper Tigers of Louisiana State (5-2, killed to death by Florida and UGa, second-best win might well be Appalachian State) or that loss to Ole Miss (4-4, with no legitimately above-average win aside from Florida and losses to Vandy, South Carolina, and Wake). Because the SOS calculation doesn’t extend infinitely (which, admittedly, it can’t without NASA intervention), it’s imperfect. Not to sound like an AP voter here, but I know what I’ve seen, and Florida hasn’t played anyone yet.

But that’s not even the point, TKK. You put Texas Tech at #8, one spot ahead of PSU, despite the fact they have the #113 SOS under your preferred metric (behind both PSU and Utah) and nothing even approaching a win the quality of PSU at the ‘Shoe, but there’s nary a word about why. You say “PSU is like Utah,” then immediately assume that means Penn State should drop, and not that Utah should rise. You have preconceived notions of where you want your poll to go (generally toward SEC and USC, sometimes for good reason; I have USC, Georgia, and Oklahoma as the 3 best 1-loss teams), and then write 3000 words to attempt to justify it as an exercise in resume ranking. That’s what is infuriating about this poll and the others that get mercilessly pummeled by Cook.

Your move, sir.

Oops Pow Surprise: "I'm stuck writing at the Titty Barn."

by Hawkeye State on Oct 27, 2008 11:21 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   1 recs

Once again, I thank you for taking the time

You certainly have made some reasonable points and given me something about which to think, for which I am grateful.

Do you honestly believe that last long paragraph is fair, though? I have very few preconceived notions of where I want my poll to go; each week, I go through every potentially rankable team’s entire resume and update the won-lost records of each team those teams have played. I then sort them by records, ranking the 8-0 teams relative to other 8-0 teams, the 7-1 teams relative to other 7-1 teams, etc., after which I put the whole thing together. I then post my ballot, offer my explanations, listen to constructive criticisms, and make changes.

I’m sorry you find it “infuriating,” but I take exception to your claim (which echoes Brian’s earlier claim) that I “write 3000 words to attempt to justify it as an exercise in resume ranking.” If you or he wanted it shorter, I could simply regurgitate the A.P. poll and say, “If it’s good enough for the sportswriters, it’s good enough for me!” Nothing would be shorter (or lazier) than that.

I put my ballot out there, tell you why I did what I did, ask for feedback, receive it, acknowledge good points, and ask for additional input to address my lingering areas of concern. You have done that, for which I am grateful. Based upon my previous conduct, however, you have every reason to believe I will consider your points, admit where I am wrong (which is part of Brian’s original description of the back-and-forth of BlogPoll voting), and make changes.

My ballot deserves constructive criticisms, as does everyone’s. I take those to heart, as evidenced by the fact that my initial response to you expressed gratitude and a willingness to listen. The combative tone of the last full paragraph was utterly unwarranted and unappreciated, though. Frankly, I’ve earned better than that, and the fact that Brian oftentimes expresses his contrary judgments in unnecessarily harsh language doesn’t justify your taking the same approach.

I’ll give your points the serious consideration they deserve and I thank you again for providing a substantive response. I would most appreciative if, in the future, you could refrain from making assumptions about my assumptions and leveling accusations for which you have no evidence beyond your own preconceptions.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Oct 27, 2008 1:12 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

OK, I'll agree to that

The last paragraph might have been a bit much. I should stick to the facts, rather than resorting to half-assed dime store psychology. As an occasional recipient of the Cook treatment, I know the feeling. My apologies.

I think you can make an argument for Georgia ahead of Penn State. I think you can make an argument for Oklahoma ahead of Penn State. I even think you can make an argument for Oklahoma State ahead of Penn State. I don’t think that argument exists for Southern Cal, when there is such a discrepancy between the respective teams’ performances against Oregon State, or Florida, whose lone loss is disqualifying until they prove otherwise. I’d hope you take a look at SC, Florida, and Texas Tech before Wednesday. And if Penn State must stay near Utah (though I think there are flaws in comparing simply the number of 1-AA opponents, sub-.500 opponents, and conference record; you hint at them in your post), then consider moving them up in tandem.

Also, one other quibble: I’m not certain how a win @ Oregon is “meaningful” for USC and “quasi-quality” for Boise. If those are one in the same, great. If not, I hope you’re not knocking the little guy just because he’s the little guy.

OK, keep up the good work TKK, and if you want to take pot shots at my ballot, it will be up this afternoon.

Oops Pow Surprise: "I'm stuck writing at the Titty Barn."

by Hawkeye State on Oct 27, 2008 3:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

USC's win against Oregon was at Home...

USC should not be ranked ahead of PSU because of their one loss, regardless of whom it was against.

Not sure what mean by this here…

Also, one other quibble: I’m not certain how a win @ Oregon is "meaningful" for USC and "quasi-quality" for Boise.

Guess I am misunderstanding you in the grander scheme, can you explain it.

by Paragon SC on Oct 27, 2008 3:48 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ah, that's my old fart memory coming back

I forgot SC played Oregon at the Coliseum. In any case, my point was merely that TKK was citing Southern Cal’s win against Oregon as “meaningful” while saying Boise’s win at Eugene was “quasi-quality.” Maybe it was margin of victory (as cocknfire so effectively points out below). If so, that’s a completely viable argument for why SC’s win was worth more. I was just pointing out the difference; I happen to think Oregon is “quasi-quality” for both teams.

Oops Pow Surprise: "I'm stuck writing at the Titty Barn."

by Hawkeye State on Oct 27, 2008 6:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thanks, Hawkeye State

You’ve made some fine points, which I will consider carefully in revising my ballot before Wednesday morning.

I hadn’t realized how I was treating different teams’ games against the same opponents (Oregon and Oregon State, in particular) so differently. That’s a point well worth further reflection.

Much obliged.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Oct 27, 2008 4:35 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

On wins vs. Oregon

Boise State, in Eugene: 37-32
Southern Cal, in LA: 44-10

So, to paraphrase your own words, Hawkeye State, Eugene is worth 29 points?

But, Kyle, I saw a good deal of the SC-Arizona game Saturday, and whereas I always thought jealousy motivated the Pac-10 fans who carped about the entire conference and refs being out to protect the Trojans … well, I’m not so sure now. And Mike Stoops’ lack of a rudimentary understanding of math also helped.

In any case, perhaps I’m reading too much into one game, but I docked SC a few points on that game alone. I realize you and I often differ on SC, but I do think you need to give them another look.

Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.

by cocknfire on Oct 27, 2008 4:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What, too soon?

I know it was a tragedy, but the essence of comedy is despair and it was almost 40 years ago.

The last time Georgia played Kent State (circa 1999, if memory serves), the postgame joke made by my “Dawg Show” co-host, Travis Rice, was: “The final box score for the game was x yards of total offense, y first downs, and four dead.” Tasteless? Maybe, but it was about an event from three decades earlier. It’s not like he made that joke in 1972.

A Hurricane Katrina joke would be offensive, but isn’t there a point at which enough years have passed that we can make a joke even about something sad?

If I’m wrong, I apologize.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Oct 27, 2008 1:00 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Much obliged

Edgy isn’t really my forte, so I’m glad to know I didn’t stray too far over the line.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Oct 27, 2008 8:26 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What a joke

Anyone notice LSWho’s writer kept OSU and OU ahead of us?

Sour grapes that we beat their ass?

http://www.andthevalleyshook.com/

by AppleCub on Oct 27, 2008 10:59 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No, I'm not

I should have qualified that comparison more than I did.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Oct 27, 2008 1:00 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Southern Cal hasn't played a 1-AA

but why are they ranked 3rd, with their best win at home against Ohio State, AND a loss to Oregon State; teams that Penn State beat on the road AND outright, respectively; yet, they’re ranked eighth?

And what about Oklahoma, who suffers from the same criteria that Penn State’s schedule has yet they have a loss?

I believe Southern Cal and Oklahoma should be ranked highly (USC is ranked too high at third, though)—but Penn State should be above them both.

by The ArchDawg on Oct 27, 2008 11:25 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

By same criterion for Oklahoma, to clarify,

I mean a win over a 1-AA school (Chatanooga), wins against conference foes that are 4-4 (Kansas State) and 3-5 (Baylor), and an OOC foe that is winless (Washington). TCU certainly has heft, and the Cincinnatti win isn’t too bad, but behind those two wins is that really a better resume than Penn State’s as of right now?

by The ArchDawg on Oct 27, 2008 11:40 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Quality wins vs quality losses

First off, lets all just agree this season is an absolute mess. We might be better off doing a top 15 and ending it there. I don’t know there are 25 teams that deserve to be ranked.

With that out of the way, my question for Kyle is what is weighted more-a quality win or a quality loss? Lets say you have two 7-1 teams. Will the determining factor be who is the best team that they beat or who beat them? If resume ranking, I guess that both should have influence. I just want to see how some teams stack up against each other. Texas and Bama are beyond reproach until further notice. I would like to look at the best wins and the loss of the top one loss teams, along with Texas Tech and Penn State. I’m using Kyle’s rankings here, since its his ballot. The best wins are in order, best to worst, starting with the ballot for ranked squads and my opinion for the unranked. In no particular order…

Oklahoma State
Best wins-Mizzou, Troy, Houston
Loss-#1 Texas

UGA
Best wins-#21 LSU, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
Loss-#2 Alabama

Oklahoma
Best wins-#16 TCU, Kansas, Cincy
Loss-#1 Texas

USC
Best wins-#13 Ohio State, #25 Oregon, Virginia
Loss-Oregon State

Florida
Best Wins-# 21 LSU, Miami, Kentucky
Loss-Ole Miss

Texas Tech
Best wins-Kansas, Nevada, Nebraska
Loss-None

Penn State
Best wins-#13 Ohio State, Oregon State, Wisconsin
Loss-None

So what does this tell us? If you want to rank by best wins, I think it looks like this…

  1. USC-two ranked victims
  2. Penn State-Next highest ranked victory
  3. Oklahoma-next highest, and I don’t feel that Kansas/Cincy is that much more impressive than Oregon State/Wisconsin to over take the Ohio State/TCU comparison
  4. UGA-Same best win as UF, and USC/Vandy is better than Miami/Kentucky
  5. UF
  6. Oklahoma State-no ranked wins yet, but I still think that a Mizzou pelt trumps Kansas.
  7. Texas Tech-No ranked wins yet, but the next few weeks will tell us all we need to know. Both OKST and Texas Tech really hurt here, though.

Now for the losses

  1. Penn State
    #3A Texas Tech-neither have a loss, for which they deserve some credit, schedules aside
  2. Oklahoma State
    #5A Oklahoma-if you’re gonna lose, it may as well be to the best team in the country…
  3. UGA-…or at least to the second best
  4. USC-hard to justify for a team that was supposed to be so good
  5. UF-even harder to justify

Since you can’t just ignore either wins or losses, lets take an average

  1. Penn State
  2. Oklahoma
    #4A USC
  3. Texas Tech
  4. UGA
    #7A Oklahoma State
  5. UF

Ummm…something about that just doesnt look right. Penn State and Texas Tech do deserve credit for being undefeated so far. After all, if it were easy to win all your games, regardless of schedule, more teams would do it. However, an undefeated record alone does not make you an elite team (Exhibit A-Hawaii, 2007. There is no need for an example B.) Either of those two in the BCSCG would upset me from a football standpoint, although the Raiders being there would be fun. The more Mike Leach I have in my life, the better. Something about USC that high also feels off, particularly after the Arizona game. Again, the realization that they still have a shot at the BCSCG was a sobering and upsetting one. I can’t argue with where both the Oklahoma schools ended up, particularly Oklahoma State. They played a very good game against Texas, better even than the one Oklahoma played. I learned more about them in that loss than in the win against Mizzou. Whether I agree with them or not, thats what the numbers say. Just for fun, though, lets throw in strength of schedule, taken from Sagarin

USC
UGA
UF
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Penn State
Texas Tech

So, when you factor that in with the best win/best loss results, you get this

  1. Penn State
    #3A USC
  2. Oklahoma
  3. UGA
  4. Texas Tech
  5. Oklahoma State
  6. Florida

So strength of schedule helped USC and UGA at the expense of Oklahoma and Texas Tech, respectively. Hmmm. I didn’t think that SOS would help USC, but what do I know? I hate that I am kind of turning into a computer with these rankings, but really, if you are trying to take out preseason expectations, inertia, and gut feeling, a formula really is the way to go. Therefore, I hereby submit the following resume ranking for the top nine spots in the Dawg Sports blogpoll ballot

  1. Texas
  2. Alabama
  3. USC
  4. Penn State
  5. Oklahoma
  6. UGA
  7. Texas Tech
  8. Oklahoma State
  9. Florida

Of course, after all fairly unbiased calculating, I flipped a coin to determine who gets the three spot. Some things just can’t be escaped.

by SG Standard on Oct 27, 2008 5:31 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hmmm

Some of the formatting got a little out of whack there. Sorry. I hope the point still comes across.

by SG Standard on Oct 27, 2008 5:34 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Margins

That’s the hardest part of a resume ranking — do you count margins? And then, how do you? Not sure how (if at all) this would affect what you’re doing here, but…

Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.

by cocknfire on Oct 27, 2008 6:06 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That's a valid question . . .

. . . and a hard one to answer.

It’s particularly difficult because margins of victory often don’t tell anywhere near the whole story. A prime example: Alabama beat Georgia by 11 points and Texas beat Oklahoma by 10 points. However, the Longhorns were trailing the Sooners in the third quarter and the Crimson Tide were up by 31 at the half.

The fact that ’Bama beat Georgia by one point more than Texas beat Oklahoma by suggests that the Tide and ’Horns performed about equally as well against their respective toughest opponents, but that simply is not the case. Even leaving aside the fact that Alabama beat Georgia in Athens and Texas beat Oklahoma at a neutral site, the way the Tide won was much more impressive than the way the Longhorns won.

Both victories are impressive and important, obviously, but a comparison of the final scores would make them look far more equivalent than they really were.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Oct 27, 2008 7:50 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I did not

I tried not to look at the final score, even when teams had opponents in common. I just looked at the records and rankings. However, as this was my first attempt at resume ranking in any way, I am far from an authority on the subject.

The more I look at the results I came up with, the angrier I get. The cognitive dissonance is almost too much for me to bear. I mean, UGA and USC are both one loss teams, and UGA lost to Bama! How is losing to Oregon State in the same week rewarded in such a way? It makes no sense!!! But I came up with that formula, attempting to take as much bias out of it as I could, and that was what came out. Whatever. It will all shake out in the end.

by SG Standard on Oct 27, 2008 7:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I know what you mean

That’s the frustration I deal with every week.

Also—-and this part really bothers me, because I regularly catch myself going against my own principles when assessing the value of losses—-I am a staunch advocate of tougher out-of-conference scheduling, but I often inadvertently penalize teams for doing the very thing I want them to do.

Oregon State is 4-3. Two of the Beavers’ three losses were at Penn State and at Utah. The Nittany Lions and the Beavers are undefeated. O.S.’s other loss was on the road in a season-opening conference tilt with Stanford (4-4) in a fairly close game. The Beavs also beat U.S.C.

Ole Miss is 4-4. One of the Rebels’ losses was at Wake Forest by two points. Mississippi’s other losses were by six, seven, and four points against Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Alabama, respectively. The Rebs also beat Florida on the road.

Oregon State and Ole Miss aren’t great teams by any means, but they’re better teams than their records indicate. If either of them had played, say, B.Y.U.‘s schedule, would they have records at least as good as B.Y.U.’s? I believe they would. If B.Y.U. had played Oregon State’s or Ole Miss’s schedule, would the Cougars have a record better than the Beavers’ or the Rebels’? I believe they would not.

I am a resume ranker when it comes to poll voting for the same reason I am a New Critic when it comes to literary interpretation and a strict constructionist when it comes to legal interpretation; all three approaches attempt to inject the principled in place of the personal, so that there at least are criteria by which to evaluate whether I have done what I did well or poorly.

If, rather than having just cause, my argument is, “Just ’cause,” then the argument boils down to the fact that I see it my way because I’m me and you see it your way because you’re you, so who can say who is right and who is wrong? There ain’t no good guys, there ain’t no bad guys, there’s only you and me and we just disagree.

I try to establish and apply criteria so that y’all can say—-as y’all do, and as y’all do well, and as I am grateful to all y’all for doing—-“Wait a minute, Kyle . . . here’s where you’re contradicting yourself.” Power polling, to my way of thinking, merely is an expression of gut instinct: I think Team A would beat Team B, so I’m ranking Team A ahead of Team B.

The problem with that is that history tells a different tale. How certain were we that Florida State would beat Tennessee in 1998 and Oklahoma in 2000, or that Miami (Florida) would beat Ohio State in 2002, or that U.S.C. would beat Texas in 2005, or that Ohio State would beat Florida in 2006? We’re wrong about that sort of thing a good deal of the time, so gut instinct is no way to go, being based, ultimately, on nothing but gut instinct.

The problem with resume ranking cuts the other way. There is, literally, too much information. Matt Hinton writes a college football weblog for a living, and he’s as smart and nuanced about this sort of thing as anyone, and even he admits to not knowing what he’s talking about half the time.

Many of you, I know, favor a Division I-A playoff, and, for those who do, that is the solution that ends this problem. I have no intention of reigniting that debate, but I believe it suffices to say that a new (perhaps preferable, but still real) set of problems accompanies seeding from a field of 120 teams with little overlap between conferences (as opposed to the seeding for the N.F.L. playoffs). Ultimately, the issue of how to compare teams must be addressed, in a poll system or in a playoff system.

It’s a challenge, that’s for sure. William Faulkner used to say that writing a novel was like nailing together a henhouse in a hurricane. I’m starting to think that’s true of compiling a college football top 25 in late October, as well . . . and I am well short of crafting a ballot in a league with The Sound and the Fury, or even The Unvanquished.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Oct 27, 2008 8:25 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Just wondering

There’s not really a “right” or “wrong” answer. As much as we all like to pretend that resume ranking takes out the assumptions in voting, several people have pointed out that it really just pushes them back one level. Margins and how you deal with them are part of that. (For example, what would a 33-point margin against Syracuse really tell us?) It’s a “to each his own” kind of thing.

Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.

by cocknfire on Oct 28, 2008 11:50 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Agreed

One of the reasons I decided to phase in the resume approach gradually this season is that it does take subjectivity to the second level. Under a straight resume approach, I would have ranked Alabama and East Carolina highly after their week one wins based upon my perception of the quality of their opponents, neither of whom was as good as I had anticipated.

Margins, though, are important to some (though not to an absolute) extent. There is no formula, and human judgments and perceptions necessarily come into play. Whether this clouds or clarifies the issues, or a little bit of both, is open for debate.

Which, when you think about it, is half the fun of it.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Oct 28, 2008 12:53 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oklahoma schools

Kyle, I would be very interested in a resume comparison of Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.

Of note..

1. OU-TX was a neutral-site game. OSU-TX was in Austin.
2. OU-Kansas was in Norman. OSU Missouri was in Columbia.
3. OU hosted TCU, Cincinnati, Chattanooga (FCS) and won at Washington. OSU hosted Troy, Houston, Missouri State(FCS) and won at Washington State. Slight edge to OU for playing TCU, but are they that impressive outside of the BYU win? And do we even know that this year’s BYU team is any good?

by wino1618 on Oct 27, 2008 6:32 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Okie State played better defense than Okie

I think Oklahoma should be lower and, perhaps, Ok State higher. Having them in the ballpark is what matters, because (like Georgia and Florida) who was 5 and who was 6 will be irrelevant after a head to head meeting. But based on resume, the quality loss of the Cowboys is more quality than the quality loss of the Sooners. Same thing really with Texas Tech. We’ll know in a week if they are for real.
I know already, but I understand going through the formality of actually having Texas beat them before factoring a loss into their ranking.

by Travis Rice on Oct 27, 2008 6:50 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

RE: Penn State

I’m using Sagarin as my soup de jure because he uses margin of victory in his rankings (not the BCS list, but the one I’m using).

1 Texas
-best win: #5 OU
-loss: n/a
2 Alabama
-best win: #8 UGA
-loss: n/a
3 Southern Cal
-best win: #12 OSU
-loss: #17 Oregon State
4 Oklahoma
-best win: #14 TCU
-loss: #1 Texas
5 Georgia
-best win: #21 LSU
-loss: #4 Bama
6 Florida
-best win: #21 LSU
-loss: #45 Mississippi
7 Texas Tech
-best win: #29 Nebraska
-loss: n/a
8 Penn State
-best win: #12 OSU
-loss: n/a

So I understand Texas and Bama. If you really call yourself a resume voter you can’t have Texas Tech ahead of PSU, their best win is an OT squeaker against a three loss team that’s not in the top 25. As for the rest, Penn State’s best win is better than every single one loss team you ranked ahead of them and, of course, they don’t have losses. Florida is inexcusable with a loss to Mississippi, and I don’t know how you can rank OU and UGA ahead of PSU without a win better than one the Nittany Lions are sporting. Penn State beat the team that USC lost to and they share quality wins (with the difference being that PSU won on the road, USC won at home).

There is also something fundamentally wrong with dropping both PSU and OSU 5-6 spots after they play each other. That means you are using a heckofalotta discretion about who is “good” and who is “bad” without any frame of reference. This is especially difficult to understand when you consider that you admit to only watching “the last five minutes of the Ohio State-Penn State game.”

I’m clearly bias and hope this didn’t come off too harsh, I mean well, but I’m just not buying it.

by Kevin HD on Oct 28, 2008 2:48 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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