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Oklahoma State vs. Georgia

Georgia gets ready to open a fresh season, full of potential, full of possibilities. They face the Cowboys' offense which has been dubbed the "Greatest Show on Earth." A much-hyped, innovative offense that spreads things out and forces you to defend the entire field traipses into Athens hoping for a marquee win to catapult the program into the big-time. Not only are Bulldog faithful a little nervous, but pundits are calling for an upset. Haven't we been here before?

Well, we all know Boise State was unsuccessful in their bid to knock off the Dawgs. Now, the question is being asked again. Can an up-and-coming team with a lot of offensive talent win on the road in a packed, loud, rowdy SEC stadium... at night?

That's what I've set out to answer: Can Oklahoma State wrangle Georgia in Athens? ESPN tried to answer. Forget the fact that Bill freakin' Curry gave Georgia's point of view. Forget, also, that Jim Donnan gives the final take. Let's revise this preview from the Realist's perspective.

Mike Gottfried's take on Okie State in a nutshell:
1) Punt returner Perrish Cox is good.
2) Bobby Reid can run the ball as well as pass it. Georgia will likely play a lot of zone to defend against this.
3) Adarius Bowman will move around a lot to prevent Georgia from double-covering him.
4) Tight end Brandon Pettigrew will be a valuable weapon.
5) Control the ball on offense.
6) Move around on defense to disrupt UGA's rookie offensive line.
7) Okie State wins the special teams battle.

Now, instead of Bill Curry, noted Georgia hater, Georgia will be taken over by me, The Realist:
1) Calvin Johnson > Adarius Bowman
Georgia had some success against Calvin Johnson... to put it mildly. Even if Adarius Bowman is as good as Calvin Johnson, Okie State will need another receiver to step up and be that go-to guy. Sure, Georgia doesn't have Paul Oliver back there to shut down Bowman, but that's of little importance. The safeties played a big role the past two years against Calvin Johnson, with Demario Minter drawing shut-down duty two years ago. These young corners are fast enough, and, with help over the top, should be fine in coverage.
2) Dantrell Savage is a threat.
The rush defense needs significant improvement. Hopefully, with added speed at linebacker, UGA can neutralize this threat for most of the game. 100 yards is probably inevitable, but avoiding big plays is vital.
3) Kregg Lumpkin, Thomas Brown, Knowshon Moreno
Run these horses like there is no tomorrow. Force Okie State to pull eight in the box, then play-action them to death. I think Georgia could rush for over 200 yards in this game between the three of these backs.
4) Bobby Reid is just slightly better than Reggie Ball.
That's heresy, right?
Here's the stats for the two players against the (arguably) six toughest teams each quarterback played last year. You tell me which one is Reggie Ball:

Quarterback A played against the #16, 22, 23, 46, 56, & 58 teams ranked by total defense in 2006. His stats in those games:
61-127 (48%) 830 yards, 5 TD 6 INT

Quarterback B played against the #1, 7, 8, 13, 17, & 36 teams ranked by total defense in 2006.
His stats in those games:
61-144 (42.4%) 943 yards, 11 TD, 7 INT

Any guesses? The level of defensive competition likely gave it away. Reggie Ball is quarterback B, but he'll always be #1 in my heart. That means Bobby Reid is quarterback A. One thing to note is that Reid is a little injury prone. He played sparingly against Texas A&M due to injury. He also missed time against Baylor (which wasn't included above), and Oklahoma as well... although I could be mistaken in that game. One attribute Reid has over Ball is height. He's 6'3" instead of 5'3". Anyway, back to the show...

5) Georgia will win the special teams battle.
The return game is flat sick. I wouldn't be surprised if Georgia ran two kicks back for touchdowns. And Coutu? You kiddin' me? Georgia wins 11 games last year if Coutu doesn't go down. Gnaw on that one for a minute. Coutu is the best kicker in college football. And, I doubt Georgia will punt all that often, so who cares who the punter is? Mark this one down. Georgia will dominate on special teams.

If you want to see some Okie State action against a comparable team, here's a link to the Okie State vs. Alabama Independence Bowl from last year. Notice what things Georgia does not need to do:
1) Miss 85 assignments on one play, and then fumble.
2) Let Bobby Reid lob a pass to Adarius Bowman on a corner route. That should be picked off 58% of the time and knocked away the other 42% of the time. The corners have to rely on the safety help on the inside and not let the receivers get outside of them.
3) Passes to offensive linemen are acts of desperation. Let's try to avoid that.
4) No soft zones with 3 minutes left and the score tied. I hate soft zones as much as Kyle hates Auburn. Maybe more.
5) Never, ever, for the love of all things sacred, never let Mike Shula coach our football team.

Thank you. That is all.

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