Who wins and who loses if Georgia State starts a I-AA football program?  

Georgia Southern will be a big loser.  I-AA caliber football players from Metro Atlanta will likely much prefer Atlanta to Statesboro.  And I'm sure more than a few from below the gnat line will also be tempted by the bright lights of the big city.

Longer term, Georgia Tech will probably also be a loser.  Their location in Hotlanta is one of the few positive things going for the program.  But as Georgia State grows their program, they will compete with Tech for marginal D1 athletes interested in playing in Atlanta.  Tech will not likely lose many highly touted recruits to State, but their depth chart will take a hit.

The direct impact on UGA should be negligible over any reasonable forecasting time horizon.  Of course as Tech's fortunes wane, UGA's strength of schedule will decline.