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More Minus Than Plus: Why an Extra Game Would Solve Nothing

[I]nstead of talking about this Fiesta Bowl like it was some one-in-a-million event, we probably ought to be asking, "Should Boise State have an opportunity to play Ohio State?"

Peter Bean, Burnt Orange Nation


Unsurprisingly, Peter has identified a legitimate question, to which I (with apologies to Sunday Morning Quarterback for providing an early preview of our upcoming postseason playoff debate) shall endeavor to provide a partial response in a manner worthy of Peter's effusive praise, for which I remain most humbly grateful. (Try diagramming that sentence!)

Based upon his belief in the necessity of objectivity in sports, LD takes the position (which he defends with an extremely well-articulated and nuanced argument) that any undefeated Division I-A college football team legitimately may claim a championship, since that squad was not beaten on the field. (I am oversimplifying LD's thoughtful and sophisticated position considerably and I would encourage everyone to read his essay, which was written in response to my own posting upon the subject and to which I offered a brief reply, in its entirety.)

While I respect LD's perspective, I do not share it wholeheartedly, as I believe in resume ranking, which takes into account not just wins and losses, but also other pertinent factors such as strength of schedule and margin of victory, applying subjective judgments to glean the significance of those objective facts. For this reason, I believe Boise State deserves consideration as a national championship contender, but I am reserving decision until all of the games have been played.

There may be more than one team clad in orange and blue standing between you and this, bub.

Those wishing for a definitive answer who are sufficiently realistic to acknowledge that a playoff will not come, if at all, for many years have a solution, the compromise commonly called "plus-one." The existing bowl structure is preserved, complete with the existing B.C.S. tie-ins, and, after the dust has settled, the top two teams in the country compete in a post-postseason mini-playoff to determine the national title.

A Buckeye victory in next Monday night's game would produce suitable circumstances for the plus-one scenario to be played out, as Ohio State and Boise State would be the only remaining Division I-A unbeatens. This, the plus-one advocates contend, would be a situation ripe for a final, definitive national championship showdown between the Broncos and the Buckeyes.

The problem, of course, is that, short of Xon's committee structure being implemented, schedules are set in advance but hindsight is 20/20. If a plus-one format had been implemented for the 2006 season and Boise State and Ohio State both won their bowl games in the desert, the proponents of the plus-one system would have appeared prescient.

What if another outcome came to pass, though? The Broncos beat Oklahoma on a two-point conversion in overtime; realistic scenarios under which the Sooners emerged victorious abound. What then? Under those circumstances, a Buckeye win in Glendale would have left Ohio State as the lone unbeaten team . . . to face whom in the remaining plus-one game? 12-1 Boise State? 12-1 Louisville? 12-1 Wisconsin?

Ladies and gentlemen, the plus-one national championship game . . . between Big Ten champion Ohio State and Big Ten second runner-up Wisconsin! (Photograph from Sports Illustrated.)

Doesn't that put us right back where we started? Aren't there strength of schedule arguments then to be mounted on behalf of 12-2 Florida and 12-2 Oklahoma, of 11-2 Michigan and 11-2 Southern Cal, of 11-2 Auburn and the 11-2 Sugar Bowl champion? If the Gators won in Glendale, would the Buckeyes get a rematch?

The plus-one proposal looks great on paper, as long as there are two undefeated teams once the bowl games are over . . . two and only two, no more and no less. The plus-one solution would have solved nothing in 2004, when three teams (Auburn, Southern California, and Utah) remained unscathed even after the bowl games.

The plus-one scenario wouldn't have helped last year, either, when the Longhorns stood alone atop the heap in the aftermath of the Rose Bowl and the second spot in the extra one-game playoff bowl would have been up for grabs among 11-1 Penn State, 12-1 Southern California, 11-1 Texas Christian, and 11-1 West Virginia. Should the Trojans really have gotten a rematch? If so, and if U.S.C. won the second time around, why should the Trojans' loss in the Granddaddy of 'Em All have counted less than the Longhorns' loss in the Red-Headed Stepchild of 'Em All? Should another contender have been given a shot? If so, which one? Isn't this the very controversy the plus-one concept was designed to alleviate?

More to the point, should Texas really have been forced to prove itself again after beating what E.S.P.N. had proclaimed the greatest team of all time? Had the 'Horns been made to play one more game---exhausted, exhilarated, spent from celebration and exertion, or just plain unfortunate victims of the percentages---and had they lost to, say, the Nittany Lions, wouldn't the national title have been tainted? Wouldn't that spectacular Rose Bowl have been diminished? Wouldn't Texas have deserved a second shot thereafter?

The 2006 Rose Bowl, Part II . . . because the sequel is always as good as the original! (Image from The Z Review.)

Plus-one proponents point to 2003 as the clearest case for their cause. Had Southern California, the No. 1 team in the sportswriters' poll, played Louisiana State, the No. 1 team in the coaches' poll, following the Rose and Sugar Bowls, we would have had a clear-cut national champion . . . but would we have?

Didn't Miami (Ohio), led by future Super Bowl-winning quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, go 13-1 in 2003? Didn't Boise State also finish that campaign with a 13-1 record? The Broncos were thought unworthy then, but B.S.U. might have surprised us at the end of the 2003 season, just as the team with the blue field surprised us at the end of the 2006 season.

The plus-one option is no solution; in its effort to find middle ground, it succeeds only in reaching a muddled compromise which is neither fish nor fowl. Those who favor a postseason tournament believe the plus-one scenario is not playoff enough; it matches two teams rather than the 16, eight, or four preferred by advocates of a tourney-style system.

We who oppose such a radical transformation of the game, on the other hand, believe a plus-one approach incorporates too many of the elements of a playoff format, creating problems which would only be multiplied by the inevitable creeping expansion of the field to include basketball-style brackets that merely caused us to exchange one set of arguments for another in order to achieve an ersatz certitude that served the interests neither of the fans nor of the game.

You know what would make my argument complete? Why, a Jimmy Smits quotation, of course! (Photograph from NNDB.)

Perhaps two undefeated Division I-A teams will remain after all of the games have been played . . . although a national championship-clinching upset in the desert in a game involving Ohio State hardly would be unprecedented. If we are left with a pair of unbeatens and the need to choose between them, then that will be the hand we have been dealt and I find nothing in the least unsatisfactory about taking a final vote to decide between the last two contenders remaining after a series of skirmishes in the initial series of contests.

That, after all, is how we decide such mundane matters as selecting leaders of the free world, through primaries to narrow the field and general elections to settle matters once just two prospects remain. If I am not mistaken, we employ a similar system to pick the winner of "American Idol."

In an episode of "N.Y.P.D. Blue," Jimmy Smits's character told an old friend who had fallen in with a bad crowd that, if he wanted to be a wiseguy, he needed to be a wiseguy instead of being half a wiseguy. The same holds true for the college football postseason.

If you want a playoff, have a playoff---though be careful what you wish for, because you just might get it---but the plus-one proposal is designed to produce half a playoff. That is half a playoff too much for me, half a playoff too little for many of you, and the wrong amount of playoff for us all.

Go 'Dawgs!

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Moritorium
Okay, seriously, I think we should put a hold on anymore playoff vs. bowls diatribes until after Spring Games... or at least until after the OSU & FU play the game.
Don't encourage him people.

by fotodog on Jan 4, 2007 9:37 AM EST   0 recs

Once more into the breach
The problem with your analysis quoted below is the preposterous assumption that Texas and USC would have played in the penultimate game of a "plus one" system.

A more reasonable 2005 counterfactual scenario would have matched USC vs. Ohio State and Texas vs. Penn State with the winners meeting in the "plus one" championship game.  

"More to the point, should Texas really have been forced to prove itself again after beating what E.S.P.N. had proclaimed the greatest team of all time? Had the 'Horns been made to play one more game---exhausted, exhilarated, spent from celebration and exertion, or just plain unfortunate victims of the percentages---and had they lost to, say, the Nittany Lions, wouldn't the national title have been tainted? Wouldn't that spectacular Rose Bowl have been diminished? Wouldn't Texas have deserved a second shot thereafter?"

by 34hawk on Jan 4, 2007 5:43 PM EST   0 recs

I doubt that . . .
. . . and I certainly don't think my scenario is "preposterous," but, even assuming that it is, the problem remains the same.

If, under your scenario, Southern California beats Ohio State and Texas beats Penn State, the "plus-one" bowl gives us the same game we would have gotten anyway under the B.C.S. In that situation, plus-one adds zero.

What if Ohio State had beaten Southern Cal? Why should the twice-beaten Buckeyes have gotten a second crack at the Longhorns instead of the Trojans, who had a better record and had not already lost to Texas?

What if Penn State had beaten Texas? Why should the Longhorns' lone loss have been disqualifying and the Nittany Lions' lone loss have been overlooked . . . particularly since Texas would have lost to a better team (Penn State) than Penn State did (Michigan)?

What if both upsets had occurred? Why should Ohio State have gotten a second shot at a Penn State team with a better record that already had beaten the Buckeyes head-to-head?

Anytime we start arbitrarily designating particular games as "the ones that really count," we are setting ourselves up for trouble.

by T Kyle King on Jan 4, 2007 7:53 PM EST   0 recs

Preposterous
I think you'll find, on closer examination, that I choose my words carefully.

I am unfamiliar with any other major sport which forces top seeds to play one another in the earliest rounds of a tournament.  In every other sporting playoff the two top seeds will meet only in the final match.  Preposterous is the most apt description of your oversight in this regard.  

"If, under your scenario, Southern California beats Ohio State and Texas beats Penn State, the "plus-one" bowl gives us the same game we would have gotten anyway under the B.C.S. In that situation, plus-one adds zero."

On the contrary, the plus one system 1) adds two compelling games, and 2) ensures that the very best teams have a chance to win a national championship on the field.  

"Anytime we start arbitrarily designating particular games as "the ones that really count," we are setting ourselves up for trouble."

Designating playoff games as "the ones that really count" is anything but arbitrary.  End of season playoffs are an established and widely respected tradition in the sporting world. In all my years of participating in and observing sporting events I've never heard any player or coach complaining that playoff games should count for less or be balanced against regular season preludes.  Everyone acknowledges and respects the primacy of the playoffs.

And so let me answer your series of very simple questions with very simple answers:

"What if Ohio State had beaten Southern Cal? Why should the twice-beaten Buckeyes have gotten a second crack at the Longhorns instead of the Trojans, who had a better record and had not already lost to Texas?"  

Because they won the playoff game.

What if Penn State had beaten Texas? Why should the Longhorns' lone loss have been disqualifying and the Nittany Lions' lone loss have been overlooked . . . particularly since Texas would have lost to a better team (Penn State) than Penn State did (Michigan)?

Because they lost the playoff game.

What if both upsets had occurred? Why should Ohio State have gotten a second shot at a Penn State team with a better record that already had beaten the Buckeyes head-to-head?

Because they won the playoff game.

by 34hawk on Jan 5, 2007 8:39 AM EST   0 recs

That's the difference between us, 34hawk:
I think the regular season ought to count for more than just the seeding of the tournament.

By the way, I believe you misapprehend the "plus-one" idea, which, as I understand it, is not a bracketed tournament (although I believe it would lead to that).

Instead, I believe the plus-one bowl game is an add-on attached at the end as the second phase of a two-tiered postseason structure, the first tier of which (the bowl system, complete with the B.C.S.) would not change.

As I understand them, plus-one advocates are arguing that we shouldn't change a thing, apart from adding a game at the end . . . which I believe both playoff advocates like you and playoff opponents like me can agree is the worst of all possible worlds.

If I am laboring under a misconception, I regret it and I would be most appreciative if you could provide me with a link to a plus-one proposal that involves re-seeding the bowl games rather than tacking on an extra game in the aftermath of the present bowl structure.

by T Kyle King on Jan 5, 2007 9:33 AM EST   0 recs

A quick Google search during lunch . . .
. . . unearthed this article about the "plus one" concept.

Does anyone have anything else more definitive about the proposal that would clarify how the plus one model would have worked in 2005?

by T Kyle King on Jan 5, 2007 2:57 PM EST   0 recs

Erm...
"Because they won the playoff game."

I'd first like to say that I've enjoyed reading as you and Kyle have exchanged several fine points. And yet, you've boiled your argument down to...that? Essentially, we should all accept the outcome of a playoff because that's just how it is? I'd think that it wouldn't be difficult to find numerous examples throughout history where a norm, though generally accepted at the time, ultimately proved to be less than appropriate. This is why you are correct to question the bowl system (though it is anything but 'generally accepted' at the moment). It is also why Kyle, when debating the merits of a playoff, is entitled to a better response than 'because that's just how it is' (my own rough paraphrase of your argument).

As a supporter of a Big 12 school, I am not in favor of the conference championship game. I do not understand why we'd bother to play through a reasonably thorough 8 games just to determine the competitors in a far less thorough, winner-take-all, single game contest. By that same logic, I am not in favor of a national playoff that would risk reducing the previous games on the schedule to a mere 'regular' season.  

I don't know you well (or at all), but I'd guess you or someone else might ask if the bowl system does not do this very same thing. My answer would be 'no'. The bowl system, as you would agree, is not a playoff. It is a celebration of the season and a final send-off for successful athletes before everyone enters a depressing 9 months sans college football. Schools and cities get extra money and exposure while the supporters have some bonus fun. And not every team (save one) has to go home a loser. Yes, there is always one game in particular that would seem to have very playoff-esque implications (the championship game). Yet even that game is a product of the same formula that allows us fans to see fanciful match-ups in tribute to the concluding season. That pollsters decide to hold one more vote afterwards does not change that the actual match-up was a celebration of the journey of two great teams.

A favorite example of mine is the NBA, a prominent model of a winner-take-all system. Somehow, millions of basketball fans have found it acceptable that there are 82 games for each team, after which not even half (46.67%) of the competitors are eliminated. Beyond that, it requires only a minimum of 4 games to knock out the next half of the league. A bit imbalanced for my taste. To truly understand the farce that is the NBA regular season, consider that the World Cup group stage achieves as much or more (the elimination of the first half of teams) as the NBA regular season in only 3 games! Now, do I think that the World Cup is the best way for determining the best national team on the planet? No. But the World Cup is an example of a pure winner-take-all tournament. It doesn't force upon us the sham that we call a regular season, which in American sports tends to be nothing more than a glorified, overextended knockout round.  It is that that I hope to avoid for college football, in which we are fortunate to not have a 'regular' season.

Speaking of soccer, ever been to Europe? They have this thing called the single table format (you'll have to forgive me, I don't know how to tidily insert a hyperlink within text): http://soccernet.espn.go.com/tables?league=esp.1&cc=5901
At the end of the year, the team with the best overall body of work is named the champion.  A novel concept, eh?  And yet it is one that will become even more foreign when college football adopts a playoff (I'm a pessimist in thinking that it is inevitable).

by Ryan on Jan 5, 2007 5:12 PM EST   0 recs

Much obliged, Ryan
That was clear, detailed, articulate, and reasonable, both as to logic and as to tone.

Nice job. I hope you come by and comment more often.

by T Kyle King on Jan 5, 2007 7:21 PM EST   0 recs

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